臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本篇論文的研究主旨是為了解為何有些叛亂運動得以維持統合，而有些運動或組織在面對國家力量或國家其他戰略如和平協定/協議、大赦，亦或是經濟與政治誘因，會形成內部派系、內鬥和分裂。本文以印度東北省份的動亂作為案例研究主體，所提出的觀點為叛亂團體領導人的能力與各種形式的社會網絡，分為核心網絡、外圍網絡和鏈接網絡，此二要素決定叛亂團體是否能與政府力量相抗的命運。社會網絡的結構依叛亂組織所建立的基礎決定其樣貌，及其面對外部和內部挑戰的能力。而能夠獲得三種社會網絡形式的叛亂團體比缺乏這種關係或故意切斷與社會網絡聯繫的團體更具耐力，抵抗力和內部凝聚力。在這方面，叛亂團體承受外在威脅的能力乃根據叛亂領袖如何決策與制定策略，以及在社會網絡中如何確保精英合作和領導階層，並得以在軍事強能和政治調適的國家狀態下加強內部安全。本文的研究途徑是檢驗在印度那加蘭邦（Nagaland）、阿薩姆邦（Assam）與米佐拉姆邦（Mizoram）的三場內戰中十一個武裝團體（少數為非武裝團體）的研究。即使這些團體在相同軍事、政治環境與結構脈絡下，每個動亂都有很大的變化。本文主要與次要的資源多用於追蹤與分析叛亂團體的內部行為與外觀變化與相似性，並以案例研究作為主要的研究途徑。

The main objective of the work presented in this thesis was directed toward understanding why some insurgent movements remain unified and others falter and succumb to factionalism, intra-group fighting and fragmentation when facing state forces and other state strategies like peace accords/agreements, general amnesty, economic and political incentives. By drawing on the cases of India’s Northeast insurgencies—this study put forward the argument that the ability of the insurgent leadership to include various forms of social networks—core networks, peripheral networks and linking networks—is crucial in determining their fate against the government forces. The structure of social network upon which an insurgent organization builds its foundation determines its outward appearance and its ability to face external and internal challenges. The insurgent groups with access to all three forms of social networks are more enduring, resistant and internally cohesive than those who either lack such ties or deliberately cut off links with social networks. In this regard, the ability of the insurgent organizations to withstand external threat lies in how best the insurgent leaders take decisions and formulate strategies with respect to social networks in order to ensure elite cooperation and leadership hierarchy, and to enhance internal security in a militarily strong and politically accommodative state setting. This approach is tested with a study of 11 armed groups (and several unarmed groups) in three civil wars—Nagaland, Assam and Mizoram in India. Due to shared military and political environment and structural contexts, there is a drastic variation in and across each case of insurgency. Primary and secondary resources were used to trace out variations and similarities in their internal behavior and outward appearance. The case studies reveal strong support for the approach.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1: Introduction…………………………………………………………………………1
I. Research Background and Rationale for this Research..1
II. Literature Review.................................................2
III. Research Questions, Hypothesis and Analytical Framework..………………………………13
IV. Research Data and Method……………………………………………………….………….32
V. Limitations of the Study………………………………………………………………………34
VI. Research Process…………………………………………………………………………….34

Chapter 2: History……………………………………………………………………………...36
I. An Introduction to the Wars……………………………………….………………36
II. Trajectories to Insurgency in Nagaland ...........38
III. Root Causes of Conflict in Mizoram …………………..45
IV. Development of Conflict in Assam……………………………………………51
V. Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………………61

Chapter 3: The Evolution of Naga Insurgency……………………………………………….63
I. Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………63
II. Cooperation and Competition in Nagaland: A Discussion…………………………………...
II.I. NNC, One man’s Perversity and Coalition form of Organization (1949-1980)...…………64
II.II. Toward Overcoming Crisis within Leadership Circle (1980-1990)…………...………….73
II.III. The Origin and Evolution of ‘Mother of Insurgencies’: Multiple Fronts (1988-2016)……………………………………………………………………………………………..76
III. Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………………...89

Chapter 4: Assam Agitation………………………………………………………………..…..99
I. Introduction ……………………………………………………………..……………….……99
II. Evolution and Transformation of Insurgency in Assam…………………...………………..101
III. Conclusion: ULFA’s Journey from Solidary to Predatory Form of Outfit…….…………..122

Chapter 5: Rise and Fall of Insurgency in Mizoram……..…130
I. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………..130
II. The Mizo Uprising…………………………….…………………………………………….130
III. Conclusion: Variation in Organizational Structure and Behaviour of the MNF…………...150

Chapter 6: Conclusion………………………………………………………………………...155

Bibliography…………………………………………………………………………………...170
 

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Rammohan, E.N. “The Naga Insurgency”, Journal of United Institution of India 133, no. 554 (2003): 598—608.
Reynal-Querol, Marta. “Ethnicity, Political Systems, and Civil Wars.” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 46, no. 1 (Feb 2002): 29—54.
Reyal-Querol, Marta. “Ethnicity, Political Systems and Civil wars”, Journal of Conflict Resolution 46, no. 1(2002): 29—54.
Ross, Michael. "How Do Natural Resources Influence Civil War? Evidence from 13 Cases." International Organization 58 no. 1 (February 2004): 35—67.
Rothchild, Donald and David Lake. "Containing Fear: The Origins and Management of Ethnic Conflict." International Security 21, no. 2 (1996): 41–75.
Saikia, Jaideep. "Revolutionaries or Warlords: ULFA’s Organizational Profile." Frontlines: Writings on Conflict and Resolution 9 (2001): 105—129.
Saikia, Jaideep. “Allies in the Closet: Over-ground Linkages and Terrorism in Assam,” Frontlines: Writings on Conflict and Resolution 9 (2001). Available from: http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/publication/faultlines/volume8/Article4.htm#30
Sashinungla. "Nagaland: Insurgency and Factional Intransigence." Faultlines 16 (2003).
Sashinungla. "The Chastising Insurgency." South Asia Intelligence Review 2, no. 7 (2003).
Satapathy, R.K. “Mediating Peace: The Role of Insider-Partials in Conflict Resolution in Mizoram”, Faultlines: Writings on Conflict and Resolution 15 (2004). See at: http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/publication/faultlines/volume15/article3.htm
Saxton, Gregory D. “Repression, Grievances, Mobilization and Rebellion: A New Test of Gurr’s Model of Ethno political Rebellion”, International Interactions 31, no. 1(2005): 87—116.
Siegel, David A. "When does Repression Work: Collective Action in Social Network." The Journal of Politics 73, no. 4 (October 2011): 993–1010.
Siegel, David A. “Social Networks and Collective Action,” American Journal of Political Science, 53, no. 1(2009): 122—138.
Singh, N William. “The Gurkhas of Mizoram”, Himal: A Review magazine of Politics and Culture, (August 2012).
Snyder, David, and Charles Tilly. "On debating and falsifying Theories on Collective Violence." American Sociological Review 39, no. 4 (1974): 610—613.
Snyder, David, and Charles Tilly. "Hardship and Collective Violence in France." American Sociological Review 37 (1972): 520—32.
Spencer, Davis E. and Hugo Acha Melgar, “Bolivia, a new model insurgency for the 21st century: from Mao back to Lenin,” Small Wars and Insurgencies 28, no. 3(2017): 629—660.
Staniland, Paul. “Between a Rock and Hard Place: Insurgent Fratricide, Ethnic Defection and the Rise of Pro State Paramilitaries,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 56, no. 1 (2012): 16—40.
Talukdar, Sushanta. "Rebel Rule." Frontline 24, no. 17, Aug-Sep 2007.
Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya. “Why Indian Men Rebel? Explaining armed rebellion in the northeastern India”, Journal of Peace Research 48, no. 5(2011): 605—619.
Wood, Elisabeth Jean. "Armed Groups and Sexual Violence: When is Wartime Rape Rare." Politics and Society 37, no. 1 (2009): 131—161.
Wood, R.M., J. Kathman, and S. Gent, “Armed intervention and civilian victimization in intrastate conflicts,” Journal of Peace Research 49, no. 5(2012): 647—660.

Reports

Bhaumik, Subir. Insurgencies in India’s Northeast: Conflict, Co-option and Change. Washington: East West Center, 2007.
Collier, Paul and Anke Hoeffler. Greed and Grievance in Civil War. CSAE WPS/2002-01 (Oxford: Oxford Economic Papers, 2002).
Das, Samir Kumar. Conflict and Peace in India’s Northeast: The Role of Civil Society. Washington: East West Centre, 2007.
Mitra, Durga Madhab (John). Understanding Indian Insurgencies: Implications for Counterinsurgency Operations in the Third World. Work of US Government, Pennsylvania: Strategic Studies Institute, US, 2007.
Selznick, Philip. The Organizational weapon: A Study of Bolshevik Strategy and Tactics, The Rand Corporation, 1952.

Thesis

Christia, Fontini. The Closest of Enemies: Alliance Formation in the Afghan and Bosnian Civil Wars. PhD Diss., Cambridge: Harvard University, 2008.
Cunningham, Kathleen Gallagher. Divided and Conquered: Why States and Self Determination Groups fail in bargain. PhD Diss., San Diego: University of California, 2007.
Furtado, Christina S. Inter-rebel Group Dynamics: Cooperation or Competition the Case of South Asia. PhD Diss., Urbana, Illinois: University of Illinois, 2007.
Lidow, N.H. “Violent Order: Rebel Organization and Liberia's Civil War,” PhD Diss., Stanford University, 2011.
Wagenen, Matthew J. Van. “An Analysis of the Indian Government’s Counterinsurgency Campaign in Jammu and Kashmir”, PhD Diss., Kansas: Faculty of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, 2004.

Website

Bhatt, Sheela. ‘Nagas are looking for a solution within the Indian Union’, The Rediff interview, 31 July 2002. See at: http://www.rediff.com/news/2002/jul/31inter.htm
Bhowmik, Subir. Subir Bhowmik Blogspot. 12 2009. http://subirbhowmikscolumn.blogspot.in/2009/12/rajkhowa-drama-exposes-media-government.html.
Goswami, Namrata. Multiple Rebel Naga Armies in Nagaland. IDSA, July 6, 2012. http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/MultipleRebelNagaArmiesinNagaland_NamrataGoswami_070712 (accessed July 18, 2013).
Hazarika, Sanjoy. ‘Listen to what young Nagas want’. Tehelka (19 June 2015). http://www.tehelka.com/2015/06/listen-to-what-young-nagas-want/?singlepage=1
Kaushik, D. “Rajkhowa's arrest: The beginning of ULFA's end?,” India Today, 11 December 2009. Available from: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/Rajkhowa's+arrest:+The+beginning+of+ULFA's+end/1/74633.html.
Langer, Avalok. ‘Financial package will not solve the Nagaland problem’, Tehelka 7, no. 46 (2010). See at: http://www.tehelka.com/2010/11/financial-package-will-not-solve-the-nagaland-problem/2/
Nath, Sunil. “You can demand anything in India”, Tehelka, 25 November 2006. Available from: http://archive.tehelka.com/story_main22.asp?filename=Ne112506You_can_p28.asp.
Routray, Bibhu Prasad. “ULFA Sleepers,” Outlook. 2005. Available from: http://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/ulfa-sleepers/227855.
Sunil Nath, “Nobody in Assam takes ULFA lightly,” Available from http://www.rediff.com/news/2001/jan/08spec.htm
Shimray interview with Avalok Langer. Available at: http://www.nagalimvoice.com/articles/%e2%80%98india-listened-to-us-only-when-we-took-up-arms%e2%80%99/
https://bodolandobserver.wordpress.com/2016/06/21/the-naga-peace-accord-separate-passport-and-flag-for-nagas-approved-by-goi
https://scroll.in/article/771037/nagaland-conundrum-are-separatist-groups-collecting-taxes-or-running-extortion-rackets
http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/india/states/assam/index.html
http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/india/states/nagaland/timeline/1994.htm

Newspaper
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