臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

因全球氣候變遷，造成極端氣候影響日趨明顯，臺灣雖降雨總量約略不變，但高重現期距降雨事件發生機率增加，衝擊山坡地，造成土壤流失、洪水與土砂災害發生，臺灣面積雖小，人口密度位居世界第二，山坡地佔全臺面積約四分之三，故坡地水土資源保育相當重要，在氣候變遷與社會經濟環境改變的衝擊下，如何讓臺灣山坡地永續經營並維持人民居住環境安全是未來非常重要的環境課題。本研究以4種兼具質性與量性的前瞻分析工具(國際趨勢分析、焦點團體法、德菲法、策略地圖等)與輔助決策工具(艾森豪矩陣)交互運用，規劃因應環境變遷策略以提供決策者參考，並由下而上凝聚多元利害關係人對於水土資源永續利用議題發展共識，研擬短、中、長期水土資源保育前瞻策略，以落實臺灣永續願景目標。
本研究利用降雨及蒸發量等長期氣候資料配合濕潤指數計算全臺水收支之平均值、變異係數及長期趨勢之空間分布，據此篩選淹水、乾旱及土砂災害潛勢之三處重點集水區，並提出相關問題及因應對策。結果顯示，朴子溪流域因濕潤指數之變異係數較大且平均值最高，因此為淹水潛勢重點區位；新店溪集水區出口之臺北站因濕潤指數為負趨勢，故為乾旱潛勢區位；旗山溪集水區則因土砂災害較為嚴重，且上游地區濕潤指數高，因此為土砂災害潛勢區位。
朴子溪流域之保育方式宜於中上游段配合農地廣設農塘；新店溪集水區因長期水收支趨勢屬乾旱，在平時因乾旱會造成水域之農業非點源污染物濃度飆高；極端降雨下，坡面崩塌可能造成集水區原水濁度上升，影響大臺北地區用水品質，因此須注意非點源污染之問題。旗山溪集水區則應找出崩塌地植生復育優選區位，嚴防崩塌地擴大及二次災害發生。最後，以短、中、長期水土資源保育前瞻策略為核心，參照專家會議前、後歸納整理之背景資料，做為行動方案擬定資料庫，繪製各重點集水區因應氣候變遷調適策略之目標魚骨圖，明確提供決策單位規劃亟需保育管理集水區之施政方針。

Due to global climate changes, the impact caused by extreme climate has become more and more compelling. In Taiwan, the total rainfall stays in the same level. The rainfall with high recurrence interval happens frequently, leading to soil loss of slope-land, and it may further result in floods and sediment hazards. Although Taiwan is a small island, the population density is ranked at the second highest around the world. Moreover, third-fourth of Taiwan is slope-land, so the soil and water conservation (SWC) is rather important. Therefore, under the impacts of climate and social environmental changes, how to maintain the sustainable development of slopeland and the safety of living environment in Taiwan becomes a crucial issue. This study adopted 4 foresight analyses to cover both qualitative and quantitative aspects, including International Trend Analysis, Focus Group, Delphi method and Strategy Roadmap. In addition, Eisenhower Matrix was taken as a decision support tool to achieve an unbiased result. The findings of this study can contribute to reach consensus among multi-stakeholders on sustainable development of soil and water resources and to lay down foresight strategies of SWC in short-term, mid-term and long-term bases. Ultimately, the goal of sustainability can be realized in Taiwan.
The spatial distribution of water budget in Taiwan was calculated from moisture index derived from long-term data of rainfall and evaporation. According to the values of mean and coefficient of variation of moisture index, the key watersheds with drought, flood and sediment disaster respectively were screened out and the corresponding strategies were proposed in this study. Results show that the basin of Puzih river is a crucial flooding potential area due to having larger coefficient of variation and/or highest average in moisture index; Sindian river watershed with drought potential shows that there is a negative tendency in moisture index; Cishan river watershed has the potential of encountering the secondary debris disaster due to large amount of landslides occurred in the watershed during Typhoon Morakot and located at the areas with high value of moisture index.
The conservation method in the Puzih river basin was recommended to construct farm ponds. Because the long-term trend of water budget is drought in the Sindian river watershed, agriculture non-point source pollutant induced water pollution will increase at the usual time, and the water turbidity will also increase abruptly due to landslide during extreame rainfall. Therefore, the best management practices for non-point sources pollution controls in the Sindian river watershed should be considered. The Cishan river watershed was suggested to find out the treatment priority of landslides for enlargement and secondary disaster prevention. Finally, the database of action program can be drafted using the core foresight strategies of the short, medium and long term conservation resources coupled with the background information of pre- and/or post- expert meeting. The goal fishbone diagram of adaptation strategies can then be drawn as the references of related authorities for policy making under climate change.

摘要 i
ABSTRACT iii
目錄 v
圖目錄 viii
表目錄 x
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究流程及架構 2
第二章 文獻回顧 5
第一節 氣候變遷衝擊預測及現況 5
一. 全球暖化引致極端氣候加劇 5
二. 區域氣候變遷影響 6
三. 世界各地自然災害風險 9
第二節 各國前瞻運作計畫 12
一. 前瞻定義與內涵 12
二. 科技前瞻與政策前瞻 12
三. 各國前瞻活動 14
第三節 前瞻方法之應用 24
第四節 前瞻策略規劃 25
第五節 國內外氣候變遷與減緩調適策略 27
第六節 極端氣候下臺灣地區氣候變遷情況 35
第七節 水土保持設施之調適策略 38
第八節 「臺灣氣候變遷科學報告」綜整 43
第九節 因應氣候變遷於臺灣水土保持策略之探討 45
第三章 材料與方法 48
第一節 研究樣區 48
第二節 研究材料 49
第三節 研究方法 52
一. 前瞻操作方法 52
二. 重點集水區篩選之方法 60
第四章 結果與討論 68
第一節 前瞻策略規劃 68
一. 國際趨勢與臺灣現況資源盤點分析 68
二. 多元利害關係人對臺灣坡地保育發展之願景與功能定位 70
三. 水土資源永續利用之德菲問卷調查 73
四. 前瞻議題之策略地圖規劃 79
第二節 全臺水收支情形 81
第三節 全臺氣候分類結果 82
第四節 重點集水區篩選 85
一. 淹水潛勢重點集水區－朴子溪流域 85
二. 乾旱潛勢重點集水區－新店溪集水區 88
三. 土石災害重點集水區－旗山溪集水區 89
第五節 重點集水區之調適策略與行動方針 90
一. 朴子溪流域 90
二. 新店溪集水區 92
三. 旗山溪集水區 95
四. 重點集水區因應氣候變遷保育策略綜整 96
五. 重點集水區實例佐證 98
六. 重點集水區保育管理建議 104
第五章 結論與建議 106
第一節 結論 106
一. 前瞻工具應用 106
二. 前瞻環境建構 106
三. 前瞻成果應用 107
第二節 建議 107
一. 前瞻運作工具交互應用建議 107
二. 重點集水區保育策略之整體建議 108
三. 政府部門因應氣候變遷影響之水土保持調適策略操作建議 108
參考文獻 110
附錄 附-1
附錄一 水土資源永續利用德菲法第一回合問卷 附-1
附錄二 水土資源永續利用德菲法第二回合問卷 附-30

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