臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

折扣效用模式是將時間因子納入考量，以解釋人類跨期決策行為之模式，目前之折扣效用模式主要由指數型及雙曲線型兩種模式延伸，其中雙曲線折扣效用模式可以解釋指數型無法解釋之偏好反轉現象，且其下降速度較為緩慢，因此雙曲線折扣效用模式成為研究之主流，但其本身仍舊無法解釋部份異常現象，因此本研究將考量未來結果發生與否帶給決策者不同之內心感受，因實際發生結果與預期發生結果有落差存在，故在原始雙曲線折扣效用模式中，加入主觀快樂之內心感受程度，即可能會影響決策之情緒函數。本研究結合此情緒函數與雙曲線折扣效用模式，分別探討報酬大小、報酬發生機率與報酬獲得時間不同時，決策者情緒波動對跨期決策之影響，其後利用此模式理論推論期望之快樂情緒與效用折扣之相關性，以修正原始跨期折扣效用模式無法處理未來結果可能不發生之情況，裨能更合理解釋人類之跨期決策行為。

Discount utility is used to explain human decision behaviors for different points in time under the consideration of time preference. Current studies have been extended from two basic models, which are the exponential and the hyperbolic discount utility models. The more popular hyperbolic discount model is well recognized for resolving the effects of preference reversal and is less steeply discounting than that for the exponential discount model. However, to enhance the capability of explaining the intertemporal decision making behaviors, an emotional hyperbolic discount utility model which is constructed by the combination of emotional factors and discount utility was proposed. The proposed model revised the conventional hyperbolic discount utility model by introducing a emotional factor of which the different feelings between the actual and the anticipative results are considered. The proposed model is able to account for the effect of decision makers’ emotional flutuation for prospects with different combinations of payoff, probability,and time, and, in addition, is capable of infering the relationships between the emotional factor and the discount utility to explain the situation that the result will happen or not in the future. Therefore, the proposed model can interpretate intertemporal decision making behaviors more rationally.

中文摘要…………………………………………………………………….Ⅰ
英文摘要……………………………………………………………….........Ⅱ
誌謝…………………………………………………………………….........Ⅲ
目錄……………………………………………………………………...…Ⅳ
表目錄…………………………………………………………….…………Ⅵ
圖目錄……………………………………………………………………….Ⅶ
第一章 緒論…………………………………………………………...……1
第一節 研究背景……………………………………………………………………1
第二節 研究動機………………………………………………………….……...…2
第三節 研究目的……………………………………………………………………3
第四節 研究流程……………………………………………………………………3
第五節 論文架構..…………………………………………………………………5
第二章 文獻探討……………………………………………………...……6
第一節 期望效用理論………………………………………………………………6
一、矛盾現象…………………………………………………………..…………7
二、非期望效用………………………………………………………..…………9
第二節 效用折扣…………………………………………………………………..10
一、折扣效用模式…………..…………………………………………………..10
二、異常現象……………….…………………………………………….……..12
三、折扣效用模式之修改..……………………………………………….…...16
第三節 情緒相關之研究………………………………………..………………..21
第三章 情緒雙曲線折扣效用…………………………………...………..24
第一節 問題描述……………………………………………………………..…..24
第二節 研究架構……………………………………………………………..…..25
第三節 研究步驟……………………………………………………………..…..27
第四節 情緒雙曲線折扣效用模式…………………………………………..…..29
一、模式建構…………………………………………………………………..29
二、參數討論…………………………………………………………………..37
三、異常現象之解釋……………………………………………….…….……40
第四章 性質討論…………………………………………...……………..43
第一節 折扣率..…………..……………………………………………………..…43
第二節 風險態度…………………………………………………….………….....50
第五章 結論………………………………...……………………………..58
第一節 研究成果………………………………………………………………..…58
第二節 研究限制.………..……………………………………………………..….58
第三節 未來研究方向………………………………………….……………….....59
參考文獻…………………………………………………...………………..61

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