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研究生:張志涵
研究生(外文):Chih-Han Chang
論文名稱:後冷戰時期族群衝突與血緣國干涉
論文名稱(外文):Ethnic Conflicts and Kin State Intervention in Post Cold War Era
指導教授:吳玉山吳玉山引用關係
指導教授(外文):Yu-Shan Wu
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:政治學研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:政治學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2005
畢業學年度:93
語文別:中文
論文頁數:183
中文關鍵詞:血緣國干涉後冷戰族群巴爾幹南斯拉夫族群衝突
外文關鍵詞:ethnic conflictkin stateinterventionethnic groupsBalkanYugoslaviapost cold war
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:7
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  • 下載下載:0
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:2
後冷戰時期,族群衝突國際化的現象特別顯著。族群衝突的國際化有擴散與升高兩種方式,血緣國干涉便屬於族群衝突的升高。血緣國干涉的動機則決定其干涉方式與結果。本文從國內層次與國際層次探討血緣國進行干涉的可能性,干涉的動機包括國內層次的族群政治傾向,以及國際層次的族群連帶;干涉的限制包括國內層次的制度限制,以及國際層次的相對國力大小。
國內族群政治傾向高的國家,容易以族群因素作為對外政策的基準。族群連帶則提供其實踐干涉的理由,尤其當某族群在某國作為具有政治影響力之族群,但在另一國受到歧視待遇時,前者干涉後者的動機更高。但在行使干涉行為之前,國家必須考量國內制度限制與國家相對國力大小。在制度限制高的政體中,政治領導者的權力受到限縮,反之,在制度限制低的政體之中,政治領導者很有可能利用干涉作為提升支持率的手段,也更有可能為所欲為遂行己志。另外,國家作為理性的行為者,也需評估相對國力是否足以保證干涉的成功,因此制度限制與相對國力兩者侷限了干涉的可能性。
綜上所述,在存在族群連帶的狀況下,可以推導出血緣國干涉可能性最高的是「有族群連帶+相對國力優勢+族群政治傾向高+制度限制低」,血緣國干涉可能性最低的是「有族群連帶+相對國力非優勢+族群政治傾向低+制度限制高」。本文並選擇巴爾幹半島國家進行案例探討,以檢測這四個變項的有效性。
Internationalization of ethnic conflicts is quite noticeable in post-cold war era. Ways of internationalizing ethnic conflicts include diffusion and escalation. Kin state intervention is one form of escalation. The means and outcomes of intervening are decided by motives of kin states. This research is to assess the possibility of kin state to carry out intervening from international and domestic aspects. The motives of intervention include ethnic political inclination in domestic level, and ethnic ties in international level; the limitations of intervention include institutional restrictions in domestic level and comparative state power in international level.
Countries with high inclination of ethnic politics are more possible to make foreign policies in accordance with ethnical factors. Ethnic ties may become the reason to intervene. The possibility of intervention is especially high when one certain ethnic group is dominating in one country, and its co-national is discriminated in another country. The former has a very high level of motivation to intervene the latter. However, domestic institutional restrictions and comparative state power must be considered before intervening. Political leaders are restricted in countries with high institutional restriction. In stead, political leaders may use intervention as means of enhancing public supporting, and it''s more possible for them to do whatever they like to achieve their won purposes. As a rational actor, a state must estimate if its comparative power is strong enough to guarantee success before intervening. Therefore, institutional restrictions and comparative state power are two limitations of kin state intervention.
To sum up, it may be deduced that kin state intervention is most possible for countries with “existing ethnic tie + advantageous comparative state power + high ethnic political inclination + low institutional restrictions.” On the contrary, kin state intervention is least possible for countries with "existing ethnic tie + disadvantageous comparative state power + low ethnic political inclination + high institutional restrictions.” This research chooses the Balkan states as cases to examine validity and effectiveness of these four variables.
目次
第一章 緒論 / 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 / 1
第二節 文獻回顧 / 2
一、 族群認同 / 3
二、 族群動員 / 7
三、 族群衝突在國際關係理論中的發展 / 10
四、 後冷戰時期族群衝突增加現象的解釋 / 15
第三節 研究途徑 / 16
一、 相關研究途徑 / 16
二、 本研究所採取之研究方法 / 20
第四節 研究範圍與研究限制 / 21
一、 研究範圍 / 21
二、 研究限制 / 21
第五節 章節安排 / 22
第二章 後冷戰時期的族群衝突 / 24
第一節 後冷戰時期族群衝突的特點 / 24
第二節 族群衝突的國際化:擴散與升高 / 25
一、 族群衝突擴散與升高的結構性因素 / 26
二、 族群衝突擴散與升高的途徑 / 27
第三節 偏袒性干涉的情感性動機與工具性動機 / 30
第四節 血緣國干涉的方式與結果 / 32
一、 血緣國的定義與重要性 / 32
二、 血緣國的干涉方式 / 33
第五節 巴爾幹地區族群衝突概況 / 38
第三章 血緣國干涉的研究變項 / 45
第一節 血緣國干涉的國內環境因素 / 45
一、 族群政治傾向 / 45
二、 制度限制 / 50
三、 血緣國國內環境限制因素的綜合評估 / 53
第二節 血緣國干涉的國際環境因素 / 57
一、 族群連帶 / 57
二、 相對國力 / 61
三、 血緣國國際環境限制因素的綜合評估 / 63
第三節 小結 / 65
第四章 典型的血緣國干涉: 塞爾維亞與克羅埃西亞對波士尼亞內戰的干涉 / 67
第一節 狄托時代的政治遺緒 / 69
第二節 塞爾維亞的干涉動機與限制 / 70
一、 族群政治傾向 / 70
二、 制度限制 / 74
三、 族群連帶 / 78
四、 相對國力 / 80
第三節 塞爾維亞對波士尼亞內戰的干涉 / 82
第四節 克羅埃西亞的干涉動機與限制 / 84
一、 族群政治傾向 / 84
二、 制度限制 / 87
三、 族群連帶 / 90
四、 相對國力 / 91
第五節 克羅埃西亞對波士尼亞內戰的干涉 / 91
第五章 受到國際層次限制的血緣國—阿爾巴尼亞 / 94
第一節 阿爾巴尼亞的干涉動機與限制 / 94
一、 族群政治傾向 /94
二、 制度限制 / 98
三、 族群連帶 / 100
四、 相對國力 / 105
第二節 阿爾巴尼亞對科索沃戰爭的干涉 / 106
第六章 受到雙重限制的血緣國—匈牙利 / 111
第一節 匈牙利的干涉動機與限制 / 111
一、 族群政治傾向 / 111
二、 制度限制 / 115
三、 族群連帶 / 117
四、 相對國力 / 119
第二節 匈牙利干涉伏依伏丁那的可能性 /120
一、 伏依伏丁那地區匈牙利族群的地位 / 120
二、 匈牙利對伏依伏丁那的干涉可能性分析 / 121
第三節 匈牙利干涉外西凡尼亞的可能性 / 123
一、 外西凡尼亞地區匈牙利族群的地位 /123
二、 匈牙利對外西凡尼亞的干涉可能性分析 /127
第七章 免於血緣國干涉的馬其頓 / 129
第一節 馬其頓的族群政治 / 130
一、 馬其頓的族群組成 /130
二、 馬其頓共和國獨立前的族群政治 / 132
三、 馬其頓共和國獨立後的少數族群地位 /134
第二節 馬其頓的塞爾維亞族群 / 135
一、 馬其頓塞裔的族群地位 / 135
二、 血緣國塞爾維亞的干涉狀況 / 136
第三節 馬其頓的阿爾巴尼亞族群 / 139
一、 馬其頓共和國獨立前的阿裔地位 / 139
二、 馬其頓獨立後的阿裔地位 / 140
三、 科索沃戰爭之後的族群關係 / 143
四、 血緣國阿爾巴尼亞的干涉狀況 / 144
第四節 馬其頓免於血緣國干涉的綜合分析 / 146
第八章 結論 / 149
附錄 / 159
參考書目 / 168
表目次
表 2-1 干涉的程度排列 / 25
表 2-2 族群衝突干涉的類型 / 32
表 2-3 巴爾幹地區國家族群結構表 / 42
表 2-4 巴爾幹半島主要族群在本國之外的主要散佈區 / 43
表 3-1 族群政治傾向的決定因素 / 50
表 3-2 血緣國的國內環境限制因素 / 53
表 3-3 國際環境限制因素 / 63
表 4-1 前南斯拉夫共和國概況表 / 68
表 4-2 塞爾維亞與波士尼亞的國力比較百分比 / 81
表 4-3 克羅埃西亞與波士尼亞的國力比較百分比 / 91
表 5-1 阿爾巴尼亞與塞爾維亞的國力比較百分比 / 106
表 6-1 匈牙利與塞爾維亞、羅馬尼亞的相對國力百分比 / 119
表 6-2 匈牙利與塞爾維亞、羅馬尼亞的國力對比 / 119
表 7-1 塞爾維亞與馬其頓的國力比較百分比 / 138
表 7-2 馬其頓主要政黨國會選舉得票率與席次 / 143
表 7-3 阿爾巴尼亞與馬其頓的國力比較百分比 / 146
表 8-1 血緣國干涉變項綜合比較表 / 155
圖目次
圖 1-1 族群動員理論枝狀圖 / 10
圖 2-1 巴爾幹族群分歧程度圖 / 41
圖 3-1 血緣國干涉分析架構圖 / 66
圖 4-1 前南斯拉夫族群分佈圖 / 69
圖 4-2 塞爾維亞的族群百分比圓餅圖 / 71
圖 4-3 塞爾維亞歷年民主評比曲線圖 / 77
圖 4-4 波士尼亞-赫塞哥維納族群百分比圓餅圖 / 79
圖 4-5 塞爾維亞、克羅埃西亞、波士尼亞相對國力變化直方圖 / 81
圖 4-6 波士尼亞-赫塞哥維納族群分佈圖 / 82
圖 4-7 克羅埃西亞內的塞裔分佈與比例圖 / 86
圖 4-8 克羅埃西亞歷年民主評比曲線圖 / 90
圖 5-1 阿爾巴尼亞族群人口百分比圓餅圖 / 95
圖 5-2 巴爾幹南部阿爾巴尼亞族群分佈圖 / 96
圖 5-3 阿爾巴尼亞歷年民主評比折線圖 / 100
圖 5-4 阿爾巴尼亞與塞爾維亞相對力量比較圖 / 106
圖 6-1 匈牙利族群分佈百分比圓餅圖 / 111
圖 6-2 匈牙利歷年民主評比折線圖 / 116
圖 6-3 匈牙利族群在中東歐的分佈圖 / 117
圖 6-4 匈牙利、塞爾維亞與羅馬尼亞相對力量變化直方圖 / 120
圖 6-5 匈牙利族群在伏依伏丁那地區的分佈圖 / 122
圖 6-6 匈牙利族群在羅馬尼亞的分佈圖 / 125
圖 7-1 馬其頓族群人口百分比圓餅圖 / 131
圖 7-2 馬其頓共和國族群分佈圖 / 132
圖 7-3 馬其頓主權遞移圖 / 133
圖 7-4 塞爾維亞、阿爾巴尼亞與馬其頓相對力量比較圖 / 139
圖 8-1 血緣國族群性政黨歷年得票比率與干涉政策圖 / 151
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網路資源
The Minorities at Risk (MAR) Project:〈http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/inscr/mar/〉
CIA—The World Factbook:〈http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html〉
Correlates of War Project Database (COW):〈Archiveshttp://www.umich.edu/~cowproj/dataset.html#Capabilities〉
Ethnopolitical Map of Europe:〈http://www.ecmi.de/emap/index.html〉
Parties and Elections in Europe:〈http://www.parties-and-elections.de/〉
Polity IV Project:〈http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/inscr/polity/index.htm〉
中東歐問題研究: 〈http://www.cass.net.cn/chinese/s24_oys/chinese/East-European/EastEuropean.html〉
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