臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

散裝航運市場具有高度不確定性與週期循環特性，傭船決策是營運管理最困難任務之一。論時傭船期間較長、船東面臨違約風險較大。2009年7月1日起波羅地海乾散貨運價指數(BDI)組成結構亦僅以論時傭船租金計算。於高度風險航運市場中，如何進行最適的論時傭船決策，俾能創造航運公司最大收益是重要課題。本文經文獻回顧與專家訪談，彙整散裝航運論時傭船營運關鍵影響因素，透過問卷調查方式，以專家決策模糊德菲法(Fuzzy Delphi)探求關鍵影響因素之重要性，以決策實驗室法(DEMATEL)釐清各項關鍵影響因素間之因果關係。本文研究結果如下：
1.採用模糊德菲法(Fuzzy Delphi)分析關鍵影響因素之重要性，散裝航運論時傭船營運整體評估準則最重要的影響因素為「當事人信譽名聲」，其次依序為「船速及其耗油量」、「危機處理的能力」、「航行貿易與限制」與「市場運價與預測」。
2.採用決策實驗室法(DEMATEL)分析關鍵影響因素之關聯性，總影響程度最重要的因素為「傭船期間之長短」，其次較為「租金與支付條件」與「當事人信譽名聲」。其中，最主要的影響因素為「當事人營運規模」，其次依序為「航行貿易與限制」、「除外貨載與轉租」；最主要被影響因素為「租金與支付條件」，其次為「交還船相關約定」與「當事人信譽名聲」。
本文研究結果可以作為散裝航運公司制定論時傭船決策之依據。

Due to the bulk shipping market is uncertain and risky, making chartering decision is one of the most difficult challenges of operation management. Generally, the charter period of timecharter is longer than voyagecharter, and the risk of breaching the contract which the shipowners face is higher than voyagecharer. Since 1 July 2009 the Baltic dry index (BDI) components only calculated by trip timecharter hire. The shipping market is under considerable risks, how to make the chartering decisions the most efficiency to make the profit of shipping companies maximum. Therefore, according to the results of literature reviews and in-depth interviews, this research concludes timecharter operations key influencial factors of bulk shipping, to discuss these factors by questionnaire. In order to understand the key influencial factors of timecharter operations, this research applied the method of Fuzzy Delphi Method to analyze the importance of key influencial factors of timecharter operations, and meanwhile, clarify the causal relationship among each influential factor by utilizing the decision making and trial evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL).
1. Using Fuzzy Delphi analysis the importance of key factors, concerning the integral evaluation criteria, “Reputation” is valued the most, followed by “Speed and consumption”, “Crisis handling”, “Trading limits” and “Forecast of market price”.
2. Using DEMATEL analysis the relevance of key factors, concerning the integral criteria, “Chartering period” exerts the greatest effect on the overall influential degree, followed in descending order by “Payment condition” and “Reputation”. More specifically, the main influential factor is “Scale of operation”, and following are “Trading limits” and “Cargo exclusion and sub-let”. Additionally, the most crucial influenced factor is “Payment condition”, and the second and third among those being affected are “Delivery and redelivery” and “Reputation”.
The results of this study can contribute to dry bulk corporations in making timechartering decisions.

謝誌 i
摘 要 ii
Abstract iii
目錄 iv
表目錄 viii
圖目錄 x
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究問題與目的 3
1.3 研究內容與方法 4
1.4 研究架構 5
1.5 研究流程 6
第二章 文獻回顧與評析 8
2.1 散裝航運論時傭船相關研究 8
2.2 傭船營運影響因素相關研究 9
2.3 研究方法相關文獻 15
2.3.1 模糊德菲法 15
2.3.2 決策實驗室法 16
第三章 傭船市場現況分析 18
3.1 船噸供給分析 18
3.2 貨源需求分析 22
3.3 波羅地海指數 18
3.4 綜合討論 20
第四章 研究方法 20
4.1 模糊德菲法 20
4.2 決策實驗室法 22
4.3 分析架構與內涵 23
4.4 問卷調查與統計 28
第五章 關鍵影響因素重要性分析 29
5.1 整體評估 29
5.2 分群評估 30
5.2.1依船噸規模大小區分 30
5.2.2依營運型態區分 32
5.2.3依船東/傭船人或經紀人身分區分 33
5.3 綜合評析 35
第六章 關鍵影響因素關聯性分析 38
6.1 整體評估 38
6.2 分群評估 42
6.2.1依船噸規模大小區分 42
6.2.2依營運型態區分 49
6.2.3依船東/傭船人或經紀人身分區分 56
6.3 綜合評析 63
6.4 重要性與關聯性之討論 64
七、結論與建議 67
7.1 結論 67
7.2 建議 68
參考文獻 68

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