臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究主要探討公司是否會參考中國農民曆，選擇好日子上市。我們以台灣上市櫃與興櫃公司為例，研究上市日是好日子或壞日子或一般日，並且計算上市後短天期與長天期的股價報酬。此外我們亦分析公司的資產規模、家族企業與否、產業、外資持股比率、上市時的總體經濟情況，是否會影響公司，選擇在好日子或壞日子上市。本研究的結果顯示，根據農民曆指出，大多數的日子為壞日子，然而在好日子上市的公司，卻比在壞日子上市的公司還多，顯然公司會選擇好日子上市。在短天期股價報酬方面，五日的股價報酬符合我們的預期，好日子上市之股價報酬比壞日子上市的還高。最後，當外資持股越高時，在壞日子公司上市的公司數越多，顯然在非本國人持股越高的公司，公司較不會參考農民曆，選擇好日子上市。

This study mainly focuses whether firms would IPO on lucky days which is according to Chinese Lunar Calendar. The IPO data includes emerging markets, OTC and TSE stocks. We investigate the date of IPO is lucky, unlucky, or fair days and calculate the short and long term stock returns after IPO. We also analyze: industry, foreign ownership ratio, size, family business group, and Taiwan economy status, whether these five factors have the influence of IPO on lucky day or unlucky day. Our study shows most of time is unlucky days. Nevertheless, the number of firms IPO on lucky days are greater than IPO on unlucky days. That is to say, firms choose IPO on lucky days on purpose. In 5 days period, the stock returns about IPO on lucky days are higher than IPO on unlucky days, which is meet our expectations. Furthermore, the more foreign ownership ratios, the more firms IPO on unlucky days. Obviously, if there are more foreign stockholders in firms, firms would not choose IPO on lucky days and believe Chinese Lunar Calendar.

1. Introduction 1
2. Literature review and hypotheses 3
2.1 Literature 3
2.2 Hypotheses 4
3. Data and variables definitions 5
3.1 Data 5
3.2 Variables definitions 7
3.3 Regression 9
4. Empirical results 10
4.1 Summary Statistics 10
4.2 Buy and hold returns (BHRs) of IPO firms 11
4.3 Possible factors for the IPO decision 12
4.4 Logit Regression and Multinomial Logit Regression 14
5 Conclusion 16
References 18

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