臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

摘要
學號：M9817010
論文題目：臺灣黑熊族群存續力分析
總頁數：153
學校名稱：國立屏東科技大學 系（所）別：野生動物保育研究所
畢業時間及摘要別：101學年度第1學期碩士學位論文摘要
研究生：林容安 指導教授：黃美秀 博士
論文摘要內容：
物種滅絕為當今保育的重要課題，野外族群除了面臨人為威脅之外，同時面臨其他的潛在風險，包含族群統計隨機性、環境隨機性、自然災難又或是遺傳隨機性等。對於受威脅的族群來說，探究物種或族群的滅絕風險，並釐清關鍵因素，有助於適時地提出有效的經營管理方案，以提升族群未來的存續力。其中族群存續力分析（population viability analysis, PVA）為當今最有力且普遍應用的保育工具之一。
欲了解族群的存續力，則必須探討導致目標物種之所以造成族群衰退的原因。全球八種熊類，普遍受到的威脅即人類的過度利用，以及棲息地破壞（Garshelis, 2009）。臺灣黑熊雖為法定的瀕臨絕種野生動物，但同樣存在上述兩種的風險，而人為狩獵活動是目前威脅臺灣黑熊生存的重要因素（Hwang, 2003）。本研究旨在利用VORTEX模型，模擬不同的狩獵程度下，臺灣黑熊之族群存續力的表現，並評估關鍵的狩獵閾值，以及藉由敏感性分析探討影響結果之關鍵參數。有鑑於臺灣黑熊實地資料的缺乏，特別是現今全島族群量與承載量，藉由回顧相似物種的數據，予以評估、選擇出最適合應用的參數，以能呈現最貼近事實的結果。
藉由美國東南部美洲黑熊的族群密度推算現今族群量可能為100到700隻，承載量有5,000到10,000隻之多。從預測結果顯示，當沒有任何狩獵的威脅壓力時，無論初始族群量為多少隻，承載量為7,000隻的狀況下，族群數量皆有顯著的成長，於未來100年可達2,000隻以上。然而，面對實際的狩獵壓力時，即便在初始族群量是相對較大的數量下（600~700），於狩獵相當低的程度，就可導致族群成長趨勢的下降，並隨著狩獵程度的增加，更加劇族群趨向滅絕的命運。當以增加死亡率來模擬時，死亡率增加3%族群就開始呈現負成長，這表示對狩獵程度的容忍力僅能接受2%，換算成初期狩獵量，相等於有2~14隻，隨著初始族群量的增加可接受較多的個體死亡。然就收穫量的模擬之下，又更清楚呈現當初始族群量為100~300隻時，完全不能忍受每年5隻的收穫量，當初始族群量為400~500隻僅接受每年5隻的收穫量，而初始族群量為600~700隻可容許每年10隻的收穫量。藉由敏感性分析的檢測，確定雌性（亞成體與成體）死亡率，以及狩獵是最為影響臺灣黑熊未來的族群存續力，於未來應努力進行此兩方面的研究。
本研究所模擬的結果顯示，狩獵對臺灣黑熊族群未來存續有關鍵性的影響。然而，這些結果仍有可能是處於高估的狀態，因為本研究並未模擬棲息地破碎化、族群隔離效應等威脅的作用，所設定的假設條件與模型結構也是相對較為保守。面對現今全島族群量還未明朗之時，為確保族群的永續力，本研究認為實際上可能還無法容許少數個體的損失。因此，特別呼籲應加強非法狩獵取締等相關工作，同時也須多元發展其他的保育措施，方以達成終極臺灣黑熊族群永續的目標。
關鍵詞：臺灣黑熊、狩獵、族群存續力分析、VORTEX、敏感性分析、初始族群量、承載量

Abstract
Student ID：M9817010
Title of Thesis：Population viability analysis of Formosan black bears (Ursus thibetanus formosanus)
Total Page：153
Name of Institute：Institute of Wildlife Conservation, National Pingtung University of Science and Technology
Graduate Date：January 2013 Degree Conferred：Master
Name of Student：Rong-An Lin Adviser：Dr. Mei-Hsiu Hwang
The Contents of Abstract in This Thesis：
Extinction is an important issue in conservation. Species survival is threatened by human, as well as catastrophes, demographic, environmental, genetic stochastic events. Population viability analysis（PVA）provides a quantitative means for predicting the probability of extinction and for prioritizing conservation needs. This is one of the most powerful and pervasive tools in conservation biology.
To understand population viability, it is essential to know what has caused the population to decline. For bear populations two principal factors are direct human exploitation and habitat destruction. In Taiwan, poaching is one of the primary threats to Formosan black bears（Ursus thibetanus formosanus）. In this study, a population viability analysis was used to evaluate the impact of hunting on Formosan black bear, and to estimate critical hunting levels that could be used as quasi-extinction thresholds for future population modeling. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis was conducted to know which model parameters are key factors that strongly determine population dynamics.
We applied the VORTEX（Version 9.99b） program where each scenario was simulated 1,000 times over 100 years. Assuming an initial population size of 100~700 and a carrying capacity of 7,000 bears, the results suggested that when there was no hunting, the population size continued to increase rapidly, with the final population size growing to more than 2,000 individuals after 100 years. But when simulating hunting by increasing the mortality rates to 3%, all initial population would be in decline. However, when we simulate the impact of hunting with harvest（kill/year）, the probability of extinction within the next 100 years was over 10% for harvesting 15 bears every year. And results suggest that the female mortality rate and hunting rate have the most significant impact on population viability. To conduct a more extensive PVA, it requires a systematic monitoring program and more focused research.
In summary, hunting is a key factor that strongly determines the population dynamics of bears, regardless of the fact that other potential risks have not been taken into account. Therefore, proactive conservation actions to reduce illegal hunting will be critical for ensuring long-term bear population viability.
Keywords：Ursus thibetanus formosanus, hunting, population viability analysis, VORTEX, sensitivity analysis, initial population size, carrying capacity
 

目錄
摘要………………………………………………………………………….Ⅰ
Abstract……………………………………………………………………...Ⅲ
謝誌………………………………………………………………………….Ⅴ
目錄………………………………………………………………………….Ⅷ
圖表目錄…………………………………………………………………….XI
壹、 前言……………………………………………………………………...1
一、族群存續力分析…………………………………………………....1
二、分析臺灣黑熊族群存續力的重要性………………………………4
貳、材料與方法……………………………………………………………...9
一、模型選擇……………………………………………………………9
二、資料參考來源……………………………………………………....9
三、初始族群量……………………………………………....................9
四、承載量……………………………………………………………..11
五、模式其他參數的設定……………………………………………..14
六、情境模擬…………………………………………………………..20
七、輸出資料…………………………………………………………..26
八、族群存續力之等級分類…………………………………………..27
九、敏感度分析………………………………………………………..27
參、結果…………………………………………………………………….32
一、初始族群量………………………………………………………..32
二、承載量……………………………………………………………..34
三、族群存續力之等級分類…………………………………………..36
四、族群存續力分析…………………………………………………..37
五、敏感性分析………………………………………………………..42
肆、討論…………………………………………………………………….46
一、野外臺灣黑熊族群狀況…………………………………………..46
二、族群存續力分析…………………………………………………..50
三、敏感性分析………………………………………………………..57
四、臺灣黑熊保育之展望………………………………......................58
伍、結論…………………………………………………………………….63
參考文獻…………………………………………………………………….64
附錄1、適合使用VORTEX軟體的物種及族群特徵…………………..129
附錄2、本研究在無模擬狩獵下，不同初始族群量的輸出資料……....130
附錄3、本研究藉由增加死亡率來模擬狩獵情境下的輸出資料……....132
附錄4、本研究藉由災難來模擬狩獵情境下的輸出資料……………....136
附錄5、本研究藉由收穫量來模擬狩獵情境下的輸出資料……………140
附錄6、本研究進行敏感性分析之參數變化下的輸出資料…………....143
作者簡介…………………………………………………………………...153 
圖表目錄
圖1、利用物種和風險資料的可得性來選擇適合的方案流程圖………..85
圖2、估計初始族群量流程圖……………………………………………..86
圖3、估計承載量流程圖…………………………………………………..87
圖4、利用Maxent模式分析臺灣黑熊預測地理分布，以玉山國家公園地區平均的預測邏輯機率值區分高、低密度……………………….88
圖5、利用海拔1,000m區分基本型承載量面積之高、低密度區………89
圖6、利用保護區內外區分基本型承載量面積之高、低密度區………..90
圖7、利用海拔1,000m區分進階型承載量面積之高、低密度區………91
圖8、利用保護區內外區分進階型承載量面積之高、低密度區………..92
圖9、利用海拔1,000m區分高階型承載量面積之高、低密度區……....93
圖10、利用保護區內外區分高階型承載量面積之高、低密度區………94
圖11、無狩獵威脅下，未來100年間族群量變化趨勢…………………95
圖12、利用增加死亡率來模擬狩獵，未來100年間滅絕率與族群量的變化趨勢……………………………………………………………...96
圖13、利用增加死亡率來模擬狩獵，不同初始族群量於各程度的狩獵壓力中，未來100年滅絕率與族群量的表現……………………...98
圖14、利用災難來模擬狩獵，未來100年間滅絕率與族群量的變化趨勢……………………………………………………………..........99
圖15、利用災難來模擬狩獵，不同初始族群量於各程度的狩獵壓力中，未來100年滅絕率與族群量的表現…………………………….101
圖16、利用收穫量來模擬狩獵下，未來100年間滅絕率與族群量的變化趨勢……………………………………………………………….102
圖17、利用收穫量來模擬狩獵下，不同初始族群量於各程度的狩獵壓力中，未來100年間滅絕率與族群量的表現………………….....104
圖18、利用敏感性分析，了解影響成長率之相對重要因子………..... 105
圖19、利用敏感性分析，了解影響未來100年間族群量之相對重要因子………………………………………………………………….106
圖20、利用敏感性分析，了解影響滅絕率與遺傳多樣性之相對重要因子…………………………………………………….....................107

表1、回顧美國東南部地區美洲黑熊族群密度…………………………108
表2、國內圈養臺灣黑熊的繁殖記錄以及野外目擊母熊帶小熊之次數…………………………………………………………………...110
表3、公家單位以及私人圈養臺灣黑熊的繁殖紀錄…………………....111
表4、回顧美國東南部地區美洲黑熊之死亡率…………………………112
表5、藉由增加死亡率1%~10%模擬狩獵，各年齡層死亡率與環境變異的標準差設定………………………………………………………….113
表6、各性別年齡層所模擬的收穫量……………………………………114
表7、以VORTEX模擬臺灣黑熊於7種方案模擬之參數設定………..117
表8、VORTEX模擬臺灣黑熊於理想狀況下之各項參數設定………...118
表9、進行敏感性分析之參數變化定…………………………………....119
表10、臺灣黑熊初始族群數量的評估…………………………………..120
表11、臺灣黑熊承載量的評估…………………………………………..121
表12、各方案模擬下存續力的評斷標準………………………………..122
表13、無狩獵威脅下，未來100年間族群存續力的表現……………..123
表14、利用增加死亡率來模擬狩獵下，於未來100年間族群存續力的表現………………………………………………………………….124
表15、利用災難來模擬狩獵下，未來100年間族群存續力的表現…..125
表16、利用收穫量來模擬狩獵下，未來100年間族群存續力的表現..126
表17、利用增加死亡率來模擬狩獵之初期的狩獵量換算……………..127
表18、本研究與1994年臺灣黑熊族群與棲地存續分析之參數設定....128
 

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