臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

分析師的盈餘預測是投資人所關注的投資參考因素之一，本文以台灣國內分析師對台灣上市(櫃)公司做盈餘預測修正，探討分析師盈餘預測修正是否對股價造成影響，本文支持分析師盈餘預測修正對股價是有影響的；當將分析師的來源區分為外資、投顧和證券公司時，投顧和證券公司分析師所製作的盈餘預測修正對股價會產生正向的影響，而外資則呈現反向影響，而本研究也加入其他變數探討及控制分析師盈餘預測是否對股價造成影響。

Analysts'' earnings forecast is one of the factors investors collect to make decision for buying or selling stocks. This paper explores whether the revisions of the earnings forecast from the Taiwan analysts affect stock prices. The paper finds share prices are affected by that analyst’s earnings forecast revisions. Furtherly, while the analysts divided into three groups, foreign brokerage, investment adviser and securities, the relation between of the returns and the revision of earnings forecasts of analysts from investment adviser or dealers is positive. However, there is the negative relation between the returns and the earnings forecast revisions of analysts from foreign brokerages.

中文摘要 Ⅰ
英文摘要 Ⅱ
誌謝 Ⅲ
目錄 IV
表目錄 V
圖目錄 VI
第壹章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 2
第三節 研究架構 2
第貳章 文獻回顧 4
第一節 盈餘預測相關文獻 4
第二節 分析師的角色相關文獻 9
第三節 公司管理階層調整盈餘達到分析師預測之相關文獻 12
第四節 資訊透明度影響分析師盈餘預測之相關文獻 14
第參章 研究方法 17
第一節 研究對象與資料收集 17
第二節 變數定義 17
(一) 被解釋變數 17
(二) 解釋變數 18
第三節 模型設定 19
第肆章 實證結果 21
第一節 敘述性統計 21
第二節 預測修正和公司規模對股價異常報酬之迴歸分析 21
第三節 不同來源分析師預測修正迴歸分析 23
第四節 穩定性測試 32
(一) 排除上市(櫃)公司公告財報的影響 32
(二) 大盤多空頭時期對分析師盈餘預測之影響 35
(三) 預測修正方向 37
第伍章 結論 38
參考文獻 40

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