臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

Taiwan’s government is facing new pressures for public healthcare as result of a rapidly increasing healthcare costs and financial imbalances in its National Health Insurance program. Accordingly, analyzing the factors properly is a significant first step in addressing this problem. Graying population in Taiwan is hypothesized as the main reason that accounts for a huge health care expenditure. The sample of population in Taiwan’s National Health Insurance databases together with statistic methods is used to analyze the impact of population aging and to estimate the contributions of population aging shifting to NHI expenditure in Taiwan.

Taiwan’s government is facing new pressures for public healthcare as result of a rapidly increasing healthcare costs and financial imbalances in its National Health Insurance program. Accordingly, analyzing the factors properly is a significant first step in addressing this problem. Graying population in Taiwan is hypothesized as the main reason that accounts for a huge health care expenditure. The sample of population in Taiwan’s National Health Insurance databases together with statistic methods is used to analyze the impact of population aging and to estimate the contributions of population aging shifting to NHI expenditure in Taiwan.

ABSTRACT i
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ii
TABLE OF CONTENTS iii
LIST OF TABLES v
LIST OF FIGURES vi
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Objectives 2
1.3 Organization of Thesis 3
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 4
2.1 Forecasting 4
2.2 Age-Expenditure Projecting Approach 5
2.3 The fluctuation of the Money Value 6
2.4 Data Mining 6
2.4.1 Linear Regression 6
2.4.2 Regression Validation 7
2.5 The Decomposing of Health Care Expenditure Components Approach 8
CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY RESEARCH 12
3.1 Data Sources 12
3.2 Study Cohort 12
3.3 Research Methodology 13
3.4 Age-Expenditure Projecting Approach 15
3.5 Identifying and Decomposing the Components of Health Care Expenditure 15
3.6 Analysis using Data Mining 17
3.6.1 Building Linear Regression Model for Cost Prediction 17
3.6.2 Forecasting the Independent Variable 18
3.6.3 Predicting NHI’s Expenditure 18
3.6.4 Validating the Model 18
CHAPTER 4: ANALYSIS AND RESULTS 19
4.1 Age Distribution of the Patient Cohort 19
4.2 Graph Result Analysis to Provide Hypothesis 20
4.3 Result of Age-Expenditure Profile Analysis 23
4.4 Result of Components Decomposition Method in NHI’s Expenditure 24
4.5 Result of Cost Prediction Model with Linier Regression 25
CHAPTER 5: DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION 29
5.1 Discussion and Conclusion 29
5.2 Limitation and Future Research 30
REFERENCES 31
APPENDIX 36

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