臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本文針對全球金融市場經歷百年難得一見之金融海嘯之後，以美國聯邦儲備局(簡稱FED)的利率政策及量化貨幣寬鬆政策所形成的美元指數為中心，探討全球主要經濟體的市場變化。
美國自2008年9月雷曼兄弟事件爆發後，引起了全球金融市場的劇烈衝擊；各國央行亦上了一次震撼教育。而FED也於2008年第四季迅速調降了7碼利率至0.25%，從此美國經歷了整整7年的超低利時期。
因為低利率政策依然喚不起低迷的經濟景氣，FED更分別於2009年3月、2010年11月、2012年9月，共實施了3次的量化貨幣寬鬆政策(Quantitative Easing，QE) 及2011年9月實施1次扭轉操作(Operation Twist，OT)去刺激景氣。而原本於2000年就已實施QE的日本，更因金融海嘯而擴大實施QE；無獨有偶的，歐洲央行也於2015年實施QE。
至此，全球的主要經濟體皆步入了QE，或者是貨幣寬鬆政策的處境中，而全球第二大經濟體的中國卻是透過減稅、降準等不同的貨幣寬鬆政策刺激其國內的景氣。
本研究透過迴歸分析(regression analysis)探討FED於2008-2018所公佈之利率及QE之美元指數，對美國道瓊指數、日本日經225指數、中國上海綜合指數、歐盟(德、法、英) 指數所產生之漣漪效應。以簡單線性迴歸模型、多元線性迴歸模型、最小平方法等方式研究金融海嘯後，美國的利率及貨幣政策對世界主要經濟體之影響。
本研究發現，不論在一階線性模型或最小平方法之下，各變數之間均展現高度顯著性，說明單就股市指數方面而言，美國的利率及貨幣政策有其顯著影響力。

This paper focuses on the financial market after a century of financial tsunami, and explores the market changes of the worlds major economies centering on the US dollar index formed by the US Feds interest rate policy and quantitative monetary easing policy.
Since the outbreak of the Lehman Brothers in 2008/9, the United States has caused terrible shocks in the global financial market, causing central banks to take a course of deteriorating education. The US Federal Reserve also quickly lowered the 7-yard interest rate to 0.25% in the fourth quarter of 2008. Since then, the United States has experienced a period of seven years of ultra-low profit; and because of the low interest rate policy, it still cannot arouse the economic downturn, the US Federal Reserve In March 2009, November 2010, and in September 2012 , it implemented three quantitative monetary easing policies, and September 2011 In the Bureau implemented Operation Twist (OT). Japan, which had implemented quantitative monetary easing in 2000, has expanded its quantitative monetary easing policy due to the financial tsunami. Similarly, the European Central Bank also implemented a quantitative monetary easing policy in 2015. So far, the worlds major economies have stepped into the quantification of monetary easing, while China, the worlds second-largest economy, has stimulated its domestic prosperity through different monetary easing policies such as tax cuts and RRR cuts.
This study uses the regression analysis (Regression analysis) for the US dollar index published by FED2008-2018 and the Quantitative easing (QE) index for the US Dow Jones Index, Japan Nikkei 225 Index, China Shanghai Composite Index, EU (German , French, English) The ripple effect of the index; these worlds major economies conduct simple linear return scale, multiple linear return scale, and the least square method to explore the interest rate and currency of the United States after the financial tsunami in a hundred years. Changes in the impact of policies on the worlds major economies (single research on major stock markets).
The results show that regardless of the first-order linear model or the reentry-scale experimental results, the significance between the variables is highly significant, which proves that the stock market index is single; the US interest rate and monetary policy are successful!

頁次
中文摘要 i
英文摘要 iii
目錄 V
表目錄 vii
圖目錄 viii
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 金融海嘯介紹 2
第三節 美元指數介紹 3
第四節 全球主要經濟體介紹 4
第二章 文獻回顧 7
第一節 景氣蕭條時期 7
第二節 金融全球化 8
第三節 貨幣政策對股市的影響 10
第三章 研究方法 13
第一節 敘述統計 13
第二節 一階線性迴規模型 14
第三節 最小平方法 18
第四章 實證結果分析 22
第一節 資料來源及介紹 22
第二節 一階線性迴規模型 29
第五章 結論與建議 43
第一節 研究結論 43
第二節 研究建議 44
參考文獻 45
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二、英文文獻 46

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