臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

私人運具為都市空氣污染的主要來源之一，身為世界上機車持有率最高的國家，機車對於都市內空氣汙染及國人身體健康皆造成相當程度的問題。雖然機車市場上已有替代的電動機車且有政府的補助，但電動機車的市占率僅有0.3%，故了解民眾對於新能源機車之偏好為本研究的主要課題。本研究調查使用者對於新能源機車的偏好以預測未來機車的發展及對於都市土地使用可能的衝擊，「新能源機車」一詞在本研究中指的是電動機車及氫能燃料電池機車。本研究透過問卷調查使用者基於現有使用經驗下對於機車的偏好並利用多項羅吉特模型描述使用者在傳統機車及新能源機車間的選擇行為。
本研究透過網路在臺灣收集了372份有效問卷。結果顯示受試者的各項社會經濟屬性及車輛選擇間的關係並不顯著，但受試者對於金錢相關的屬性如補助及車輛售價則是有負向顯著偏好。除此之外，車輛的表現如：爬坡力及續航力呈現正向顯著偏好而補充能源時間則是有負向顯著偏好。多項羅吉特模型除了可以展現要重要的因子外，也能預測未來發展並應用在政策上，本研究預測了金錢對於消費者在傳統機車及新能源機車間選擇的機率變化，結果顯示在售價扣除補助之後，約為五萬至六萬新台幣間的價錢與才與傳統機車有相當的選擇機率，可能為未來推動新能源機車最有競爭力的價錢。本研究結果可作為政府政策擬定及機車業者未來研發方向的參考。

This study aims to investigate users’ preferences for new energy motorcycles for the purpose of estimating the future development of this mode of transportation and its impacts on urban land use. The preferences for using motorcycles based on current experiences were surveyed using a questionnaire to develop a multinomial logit model for describing the choice behaviour among conventional motorcycles and new energy motorcycles. New energy motorcycle here refers to electric motorcycles and hydrogen fuel-cell motorcycles. The data from a total of 372 returned questionnaires from Taiwan were analysed. The results showed that respondents’ socio-demographic characteristics were insignificant with regard to choice behaviour and that these consumers were sensitive to financial attributes such as incentives and vehicle prices. In addition, vehicle performance, such as hill climbing ability, driving range and refuelling time, were found to be significant to the motorcycle type choice. The multinomial logit model developed is able to reveal the critical factors to apply in policy making. The trade-offs of vehicle price and incentives of new energy motorcycles and conventional motorcycles were also learned. The results should be of great help to new energy motorcycle developers and the urban policymakers.

ABSTRACT IN CHINESE i
ABSTRACT IN ENGLISH ii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT iii
1. INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Objectives 2
1.3 Contributions 2
2. LITERATURE REVIEW 3
2.1 The Development of New Energy Motorcycles and Policy 3
2.2 Assessing the Preference for New Energy Vehicles 5
2.3 Methods for Assessing the Preferences 6
3. METHODOLOGY 15
3.1 Experimental Design and Sample 15
3.2 Questionnaire Design 17
3.3 Questionnaire Versions 22
3.4 Data Collection 23
3.5 Using Multinomial Logit to Describe the Users’ Preferences 23
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 25
4.1 Statistics of the Survey 25
4.2 Calibration of the Multinomial Logit 29
4.3 Rating of Hydrogen Storage Schemes 36
5. TEST OF INDEPENDENCE OF IRRELEVANT ALTERNATIVES (IIA) 37
6. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS 39
7. SUGGESTIONS AND FUTURE WORK 41
REFERENCES 42
APPENDIX 45

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