臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究分為三章，以東亞經濟主要的6個經濟體日本、亞洲四小龍、中國為分析對象，探討跨國每人平均國民所得差距的相關問題。第1章根據不同經濟發展階段可將她們區分為先進（日本）、中進（四小龍）、後進（中國）三個類型，比較她們彼此之間的經濟發展差異，再分別利用ADF單根檢定、KPSS(1992)單根檢定、Im, Pesaran, and Shin(1997)、Levin, Lin, and Chu(2002)、Hadri(2000)三種追蹤資料單根檢定和Lo and MacKinlay(1988)的變異數比率檢定來針對三組經濟群體的每人平均國民所得長期收斂與否檢定。以全樣本期間來看(1960-2004)，香港與新加坡之間的每人平均國民所得長期收斂，韓國與台灣之間每人平均國民所得沒有長期收斂，但亞洲四小龍、中國分別與日本之間的所得差距均未長期收斂，而亞洲四小龍、日本分別與中國之間的所得差距也均未長期收斂。若進一步以1990年做為經濟結構改變的時點，比較1960-2004年、1960-1990年以及1990-2004年三段不同期間的實證結果，我們發現實證結果相當不一致，顯示經濟結構改變因素確實會使統計檢定的結果變得不穩定。我們也以例子說明Park(2000,2003) 利用Theil entropy index來衡量東亞經濟的每人平均國民所得差距收斂的指標會有問題。
第2章我們以一個涵蓋新古典成長模型與AK成長模型的隨機動態模型釐清了影響跨國每人平均國民所得是否長期收斂的因素，結果發現跨國生產技術的差異、跨國有效利用技術的能力差異均會導致每人平均國民所得不會長期收斂。從另一個角度來看，單就實證結果收斂與否並無法提供後續研究進一步有用的訊息；我們無從得知導致每人平均國民所得收斂或不收斂的原因為何。此外，我們亦以一個簡單的例子說明當有經濟結構變動因素存在時，根據Bernard and Durlauf的長期收斂定義，每人平均國民所得就「定義上」而言便不會長期收斂，但是利用考慮結構改變因素的單根檢定卻可以得到「統計上」而言有長期收斂的實證結果。因此，為了得到統計上有每人平均國民所得收斂而不斷修正統計方法的努力，不僅犯了邏輯上的謬誤，也無益於我們去瞭解經濟現象。
第3章設定一個包含以生產技術做為經濟發展助力以及以制度面因素做為經濟發展阻力的經濟成長模型，由理論模型得到生產技術的趨同可以縮小跨國每人平均國民所得的差距，同時，制度面經濟發展障礙的提升將導致跨國每人平均國民所得的差距持續存在。我們藉由中國1990-2006年的實證資料，並以民主化指標做為解釋中國經濟發展制度面障礙的主要變數，證實我們所提出的理論不僅存在，而且實證結果顯著；中國雖可以藉由向外國進口機器設備以提高自身的生產技術，進而拉進與他國的經濟發展差距，但是中國的反民主化將顯著不利於中國與他國經濟發展差距的縮小。

口試委員會審定書
謝辭…………………………………………………………i
中文摘要……………………………………………………ii
第1章 東亞經濟每人平均國民所得差距的實證分析…………1
第1節 前言……………………………………………1
第2節 資料及實證現象……………………3
第3節 東亞經濟每人平均國民所得長期收斂的實證分析…9
第4節 與既有文獻比較…………………………………20
第5節 結語………………………………………………22
參考文獻…………………………………………………39
第2章 以新古典成長模型與AK成長模型探討Bernard and Durlauf(1996)所定義跨國每人平均國民所得長期收斂性的缺失………………………43
第1節 前言………………………………………43
第2節 理論模型…………………………………………44
第3節 每人平均國民所得長期收斂的意義………48
第4節 每人平均國民所得長期收斂定義的缺失…51
第5節 結語…………………………………………53
參考文獻…………………………………………………54
第3章 制度面因素、生產技術對每人平均國民所得差距影響的理論與實證分析……………………55
第1節 前言…………………………………………………55
第2節 理論模型……………………………………………56
第3節 實證分析……………………………………………61
第4節 結語…………………………………………………70
參考文獻……………………………………………77

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