臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

在2001 年美國911 恐怖攻擊之後，全球供應鏈隨即陷入恐怖攻擊的威脅當中，國際貿易也遭受到相當大的損失，世界各貿易國家都必須面對未來恐怖攻擊的挑戰，也因此國際上因應發展出如海關貿易反恐計畫（Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism, C-TPAT）等國際供應鏈安全機制與措施。而我國在世界經貿中佔據相當重要的一角，如此之國際趨勢當中，當然不能置身事外。
而在供應鏈當中，面對這樣的安全趨勢，成本與效率之間的權衡如何拿捏，便是相當重要的議題，並且管理主要物流作業的物流中心也直接面臨了威脅。
因此本研究藉由文獻整理與羅吉特分析，首先發現降低貨物檢查比率與成本等兩大關鍵因素是最能影響業者加入安全供應鏈政策的意願。
其次，進行敏感度分析與政策模擬，發現加入規範所增加的潛在執行成本的影響程度較大，並且發現業者只是欠缺良好的宣導與誘因，如體制完善，便有意願加入供應鏈安全政策，這樣的發現也給予政府與國際物流中心業者明確的改善與政策制定方向。

After the disastrous event of September 11, 2001, the global supply chain facing the threat of terrorist attacks, and the international trade also suffered heavy damage,lead to development international supply chain security police or standard like Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism(C-TPAT). And Taiwan plays an important
role in the international economic, must to participate in this trend of international supply chain security issue. International distribution centers(IDC) also plays a crucial role in providing a number of logistics service. IDC probably concerned with the cost of assuring security and also the limiration caused the severe security check. Therefore,this study adopts Stated Preference(SP) design survey to investigate Taiwan IDC, and adopts Multinomial Logit Model(MNL) and Nested logit model(NL) to formulate the reaction alternatives choice. The sensitive analysis was also conducted to examine the impact of various policy incentives on IDC’s participating intention to global
customs-trade partnership against terrorism.

誌謝.....................................................................................................I
摘要................................................................................................... II
Abstract .......................................................................................... III
目錄..................................................................................................IV
圖目錄............................................................................................ VII
表目錄...........................................................................................VIII
第一章 緒論...................................................................................... 1
1.1 研究動機與背景....................................................................................... 1
1.2 研究目的................................................................................................... 2
1.3 研究範圍................................................................................................... 3
1.4 研究流程................................................................................................... 4
第二章 文獻探討.............................................................................. 6
2.1 供應鏈理論發展....................................................................................... 6
2.1.1 小結.............................................................................................. 14
2.2 安全供應鏈政策實施概況..................................................................... 17
2.2.1 美國機制（C-TPAT）................................................................. 17
2.2.2 世界關務組織（WCO SAFE） .................................................. 23
2.2.3 優良廠商（AEO）...................................................................... 25
2.3.4 全球共同承認.............................................................................. 27
2.3.5 世界關務組織AEO..................................................................... 28
2.3.6 歐盟AEO..................................................................................... 29
2.3.7 世界關務組織與歐盟AEO 的標準與規定相異處.................... 30
2.3.8 小結.............................................................................................. 36
2.3 國際物流中心業者特性與概況............................................................. 37
第三章 研究方法............................................................................ 40
3.1 敘述性偏好（Stated Preference） ......................................................... 40
3.1.1 敘述性偏好法應用...................................................................... 40
3.1.2 敘述性偏好使用步驟.................................................................. 43
3.2 羅吉特模式（Logit model） ................................................................. 47
3.2.1 個體選擇模式應用...................................................................... 47
3.2.2 消費者行為選擇理論.................................................................. 48
3.2.3 二項選擇機率模式...................................................................... 49
3.2.4 羅吉特模式（Logit model） ...................................................... 49
3.2.5 巢式羅吉特（Nested logit model, NL） .................................... 51
3.2.6 模式校估...................................................................................... 54
3.2.7 羅吉特模式之變數...................................................................... 55
第四章 問卷設計與資料整理........................................................ 56
4.1 問卷設計................................................................................................. 56
4.1.1 研究對象...................................................................................... 56
4.1.2 問卷設計流程.............................................................................. 56
4.1.3 屬性整理...................................................................................... 57
4.1.4 屬性水準值之訂定...................................................................... 60
4.2 問卷結構................................................................................................. 64
4.2.1 物流中心業者公司資料.............................................................. 64
4.2.2 業者對安全供應鏈政策之瞭解程度.......................................... 64
4.2.3 敘述性偏好題.............................................................................. 64
4.2.4 個人基本資料.............................................................................. 65
4.3 資料蒐集................................................................................................. 66
4.3.1 調查對象...................................................................................... 66
4.3.2 樣本回收...................................................................................... 66
4.4 敘述性統計.............................................................................................. 67
4.4.1 公司資料...................................................................................... 67
4.4.2 個人資料...................................................................................... 68
4.4.3 了解及影響程度調查.................................................................. 69
4.4.4 交叉分析...................................................................................... 70
4.4.5 小結.............................................................................................. 76
第五章 實證分析............................................................................ 78
5.1 多項式羅吉特模式................................................................................. 78
5.2 巢式羅吉特模式..................................................................................... 80
5.3 多項式與巢式羅吉特校估結果之比較................................................. 83
5.4 敏感度分析............................................................................................. 84
5.4.1 不選擇方案敏感度分析.............................................................. 85
5.4.2 C-TPAT 第一級方案敏感度分析................................................. 87
5.4.3 C-TPAT 第二級方案敏感度分析................................................. 88
5.4.4 C-TPAT 第三級方案敏感度分析................................................. 90
5.4.5 WCO SAFE 方案敏感度分析...................................................... 91
5.4.6 歐盟AEO 方案敏感度分析........................................................ 93
5.4.7 小結.............................................................................................. 94
5.5 政策模擬................................................................................................. 95
5.5.1 提高優惠政策.............................................................................. 95
5.5.2 強制懲罰政策.............................................................................. 95
5.5.3 綜合政策...................................................................................... 96
5.5.4 佔有率極大政策.......................................................................... 96
5.6 小結.......................................................................................................... 97
5.6.1 多項式羅吉特.............................................................................. 97
5.6.2 巢式羅吉特.................................................................................. 98
第六章 結論與建議........................................................................ 99
6.1 結論......................................................................................................... 99
6.1.1 關鍵因素分析結果...................................................................... 99
6.1.2 敏感度分析結果........................................................................ 100
6.2 建議....................................................................................................... 101
6.3 研究貢獻............................................................................................... 102
6.4 研究限制與後續研究方向................................................................... 103
參考文獻........................................................................................ 104
英文部分.............................................................................................. 104
中文部分.............................................................................................. 107
網頁資料.............................................................................................. 108
附錄 A（問卷）........................................................................... 109
附錄 B L54（21x325）直交表.................................................... 117

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