臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

This study has employed error-correction model (ECM) and standard Granger-causality test to examine the dynamic relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Myanmar using annual time series data over the period 1971-2014.
The empirical results show that time series of FDI and GDP are non-stationary at level but they become stationary at first difference. The Co-integration results establish the existence of a long-run relationship between the two variables.
From the results of ECM, there exists a uni-directional long-run causality running from GDP to FDI and the coefficient of error correction term is negative and highly significant at 1% level, confirming the long run equilibrium relationship between the two variables. In the short run, the associated coefficient of lagged FDI and lagged GDP are all statistically significant, implying a bi-directional causality between FDI and GDP. The Standard Granger-causality results reveal that FDI has a significant positive impact on GDP in the short run but not vice versa. In general, the results can be interpreted as although FDI has a direct effect on economic growth in the short run but economic growth performance is an important driving force of FDI inflows into Myanmar in the long run.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ii
ABSTRACT iii
LIST OF TABLES v
LIST OF FIGURES vi
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1
1.1. Background and Motivation 1
1.2. Problem Statement and Research Objectives 4
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 7
2.1. Theoretical Reviews 7
2.2. Empirical Reviews 9
CHAPTER 3: OVERVIEW OF ECONOMIC AND FDI PERFORMANCE IN MYANMAR 20
3.1. Background of Myanmar 20
3.2. Major reforms in Myanmar (1988-2015) 25
3.3. Analysis of FDI Inflows into Myanmar 29
CHAPTER 4: METHODOLOGY 41
4.1. Pre-Estimation Tests 41
4.2. Test of Causality 47
CHAPTER 5: DATA AND EMPIRICAL RESULTS 51
5.1. Data 51
5.2. Results of Pre-Estimation tests 53
5.3. Results of Granger-Causality 56
CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSIONS 60
REFERENCES 65
APPENDIX 68

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