臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

水平模式解析度可能是影響模式模擬熱帶風暴(Tropical Storm, TS)活動之重要因素之一。本研究採用Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)區域氣候模式，研究範圍包含西北太平洋、印度洋及青藏高原(45°E-180°E，20°S-40°E)。研究解析度對此WRF-RCM模擬TS氣候活動之影響，設計兩部分的實驗。實驗一：選定30km、50km及100km三組水平解析度，進行2000-2010年6-11月TS氣候活動模擬。實驗二：增加2002年及2005年7-9月10km解析度之模擬，進行TS強度模擬。探討模式解析度對WRF-RCM模式中TS活動的影響。
結果顯示，100km解析度，能掌握TS之軌跡通過頻率，卻嚴重低估TS的生成頻率，此結果類似大多數的GCM模式。當解析度提升至50km時，TS的生成頻率模擬能力能有所提升，但仍然無法掌握TS生成頻率之年際變化。而當解析度提升至30km時，TS的通過頻率、生成頻率與生成頻率之年際變化，皆能有不錯的表現。但30km模擬嚴重低估TY4-TY5生成頻率，當解析度提升至10km時可以明顯改善TY4生成頻率，但TY4生成頻率仍低於觀測。
TS主要生成在海溫高、低層正渦度大、中層相對濕度高與垂直風切小的季風槽與輻合區。四組水平解析度模擬均可掌握此TS生成位置與大尺度環境條件場之關係。100km模擬中，地形阻擋效應差，在東南亞島嶼一代明顯高估高低層穿越赤道流風速，造成西北太平洋高低層垂直風切變大，且渦度中心、強降水區及季風合流區偏北偏東，有利TS生成區域變小。隨解析度增加至50km及30km，地形阻擋效應及降水分怖逐漸改善，環境場、TS生成位置及生成頻率模擬接近觀測。
強的TS生成位置偏東南、生命史較長、生成後多數向西北移動與風速改變率較大。四組水平解析度模擬均可掌握強的TS生成位置偏東及生命史較長之特徵。100km模擬中，強的TS生成位置偏北，路徑以向西移動為主。隨解析度增加至50km、30km及10km，強的TS生成位置與路徑模擬與觀測相似。100km、50km及30km模擬，嚴重低估強的TS風速改變率，造成TY4-TY5生成頻率嚴重低估。隨解析度增加至10km，強的TS移動路徑環境條件場較30km模擬有利TS發展，強的TS風速改變率及TY4生成頻率明顯改善，但仍低於觀測。

摘要 I
致謝 II
目錄 III
圖表目錄 V
第一章 前言 1
第二章 資料 6
2.1 環境場觀測資料 6
2.2 熱帶風暴觀測資料 7
第三章 WRF氣候模式與實驗設計 9
3.1 模式介紹 9
3.2 模式初始場及邊界資料 10
3.3 模式參數設定 11
3.4 實驗設計 12
3.4.1 區域氣候模式所模擬之範圍 13
3.4.2 實驗一：基本的熱帶風暴氣候特性模擬 14
3.4.3 實驗二：強度模擬 15
3.5 各解析度模擬中的地形 15
3.6 模式中熱帶風暴之篩選方法 16
第四章 熱帶風暴於不同解析度WRF區域氣候模式的活動 20
4.1 熱帶風暴生成位置模擬 20
4.2 熱帶風暴頻率模擬 21
4.3 熱帶風暴強度模擬 22
4.4 模式中熱帶風暴氣候活動小結 24
第五章 解析度對熱帶風暴活動模擬之影響 26
5.1 西北太平洋地區熱帶風暴生成與氣候環境條件 26
5.2 西北太平洋地區環境條件分佈之原因 32
第六章 熱帶風暴強度實驗 37
6.1 強弱熱帶風暴之間差異分析 37
6.2 影響模式中熱帶風暴發展原因 44
第七章 結論 47
參考文獻 54
附圖表 61
附錄 一 83
附錄 二 84
附錄 三 85

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