臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究主要探討印尼的棕點石斑魚（虎斑）與駝背鱸（老鼠斑），在不同養殖地點及生產規模的經濟分析。研究結果顯示在峇里島養殖的經濟效益最佳，其累積流動資金為USD 30,086.25美元，淨現值NPV為USD 17,095.68美元，益本比(B/C)大於1。大型養殖規模的5年計畫經濟效益為USD 64,340.63美元的累積流動資金；淨現值NPV為USD 36,981.98美元；益本比(B/C)為1.33；內部報酬率IRR為157%；回收週期為0.57年。本研究的經濟分析結果指出，在印尼各地區養殖的駝背鱸皆達到經濟效益。此外，各種生產規模的駝背鱸，其累積流動資金及NPV > 0，B/C > 2，IRR > 300 % 及回收週期為 < 1年。
棕點石斑魚的放養密度若增加，會降低攝食率及飼料生產力，對棕點石斑魚生物經濟亦會產生負面影響。養殖駝背鱸若放養較大尺寸的魚苗，對魚苗的生產力具有負面影響。要提昇養殖虎斑的利潤，未來在放養密度及魚苗尺寸之管理方面，還有改善的空間。

This study presents an economic analysis of tiger and humpback groupers at different locations and production scales in Indonesia. The results highlight Bali incurs cumulative cash flow USD 30,086.25, net present value USD 17,095.68, B/C > 1 and the best location with regard profitability. Large-scale farming is economically viable enterprise with a 5 year projected cumulative cash of USD 64,340.63; a NPV of USD 36,981.98; a benefit cost ratio of 1.33; an internal rate of return of 157%; and a payback period of 0.57 year. Financial analysis of humpback grouper farming reveals all locations to be economically viable. The economic analysis of humpback grouper at different production scales highlight a positive cumulative cash and NPV, a B/C > 2, an internal rate of return > 300% and a payback period < 1 year.
An increase stocking density in tiger grouper farming produces negative effect on feeding and reduces feed productivity. Management of increasing stocking density has negative effect on tiger grouper bioeconomic mechanism. Stocking larger fry size in humpback grouper farming triggers negative effect on fry productivity. Finally, management of stocking density and fry size in grouper farming has more space to improve in future to increase profitability.

Table of Contents
Acknowledgment …………………………………………………… i
Abbreviations ....................................................................................... ii
Abstract ……………………………………………………………… iii
Chinese Abstract ……………………………………………………. iv
Table of Contents …………………………………………………..... v
List of Tables ………………………………………………………… viii
List of Figures ……………………………………………………….. xiii
1. Introduction ………………………………………………………. 1
2. Objectives …………………………………………………………. 5
3. Literature Review ………………………………………………… 6
3.1. Tiger and Humpback grouper ………………………………… 6
3.2. Grouper farming in Indonesia ……………………………….... 6
3.3. Scale of production …………………………………………… 8
3.4. Market ……………………………………………………….... 10
3.5. Economic analysis …………………………………………….. 11
3.5.1. Cumulative cash flows and NPV ………………………… 11
3.5.2. Benefit cost of ratio ………………………………………. 12
3.5.3. Internal rate of return (IRR) …………………………….... 12
3.5.4. Payback period …………………………………………… 12
3.6. Multivariate analysis ………………………………………….. 13
3.6.1. Canonical discriminant analysis …………………………. 13
3.6.2. Principal component analysis ……………………………. 14
3.6.3. Canonical correlation analysis …………………………… 15
4. Materials and Methods …………………………………………… 16
4.1. Data and study site ……………………………………………. 16
4.2. Economic analysis technique …………………………………. 17
4.2.1. Assumption of the economic analysis …………………… 18
4.2.2. Sensitivity analysis ……………………………………….. 18
4.3. Multivariate statistical analysis ………………………………... 19
5. Results ……………………………………………………………… 22
5.1. Tiger grouper farming ………………………………………… 22
5.2. Humpback grouper farming …………………………………... 28
6. Discussion ………………………………………………………… 32
6.1. Tiger grouper farming ………………………………………… 32
6.2. Humpback grouper farming …………………………………... 44
7. Conclusion ………………………………………………………… 51
7.1. Tiger grouper farming ………………………………………… 51
7.2. Humpback grouper farming …………………………………... 52
8. Recommendations ………………………………………………... 54
8.1. Fish producer …………………………………………………. 54
8.1.1. Riau Island ……………………………………………….. 54
8.1.2. Lampung …………………………………………………. 54
8.1.3. East Java …………………………………………………. 54
8.1.4. Bali ...................................................................................... 55
8.1.5. Medium scale ....................................................................... 55
8.1.6. Large scale ……………………………………………….. 55


8.2. Fry producer …………………………………………………… 56
8.3. Feed producer ………………………………………………….. 56
8.4. Policy maker …………………………………………………… 57
9. References …………………………………………………………. 58

List of Tables
Table 1 Development of grouper hatcheries by province and
production scale …………………………………………… 66
Table 2 Average small-scale grouper hatchery operation cost
In Indonesia ……………………………………………….. 67
Table 3 Investment of backyard hatchery ………………………….. 68
Table 4 Production cost of backyard hatchery ……………………… 69
Table 5 Stocking density of nursery I and nursery phase’s of tiger
and humpback grouper in floating cage …………………… 70
Table 6 Stocking density, farming period, survival rate tiger
and humpback grouper growth out farming ………………. 71
Table 7 Investment grouper cage farming in Indonesia …………… 72
Table 8 Cost structure tiger grouper farming in Indonesia ………… 73
Table 9 Cost structure humpback grouper farming in Indonesia … 74
Table 10 Small scale farming in Batam, Riau Island Province,
Indonesia 2002 …………………………………………….. 75
Table 11 Grouper species with aquaculture potential in Indonesia …. 76
Table 12 Summary production variable of tiger grouper farming
in Indonesia based on geographical location ……………… 77
Table 13 Summary production variable of tiger grouper farming in
Indonesia based on production scale ………………………. 78
Table 14 Summary expenditure (USD) of tiger grouper farming in
Indonesia based on geographical location ............................ 79

Table 15 Summary expenditure (USD) of tiger grouper farming in
Indonesia based on production scale ………………………. 80
Table 16 Summary of assumption used for 5 year financial
projection among production scale of tiger grouper cage
culture ……………………………………………………… 81
Table 17 Summary of major financial performance indicator (USD)
of tiger grouper cage culture among geographical
location ……………………………………………………. 82
Table 18 Summary of major financial performance indicator (USD)
of tiger grouper cage culture among production scale …….. 83
Table 19 Summary of sensitivity analysis of financial performance
of tiger grouper cage culture among geographical
location .................................................................................. 84
Table 20 Summary of sensitivity analysis of financial performance
of tiger grouper cage culture among production scale .......... 85
Table 21 Statistics major production cost (USD/m3) among
geographical location ............................................................. 86
Table 22 One-way Manova (major production cost) of geographical
location .................................................................................. 87
Table 23 Statistics major production cost (USD/m3) among
production scale ..................................................................... 88
Table 24 One-way Manova (major production cost) of production
scale ........................................................................................ 89
Table 25 Statistics of productivity among geographical locations ....... 90
Table 26 One-way Manova (productivity) of geographical location .. 91
Table 27 Statistics of productivity among production scales ............... 92
Table 28 One-way Manova (productivity) of production scale ............ 93
Table 29 Principal component analysis of major production cost
variable based on geographical location ................................ 94
Table 30 Principal component analysis of major production cost
variable based on production scale ........................................ 95
Table 31 Principal component analysis of productivity variable
based on location ................................................................... 96
Table 32 Principal component analysis of productivity variable
based on production scale ...................................................... 97
Table 33 Correlation between biology and productivity variables ...... 98
Table 34 Canonical correlation biology and productivity variables ... 99
Table 35 Summary production variable of humpback grouper
farming in Indonesia based on geographical location ........... 100
Table 36 Summary production variable of humpback grouper
farming in Indonesia based on production scale .................... 101
Table 37 Summary expenditure (USD) of humpback grouper
farming in Indonesia based on geographical location ........... 102
Table 38 Summary expenditure (USD) of humpback grouper
farming in Indonesia based on production scale .................... 103
Table 39 Summary of major financial performance indicators
(USD) of humpback grouper cage culture among
geographical location ............................................................. 104
Table 40 Summary of major financial performance indicators
(USD) of humpback grouper cage culture among
production scale ..................................................................... 105

Table 41 Summary of sensitivity analysis of financial performance
of humpback grouper cage culture among geographical
location .................................................................................. 106
Table 42 Summary of sensitivity analysis of financial performance
of humpback grouper cage culture among production
scales ...................................................................................... 107
Table 43 Statistics major production cost (USD/m3) of humpback
grouper among geographical locations .................................. 108
Table 44 One-way Manova (major production cost) of geographical
location ................................................................................... 109
Table 45 Statistics major production cost (USD/m3) of humpback
grouper among production scales .......................................... 110
Table 46 One-way Manova (major production cost) of production
scale ........................................................................................ 111
Table 47 Statistics of productivity humpback grouper among
geographical locations ........................................................... 112
Table 48 One-way Manova (productivity) of geographical
location ................................................................................... 113
Table 49 Statistics of productivity humpback grouper among
production scale ..................................................................... 114
Table 50 One-way Manova (productivity) of production scale ........... 115
Table 51 Canonical discriminant function analysis of major
production cost variable according to geographical
location .................................................................................. 116


Table 52 Cannonical discriminant function analysis of major
production cost variable according to production
scale ....................................................................................... 117
Table 53 Cannonical discriminant function analysis of productivity
variable according to location ............................................... 118
Table 54 Canonical discriminant function analysis of productivity
variable according to production scale .................................. 119
Table 55 Correlation between biology and productivity variables of
humpback grouper ................................................................. 120
Table 56 Canonical correlation biology and productivity variable
of humpback grouper ............................................................. 121


List of Figures
Figure 1 Market chain of live reef fish in Indonesia ............................ 122
Figure 2 Geographical locations of Riau Island, Lampung,
East Java and Bali .................................................................. 123
Figure 3 Cost structure of tiger grouper farming among
geographical location ............................................................. 124
Figure 4 Cost structure of tiger grouper farming among production
scale ....................................................................................... 125
Figure 5 Distribution of location for tiger grouper based on
Major production variable ..................................................... 126
Figure 6 Distribution of scale for tiger grouper based on major
production cost variable ........................................................ 127
Figure 7 Distribution of location for tiger grouper based on
productivity variable .............................................................. 128
Figure 8 Distribution of scale for tiger grouper based on
productivity variable .............................................................. 129
Figure 9 Cost structure of humpback grouper farming among
geographical location ............................................................. 130
Figure 10 Cost structure of humpback grouper farming among
production scale ..................................................................... 131
Figure 11 Distribution of location for humpback grouper based on
major production cost variable .............................................. 132

8.1. Fish producers
8.1.1. Riau Island
1. Grouper producers should be encouraged to invest in hatchery business to decrease fry import from Lampung and Bali
2. Producers must strictly control fish feeding to decrease excessive using of trash fish
3. Producers must increase the number of cage per labor since labor cost was higher in Riau Island
8.1.2. Lampung
1. Producer must increase scale of tiger grouper farming to medium scale to obtain positive NPV.
2. Producers must strictly control fish feeding due to high feed conversion ratio in humpback grouper farming.
8.1.3. East Java
1. FCR in East Java is high and trash fish is quite expensive, then the producers must strictly control fish feeding.
2. Due to high fry cost and low survival rate in humpback grouper farming, the producers should selected good quality fry and stocked appropriate fry size.
8.1.4. Bali
1. The purchase price of trash fish in Bali is expensive, the producers either control fish feeding or applying manufactured feed.
2. In order to increase survival rate in humpback grouper farming, the producers must selected good fry prior stocking into the cage.
8.1.5. Medium scale
1. Labor management in this scale should be improved by increasing number of cage oversee by labor.
2. Producer of tiger grouper must selected good fry to increase survival rate.
8.1.6 Large scale
1. Producers should stock appropriate fry size since larger fry not positively correlated to survival rate.
2. Producers both grouper must apply outstanding feed management in order to reduce feed conversion ratio.
8.2. Fry producer
1. In order to ensure an adequate supply of healthy fry and fingerling of groupers so that the cage aquaculture can continue to expand, the fry producers should improve fry survival rate and fingerling quality.
2. Given that grouper farm distributed in several locations, the private sector must be encourage to establish the hatchery near grouper production centre. Current hatcheries were located in few areas made transportation cost of fry to remote area significantly increase.
3. The survival rate of fry in hatchery must be improved in order to supply cheaper fry to growth out industry. Among the effort was to improve brood stock quality, feeding management and protocol in hatchery. Cheaper fry input would decrease the fry cost, in turn made producers incurs high revenue.

8.3. Feed producer
1. The feed producers must supply the suitable commercial pelleted feed for all stages of life cycle of grouper farming. High energy feeds with high digestibility should be formulated and used so to reduce the nutrient load in effluent.
2. The feed producers must change the farmer perception that stock perform better on trash fish. Farmers should be encouraged to use formulated feeds by stressing the negative impact the use of raw fish may have on the environment.

8.4. Policy maker
1. The current dependence of the marine cage culture sector on trash fish should be reduced. The government agency has to encourage the fish producer using efficient of trash feed.
2. There is an urgent need to develop better management measures in relation to disease prevention and to accelerate the development of vaccines for grouper farming.
3. Current grouper aquaculture have inadequate regulatory measures in place for grouper cage aquaculture, a situation that could lead to the use of available inshore sites beyond their carrying capacities. More government intervention in stream lining cage farming activities may be desirable and would also help to develop farmer market chains and vertically integrate the different sector, bringing about efficacy and cost effectiveness.
4. The sustained development of grouper cage aquaculture will only be ensured if proper regulatory measures are in place. The government has to be pro-active and work in cooperation with the farmers.


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