臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本論文主要目的在於探討利用模糊模型的方法來分析負載的用電特性。負載特性為電力系統的最基本資料，其分析工作是電力事業經營者的重要課題。由於負載用電特性的分析工作是一項分析非線性資料的研究工作，適合採用模糊模型的觀點與手法。
模糊模型為一組用來描述系統行為的模糊IF-THEN規則。本論文的主要目標在於根據已蒐集建立的負載用電量測資料，構建出負載用電行為的模糊模型，以作為負載特性分析工作的基礎。本論文利用模糊模型於實際負載用電量分析，描述出各用戶的用電量與時間及其他變量(溫度、溼度)之間關係。模糊模型方法不僅可在定量上對數據點予以精確地擬合配適，亦可由其本身IF-THEN規則的組合型式，對所探討對象提供定性的描述，有助於負載用電行為模式的分析與瞭解。

Load characteristics are most important information of a power system and of which the analysis is a critical task for a utility company. The main purpose of this project is to investigate the application of fuzzy modeling to the analysis of load characteristics. The method of fuzzy modeling is suitable for the analysis of load characteristics due to the inherent nonlinearity of load curves.
A fuzzy model is a set of fuzzy IF-THEN rules for describing system behaviors.This thesis constructs fuzzy load models based on measured load data to set up the basis for load study. , The fuzzy model is employed in the analysis of load charactersitics for depicting the relationship among load demand and time as well as other variables(temperature and humidity), for each customer. The load fuzzy model is capable of providing both quantitative and qualitative descriptions for the customer under study and hence will be helpful to the task of analyzing load characteristics.

第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究動機與目的 1
1.2 研究成果 4
1.3 本文內容 5
第二章 研究方法 7
2.1 模糊理論 7
2.1.1 模糊集合 7
2.1.2 模糊推論 10
2.1.3 模糊模型 12
2.1.4 模型求解 14
第三章 負載特性模型 19
第四章 負載實例分析 23
4.1單輸入單輸出負載模型 23
4.1.1 高壓綜合非營業戶 23
4.1.2 高壓綜合營業戶 31
4.1.3 高壓電力戶 39
4.1.4 特高壓電力戶 47
4.1.5 小結 55
4.2 雙輸入單輸出負載模型 57
4.2.1 高壓綜合非營業戶 57
4.2.2 高壓綜合營業戶 76
4.2.3 高壓電力戶 96
4.2.4 特高壓電力戶 116
4.2.5 小結 135
4.3 三輸入單輸出負載模型 137
4.3.1 高壓綜合非營業戶 137
4.3.2 高壓綜合營業戶 146
4.3.3 高壓電力 156
4.3.4 特高壓電力戶 166
4.3.5 小結 176
第五章 結論 179
5.1 總結 179
5.2 未來研究方向與建議 181
參考文獻 183

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