臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

實獲值管理 (earned value management, EVM) 是利用計畫值跟實際成本做比較，用來評估專案進度與成本績效的專案管理工具。相較於要徑法 (critical path method, CPM) 以及計劃評核術 (program evaluation and review technique, PERT) ，實獲值（earned value, EV）能夠更準確的控管成本，可以更精準的分析與控制專案的績效。在開發資訊系統的專案初期，由於時程估計存在模糊的本質，常導致專案無法如期交付產品。本研究利用EVM結合模糊及合理論 (fuzzy set theory)，考慮在不確定性條件下完成的時間和成本估算，分析模糊實獲值各指標，有利於更準確的預測專案進度。本研究利用MS-Excel建構一系統，提供專案的績效指標資訊以驗證本研究所提出之模式的實用性。

Earned value management (EVM) is a project management tool by comparing the plan values and actual values to evaluate the project performance in schedule and cost. Comparing with the critical path method (CPM) and program evaluation and review technique (PERT), EVM is more useful and precise to analyze and control the project performance. In information system development project, the project delivables are always undeliverable due to the schedule evaluation exist fuzzy nature during the early stage of the information system development project. This study use EVM combine with fuzzy set theory to proposed the fuzzy EMV model to evaluate the each performance index under the schedule uncertain scenario. The proposed fuzzy EVM model is more useful precise for controlling the project performance under the schedule uncertainty situation. This study also uses the MS-Excel to construct an easy information calculating system to demostrate the availability of the proposed model.

中文摘要 i
英文摘要 ii
誌 謝 iv
目 錄 v
表 目 錄 vii
一、 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 2
1.2 研究目的 3
1.3 研究流程 4
1.4 論文架構 4
二、 文獻探討 6
2.1 專案管理 6
2.1.1 專案之定義 7
2.1.2 專案管理之定義 8
2.1.3 專案管理之相關研究 10
2.2 實獲值管理 14
2.2.1 實獲值管理的發展 15
2.2.2 實獲值管理相關研究 16
2.3 模糊集合理論(fuzzy set theory) 21
2.3.1 模糊集合(fuzzy sets) 21
2.3.2 α-截集 22
2.3.3 模糊數 23
2.3.4 語意變數 25
三、 模糊實獲值管理模式 26
3.1 研究架構 26
3.2 計算模糊實獲值管理各績效指標 29
四、 個案說明 39
4.1 整合專家對個案評估糢糊完工程度 39
4.2 整合專家對於專案現況與計畫值做比較 40
4.3 糢糊實獲值推導 40
4.4 模糊進度績效指標推導 42
4.5 模糊成本績效指標推導 43
4.6 模糊進度差異推導 44
4.7 模糊成本差異推導 45
4.8 預測推導 46
4.9 預計完工差異推導 51
五、 結論與建議 54
5.1 結論 54
5.2 未來研究方向 55
參 考 文 獻 57
附錄A 模糊尺度Excel設定畫面 61
附錄B 各階段PV與AC Excel設定畫面 62
附錄C 模糊EV Excel設定畫面 62
附錄D 模糊CPI與CV Excel設定畫面 63
附錄E 模糊SPI與SV Excel設定畫面 64
附錄F剩餘工作會以預算比率執行Excel設定畫面 65
附錄G剩餘工作會以目前CPI執行Excel設定畫面 66
附錄H剩餘工作同時考慮SPI與CPI的因素Excel設定畫面 67
附錄I 模糊VAC Excel設定畫面 68

[1].Porject Management Institute, Practice Standard for Earned Value Management. PA.: Project Management Institute, 2005.
[2].K. Schwalbe, Information Technology Project Management, fifth edition. MA.: Thomson, 2007.
[3].The Standish Group: http: //www.standishgroup.com/newsroom/chaos_2009.php
[4].J. D. McKeen, T. Guimaraes, and J. C. Wetherbe, “The relationship between user participation and user satisfaction: an investigation of four contingency factors,” MIS Quarterly, Vol. 18, No. 4, 1994, pp. 427-451.
[5].W. Xia and G. Lee, “Complexity of information systems development projects: conceptualization and measurement development.” Journal of Management Information Systems, Vol. 22, No. 1, 2005, pp. 45-83
[6].W. M. Han and S. J. Huang, “An empirical analysis of risk components and performance on software projects,” Journal of Systems and Software, Vol. 80, No. 1, 2007, pp. 42-50.
[7].D. Tesch, M. G. Sobol, and G. Klein, and J. J. Jiang, “User and developer common knowledge: effect on the success of information system development projects.” International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 27, No. 7, 2009, pp. 657-664.
[8].K. S. Na, X. Li, and J. T. Simpson, and K.-Y. Kim, “Uncertainty profile and software project performance: A cross-national comparison,” Journal of Systems and Software, Vol 70, No. 1-2, 2004, pp. 155-163.
[9].B. Kitchenham, and S. Linkman, “Estimates, uncertainty, and risk,” IEEE Software, Vol 14, No. 3, 1997, pp.69-74.
[10].Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide), fourth edition. PA: Project Management Institute, 2008.
[11].D. I. Cleland, and W. R. King, Systems Analysis and Project Management. NY: McGraw-Hill. 1983.
[12].B. Smith, Project Concepts in Effective Project Administration. London: Institution of Mechanical Engineers. 1985.
[13].E. M. Sieli, “Managing a Project As a Process,” AT&T Technical Journal. Vol. 70, No. 2, 1991, pp.33-39.
[14].R. K. Wysocki, R. Jr. Beck, and D. B. Crane, Effective Project Management: How to Plan, Manage, and Deliver Projects on Time and within Budget. NY: John Wiley & Sons. 1995.
[15].W. Duncan, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge. PA.: Project Management Institute. 1996.
[16].H. Kerzner, Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning, Scheduling and Controlling. NY: John Wiley & Sons. 2001.
[17].John M.Stewart, “Making Projects Management Work,” Business Horizons. Vol. 8, No. 3, 1965, pp.54-68.
[18].Rory Burke, Project Management: Planning and Control Techniques, 1999.
[19].Russell D. Archildbald, Managing High-technology Program and Projects, New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1981.
[20].H. Kerzner, Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling, tenth Edition. Hoboken, N.J: John Wiley & Sons, 2009.
[21].J.L. Whitten, and L.D. Bentley, Systems analysis & design methods, fifth edition. St. Louis: Times Mirror/Mosby College Pub., 1998.
[22].D. D. Phan, D. R. Vogel, and J. F. N. Jr, “Empirical Studies in Software Development Projects: Fields Survey and OS/400 Study,” Information & Management , Vol. 28, No. 4, 1995.
[23].Y. W. Kim, G. Ballard, “Earned Value Method and Customer Earned Value,” Journal of Construction Research, Vol. 3, No. 1, 2002, pp.55-66.
[24].W. F. Abba, “Earned Value Management - Reconciling Government and Commercial Practices,” Program Manager, 1997, pp. 58-63.
[25].Q. W. Fleming, J. M. Koppleman, “Earned Value Project Management-A Powerful Tool for Software Projects,” CROSSTALK The Journal of Defense Software Engineering, Vol. 7, No. 10, 1998, pp.19-23.
[26].“Mandatory Procedures for Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs) and Major Automated Information System (MAIS) Acquisition Programs,” DoD Regulation 5000.2-R Vol. 2, Appendix VI, 1997.
[27].Q. W. Fleming, J. M. Koppelman, “What’s Your Project’s Real Price Tag?,” Harvard Business Review Article, 2003, pp. 20-22.
[28].熊培霖， “專案管理基礎知識與應用實務：專案管理入門寶典”，博鴻國際, 台北市，2006年。
[29].Q. W. Fleming, and J. M. Koppleman, “Earned Value Project Management, 2nd Ed.”, Project Management Institute: Canada, 2000.
[30].E. Kim, W. G. William, and D. R. Michael, “A model for effective implementation of Earned Value Management methodology,” International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 21, 2003, pp. 375-382.
[31].L. A. Zadeh, “Fuzzy sets Information and Control,” Vol. 8, 1965, pp. 338–353.
[32].D. Dubois, H. Prade, “Operations on fuzzy numbers”, International Journal of System Science, Vol. 9, 1978, pp. 613-626.
[33].L. A. Zadeh, “A. Fuzzy logic and approximate reasoning,” Synthese, Vol. 30, 1975, pp. 407-428.
[34].L. Zadeh, “The concept of a linguistic variable and its application to approximate reasoning. Part I,” Information Sciences, Vol. 8, 1975b, pp. 199–249.
[35].L. M. Naeni, S. Shadrokh, and A. Salehipour, “A fuzzy approach for the earned value managemen” International Journal of Project Management, 2011, pp. 764–772.