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In recent years, the typhoons and extreme rainfall days increases, the precipitation is unsteady in different places and during different seasons, and it usually concentrates in moist season. The typhoon causes results in severe flood inundation. During the typhoon hit, using the rainfall intensity data of typhoon flood events, to quickly grasp the reservoir inflow, it is expected that results of this study could be used for online reservoir operation in the future.
In this study, we focus on the Shihmen reservoir upstream catchment area, using the relationship of rainfall factor and reservoir inflow to separately establish of cumulative inflow before peak flow, cumulative inflow after peak flow, total cumulative inflow and peak inflow estimating models. The study use the stepwise regression analysis to built model, with 95% confidence interval and cross-validation test the model, and finally using the radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation data verify the model.
The results shows that using the stepwise regression analysis to establish reservoir inflow estimating model, the t-test are less than 0.05. The study found that four kinds of inflow are related to the total cumulative rainfall factor, and adding the average rainfall intensity factor, its coefficient of determination R2 value of 0.85 or more are up to. In this study, the cross-validation results showed that only three events are extreme value, the other 30 events of results are satisfactory.
In this study, we use the radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation data in 4 reservoir inflow estimating models, the results shows that the peak inflow validation results is the four kinds of best estimate type.
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