臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

蒙古是個開發中國家，擁有廣大的土地，但卻有少數的人口、相對低廉的勞動及土地成本。由於在1990年代初期，蒙古經濟改採對外開放，並將計畫經濟轉變為市場經濟，故吸引釵h的外來投資，且貿易量亦穩定成長。
因為蒙古擁有大量的金、銅、鈾、煤等天然資源，因此也吸引當今世界各國的注視，導致許多各國來此的對外直接投資(FDI)在此經營及生產，同時也影響蒙古的國內生產毛額(GDP)和貿易。
本研究旨在探究對外直接投資、經濟成長與國際貿易之間在蒙古的關係，並應用時間數序分析進行1995-2010季資料之共整合、因果關係檢定及向量誤差修正模型，以驗證文獻中所建立的假設和確認變數之間的長期穩定關係。結果顯示：FDI、GDP、出口、進口等變數之間皆具有長期的雙向關係，而依Granger因果關係檢定，顯示僅有出口與GDP、出口與進口具有單向的因果關係。

Mongolia is a developing country in Asia having very large territory, small population, cheap labor and land cost. Since the economy was opened up and transferred from planned economy to market economy in the early 1990s, foreign direct investment and amount of foreign trade have been increasing steadily.
Now the world is watching Mongolia and showing interest on it because of its plenty natural resources such as gold, copper, uranium, coal and so on. Also many foreign invested companies invest and run business there. As a result FDI flowing to Mongolia is dramatically and constantly increasing. It influences Gross Domestic Products (GDP) and international trade somehow.
This study investigates the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), economic growth and international trade for Mongolia over the quarterly period from 1995 to 2010 to reveal what kind relationship exist among these three factors.
Co-integration technique, Granger causality test and Vector Error Correction Model are used and co-integration analysis found that all pairs of variables have long run equilibrium relationships, VECModel checked and estimated those long run relationships with direction and Granger causality test revealed that there are two unidirectional causalities between export and GDP; import and export in short run.

CHINESE ABSTRACT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i
ABSTRACT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii
CONTENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 Motivation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.3 Purpose of study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4
1.4 Thesis organization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5
CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW AND HYPOTHESES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
2.1 The relationship between FDI and GDP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
2.2 The relationship between international trade and FDI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
2.3 The relationship between GDP and international trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
2.4 The relationship between export and import . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11

CHAPTER 3 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN MONGOLIA . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

3.1 FDI policy and current situation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
3.2 Economic growth policy and current situation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
3.3 International trade policy and current situation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

CHAPTER 4 EMPIRICAL RESEARCH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

4.1 Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
4.2 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
4.3 Estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
4.4 Implications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSIONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

INTERNET SOURCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

APPENDIX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
List of Figures

Figure 1.1 Mongolian geographic location . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

Figure 3.1 Investor protection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Figure 3.2 FDI trend /1995-2010/. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16
Figure 3.3 FDI growth /2005-2010/ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Figure 3.4 FDI, by countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Figure 3.5 FDI, by sectors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Figure 3.6 GDP trend /1995-2010/. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Figure 3.7 Economic growth, by percent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Figure 3.8 Economic growth, by sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Figure 3.9 Foreign trade /2007-2010/ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Figure 3.10 Trade total turnover /1995-2010/ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Figure 3.11 Export structure, by commodities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Figure 3.12 Export structure, by countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Figure 3.13 Import structure, by commodities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Figure 3.14 Import structure, by countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
List of Tables
Table 4.1 Results of Unit Root Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Table 4.2 Results of Co-integration Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Table 4.3 Results of Long Term Causality Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Table 4.4 Results of Short Term Causality Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

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