臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

　近年來中國大陸的經濟成長逐漸成為世界矚目的焦點，其經濟成長的因素一直是各國學者爭相研究的目標；觀察中國在80年代崛起的過程，我們發現工業化是為其帶來經濟成長的主要因素。90年代以後中國大陸的國民所得逐漸提高，市場上資金的靈活運用也漸漸重要，金融機構就扮演起舉足輕重角色。本研究試圖由金融層面的角度切入，探討中國大陸金融市場的深化對經濟成長的貢獻性，其中金融市場的定義包括了金融中介及資本市場；所使用的數據資料是以中國大陸自1991年至2002年的季度時間數列資料為主。
　　迴歸分析的結果發現，長期的共整合估計模型結果顯示，各個金融深化的指標對經濟成長確實帶來促進的作用，這表示長期而言中國大陸金融改革的結果發揮作用，透過各金融部門和金融商品在制度及品質的提高促進經濟成長。
　　為了研究金融深化和經濟成長之間短期的調整機制，本研究使用誤差修正模型來檢驗二者之間的關係。結果顯示釵h變數並不具備短期誤差修正的效果必須要透過外在政策的調控力量才能使經濟成長朝穩定發展的趨勢前進。

The Economic growth of Mainland China has been the world’s focus these past few years. Every pursuer in academic research wants to know the reasons for China’s growth. Reviewing the developing process for 1980’s period, we found that the speedy industrialization plays a central role in their economic growth. After the year 1990, national income of Mainland China increased substantially, supply of loanable fund increased gradually. At this time, financial institutions begin to play a more important role of channeling funds from supply side to the hands of demands; this research tries to focus on the Chinese financial system and to examine the contribution of financial deepening on the economic growth. The definition for financial system includes financial intermediaries and financial markets. The empirical research uses seasonal data of China’s financial market form 1991 to 2002.
Our regression analysis shows, using long-run co-integration model, financial deepening has a positive impact on economic growth, which proved that China’s financial revolution is very useful.
In order to examine the short-run adjustment mechanisms between financial deepening and economic growth, this paper uses error correction model to discuss their relationships. The results shows that many variables in our model do not have self-correcting process ,which means Chinese government needs to use outside control system to help long-run economic growth to improve its stability.

第一章 緒論------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1
第一節 研究背景與動機---------------------------------------------------------------1
第二節 研究目地------------------------------------------------------------------------ 4
第三節 研究步驟------------------------------------------------------------------------5
第四節 研究範圍------------------------------------------------------------------------6
第五節 章節簡介------------------------------------------------------------------------6
第二章 文獻探討------------------------------------------------------------------------------7
第三章 中國金融歷史發展及其現況----------------------------------------------------13
第一節 中國50年來的金融改革--------------------------------------------------13
第二節 在中國外資銀行的經營現狀----------------------------------------------19
第三節 中國股票市場的現狀及其歷史演變-------------------------------------20
第四章 研究方法----------------------------------------------------------------------------22
第一節 理論模型----------------------------------------------------------------------22
第二節 資料來源及實證過程-------------------------------------------------------24
第三節 實証方法----------------------------------------------------------------------26
第四節 實証模型----------------------------------------------------------------------29
第五章 實証結果----------------------------------------------------------------------------35
第一節 單根檢定----------------------------------------------------------------------35
第二節 共整合分析-------------------------------------------------------------------38
第三節 誤差修正模型----------------------------------------------------------------43
第四節 結論與建議-------------------------------------------------------------------48
附錄：參考文獻--------------------------------------------------------------------------------52


表目錄
表4-2-1：指標選取表------------------------------------------------------------------------26
表5-1-1：各變數水準值之單根檢定結果------------------------------------------------38
表5-1-2：各變數一階差分之單根檢定結果----------------------------------------------39
表5-2-1：A模型共整合檢定結果-----------------------------------------------------------41
表5-2-2：MK模型共整合檢定結果--------------------------------------------------------41
表5-2-3：gk模型共整合檢定結果----------------------------------------------------------41
表5-3-1：經濟效率誤差修正模型估計結果表------------------------------------------47
表5-3-2：資本邊際生產力誤差修正模型估計結果表---------------------------------48
表5-3-3：資本成長誤差修正模型估計結果表------------------------------------------49



























圖目錄
圖1-1-1：歷年股票發行量-------------------------------------------------------------------2
圖1-1-2：中國大陸國內生產總值成長圖-------------------------------------------------3
圖1-3-1：研究步驟圖-------------------------------------------------------------------------5
圖3-1-1：中國金融體系圖-------------------------------------------------------------------18
圖4-2-1：實證程序圖-------------------------------------------------------------------------26

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