臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

印度尼西亞農業部自2014年以來設計了UPSUS PAJALE計劃，以改善印度尼西亞的一些主食，包括玉米的表現。但經過兩年的計劃實施，當地玉米仍未顯現出顯著的業績變化。印度尼西亞的政治和貿易條件要求接受進口玉米。這種情況對當地玉米構成威脅，因為當地玉米在國內玉米市場表現不佳，現在必須與進口玉米進行競爭。本研究目的是：1）了解印度尼西亞玉米的一般狀況; 2）分析印尼當地和進口玉米的競爭力; 3）確定影響印度尼西亞進口玉米依賴的因素。
本研究使用了1996 - 2015年的次級資料，其中包括土地面積數據，生產數據，進口數據和玉米價格數據。此外，本研究還使用了印度尼西亞最大的進口玉米國家的數據。本研究使用的方法有3種：1）貿易專業化指數，以了解印度尼西亞玉米與進口國的競爭優勢; 2）進口依
賴比率，以了解印度尼西亞玉米的比較優勢; 3）VECM定義影響進口玉米依賴性的因素。印度尼西亞玉米競爭力分析以競爭優勢和比較優勢為主。基於競爭優勢結果，印度尼西亞玉米的競爭力比巴西，印度，阿根廷和美國的進口玉米低。但印度尼西亞玉米的狀況與中國進口玉米沒有太大的差異。基於比較優勢結果，顯示印度尼西亞的玉米IDR偏低，因為在100％左右，約為6％ - 11％。
短期來看，影響印度尼西亞玉米進口依賴的因素有：作物面積（t-2），實際匯率（t-2）和世界價格（t-2）。長期來看，影響印度尼西亞玉米進口依賴的因素有：作物面積（t-1），實際匯率（t-1）和世界價格（t-1）。基於IRF結果，IDR對作物面積的反應和實際匯率的衝擊呈負相關，但對於世界價格衝擊，IDR給予了積極響應。總體內生變量如作物面積，實際匯率和世界價格預測會影響IDR下降4％和1％，其餘則受變量本身的影響。

Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture design UPSUS PAJALE programs since 2014 to improve the performance of some staple food in Indonesia, including maize. But after two years program have implemented, local maize still not shows significant performance changes. Indonesia's political and trade conditions require receiving imported maize. This condition poses a threat to local maize because local maize has not had a good performance in the domestic maize market and late these day local maize has to compete with imported maize. These research purposes are: 1) to know maize production, consumption, and price in Indonesia; 2) to analyze the competitiveness of local and import maize in Indonesia; and 3) to define the factors that affect import maize dependency in Indonesia. This research used secondary data from the years of 1996 - 2015, which includes land area data, production data, import data, and maize price data. In addition, this study also used data from the largest importer country of maize in Indonesia. There are three methods used in this research, they are: 1) Trade Specialization Index to know competitive advantages of Indonesian maize compare with importer country; 2) Import Dependency Ratio to know comparative advantages of maize in Indonesia; 3) VECM to define the factors that affect import maize dependency.
The competitiveness analysis of maize in Indonesia was done with competitive advantage and comparative advantage. Based on competitive advantage result, show that Indonesian maize has lower competitiveness than imported maize from Brazil, India, Argentina, and America. Late this year, there is no difference between Indonesia and China TSI for maize. Based on comparative advantage result, show that IDR of maize in Indonesia quite low because it’s about 6% - 11% out of 100%.
In short term there are some variables affect maize import dependency in Indonesia, they are Cropping area (t-2), Real exchange rate (t-2), and World price (t-2). In long term there are some variables affect maize import dependency in Indonesia, they are Cropping area (t-1), Real exchange rate (t-1), and World price (t-1). Based on IRF result, IDR response to cropping area and real exchange rate shocks negatively but for world price shocks, IDR gives a positive response. Overall endogenous variables such as cropping area, real exchange rate, and world price are predicted to affect IDR by 4% and 1%, while the rest is influenced by the variable itself.

摘要..........................................................I
Abstract....................................................III
Abstrak.......................................................V
Acknowledgement.............................................VII
Table of Contents..........................................VIII
List of Tables...............................................XI
List of Appendix...........................................XIII
Chapter 1. Introduction.......................................1
1.1 Research Background...................................1
1.2 Research Question.....................................3
1.3 Research Purpose......................................4
1.4 Research Benefit......................................4
Chapter 2. Literature Review..................................5
2.1 Literature Review.....................................5
2.2 Theory of International Trade........................12
2.3 Positive and Negative Effect for Importer Country....13
2.4 The Competitiveness..................................15
Chapter 3. Methodology.......................................18
3.1 Research Framework...................................18
3.2 Problem Restriction..................................22
3.3 Research Variable Definition.........................22
3.4 Data Collection Method...............................23
3.5 Data Analyze Method..................................24
3.5.1 Analysis of Import Dependency Ratio..................24
3.5.2 Analysis Trade Specialization Index..................25
3.5.3 Vector Autoregressive / Vector Error Correction Model26
Chapter 4. Result and Discussion.............................30
4.1 The Condition of Maize in Indonesia..................30
4.1.1 Domestic Maize Production and Cropping Area..........30
4.1.2 Domestic Maize Consumption...........................32
4.1.3 Domestic Maize Price.................................33
4.2 The Competitiveness of Maize in Indonesia............35
4.2.1 Competitive Advantage................................35
4.2.2 Comparative Advantage................................41
4.3 The Factors that Affect Import Dependency............43
4.3.1 Stationary Test......................................43
4.3.2 Co-Integration Test..................................45
4.3.3 Estimation Result of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM).......................................................45
4.3.4 Impulse Response Function (IRF)......................48
4.3.5 Forecasting Error of Variance Decomposition (FEVD)...49
Chapter 5. Conclusions and Suggestions.......................52
5.1 Conclusions..............................................52
5.2 Suggestions..............................................53
Reference....................................................54
Appendix.....................................................59

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