臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

近年來，台灣烘焙業市場產值呈現成長趨勢，歷經食安風暴，國人越來越重視飲食與健康之間的關係。因此本研究的個案對象是以健康為主要經營理念的複數店烘焙業者的銷售資料，用以建立烘焙業銷售預測模型。將視覺化應用於商業分析，透過資料分析找出影響各分店的重要變數，進而以整體學習方法發展出最佳的烘焙業銷售預測模式。
研究顯示所採用的機器學習中的整體學習演算法XGBoost於所建立的銷售預測模型中具有較低的誤差。此外，模型所預測結果可協助業者根據數據進行商品控管及人力資源分配，透過銷售預測便於公司訂定目標與管理營運方針。

Recently, the value of bakery industry output is being on the rise in Taiwan.
Nowadays, there is a growing focus on healthy diet. Given this, the research use sales data which is from healthy bakeries to build the sales forecast model of baking industry. Besides, the research tries to use data visualization and feature selection to examine each bakery. Eventually, through Ensemble Learning to build the better forecast model of baking industry.
The result demonstrate that technique XGBoost is better than other model. In addition, the result would like to help manager to control product and allocate human resources. Eventually, the sales forecast can assist company to set short-term or long-term objectives to make operating plan.

中文摘要 i
ABSTRACT ii
誌謝 iii
目錄 iv
表目錄 vi
圖目錄 vii
第一章　緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 2
第三節 研究流程 4
第二章 文獻探討 5
第一節 烘焙產業相關文獻 5
第二節 變數篩選及資料前處理相關文獻 7
第三節 整體學習(Ensemble Learning)預測相關文獻 8
第三章 研究方法 20
第一節 研究架構 20
第四章 實證結果與分析 27
第一節 商業分析 27
第二節 變數篩選 32
第三節 現有各分店營業額預測 37
第四節 結果分析 51
第五章 結論與建議 53
第一節 研究結論 53
第二節 研究貢獻 54
第三節 研究限制 55
第四節 研究建議 55
參考文獻 56

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