臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究旨在探討沉沒成本水準、決策者繼續投資意願與短期導向之關係。由於先前研究認為沉沒成本效應係決策者風險認知偏誤所造成，又短視近利損失厭惡為風險趨避的一種行為表現，故本研究目的在於希望藉由調查台灣證券交易所及櫃檯買賣中心之各公司部門經理人，探討決策者在短期績效評估下，對沉沒成本效應之影響。
本研究採用問卷調查法，探討沉沒成本水準、決策者繼續投資意願與短期導向之間的關係，問卷的變數包含沉沒成本水準、決策者繼續投資意願、績效評估期間、短期導向。本研究以台灣證券交易所及櫃檯買賣中心之各公司部門經理人共計120人為問卷調查對象，共發放120份問卷，搜集90份有效樣本，並採用迴歸分析進行假設檢定。
本研究實證結果顯示沉沒成本水準對於決策者繼續投資意願有顯著性的影響，表示沉沒成本效應確實存在於決策者進行決策之時。進一步發現，短期導向對於沉沒成本效應具有調節效果，沉沒成本水準對決策者繼續投資意願間的關係，受到不同績效評估期間的影響，處於評估期間越短的情況下，沉沒成本水準對於決策者繼續投資意願影響顯著降低，越容易減少沉沒成本效應。本文並根據研究結果提出改進決策者降低沉沒成本效應之政策意涵。

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the level of sunk costs, willingness to keep investing and short-term orientation. However, prior research indicates that sunk cost effects are resulted from the risk cognitive bias, and myopic loss aversion is a behavior of a risk-averse. Thus, the research will investigate managers of companies of the Taiwan Stock Exchange and OTC to observe how sunk cost effects are affected under short-term performance assessment.
A questionnaire survey on the level of sunk costs, willingness to keep investing and short-term orientation was employed, including the following variables: the level of sunk costs, willingness to keep investing, performance assessment periods and short-term orientation. The research method has distributed questionnaires to 120 subjects, one for each, who are managers of companies of the Taiwan Stock Exchange and OTC. 90 valid samples were collected and then analyzed using regression analysis and hypothesis testing.
The results of this study illustrate that the level of sunk costs have a significant effect on the willingness to keep investing, which means that sunk cost effects exist as well. Furthermore, short-term orientation has a moderator effect on sunk cost effects. The relationship between the level of sunk costs and the willingness to keep investing is affected by different performance assessment periods, whereas under a shorter period, the level of sunk costs more weakly affects the willingness to keep investing. That is to say, sunk cost effects increase with time. As a result, the study, in the end, will provide related policy implications and recommendations to decision-makers.

Content
Abstrac i
論文摘要 ii
Acknowledgements iii
Content iv
List of Figure vi
List of Table vii

1. Introduction 1
1.1 Research Background 1
1.2 Research Motivation 1
1.3 Research Purpose 3
1.4 Research Question 3
1.5 Research Methodology 4
1.6 Research Findings 4
1.7 Research Contribution 4
1.8 Research Overview 5
2. Literature Review and Hypothesis Development 6
2.1 Sunk Cost and Sunk Cost Effect 6
2.2 Short-Term Orientation 9
2.3 Sunk Cost Effect and Short-Term Orientation 10
3. Research Methodology 14
3.1 Participant and Research Design 14
3.2 Experimental Scenario 16
3.3 Procedure 17
3.4 Variable Measurement 19
3.4.1 Level of sunk costs 19
3.4.2 Willingness to keep investing 19
3.4.3 Short-term orientation 19
3.5 Analysis Method 20
4. Empirical Results 23
4.1 Level of Sunk Costs and Willingness to Keep Investing (H1) 23
4.2 Level of Sunk Costs, Short-term Orientation and Willingness to Keep Investing (H2) 23
4.2.1 Correlation analysis 23
4.2.2 Moderated Regression Analysis 24
4.3 Supplementary Analysis 31
4.3.1 Overall comparative analysis 31
4.3.2 Individual comparative analysis 32
4.4 Empirical Results 39
5. Conclusions and Recommendations 40
5.1 Conclusions 40
5.2 Recommendations 41
5.2.1 Research Contributions 41
5.2.2 Research Implications 41
5.2.3 Research Limitations 42
5.2.4 Research Suggestions 43
Appendix 44
References 45

List of Figure
Figure 1 The value function of prospect theory. 8
Figure 2 Model of the level of sunk cost and the willingness to keep investing. 9
Figure 3 Model of the level of sunk cost, short-term orientation and the willingness to keep investing. 13
Figure4 Willingness to keep investing: level of sunk cost and length of the performance assessment period. 30
Figure 5 The impact of the performance assessment period on the relationship between level of sunk cost and the willingness to keep investing. 30

List of Table
Table 1 Statistics of demographic variables distribution table. 15
Table 2 The four evaluations given to the project in the past year. 18
Table 3 The single evaluation given to the project in the past year 19
Table 4 Descriptive statistics. 20
Table 5 Correlation analysis of the variables 20
Table 6 Results of regression analysis (Sample = 90) 23
Table 7 Correlation analysis between level of sunk costs and willingness to keep investing of different periods 24
Table 8 Results of moderated regression analysis (Sample= 90) 26
Table 9 Results of regression analysis of the 3-month period (Sample= 20) 27
Table 10 Results of regression analysis of the 6-month period (Sample= 20) 28
Table 11 Results of regression analysis of the 9-month period (Sample= 29) 28
Table 12 Results of regression analysis of the 1-year period (Sample= 21) 28
Table 13 Summary of ANCOVA for regression slope (Four groups) 32
Table 14 Summary of ANCOVA for regression intercepts (Four groups) 32
Table 15 Summary of ANCOVA for regression slope (3-month and 6-month) 35
Table 16 Summary of ANCOVA for regression intercepts(3-month and 6-month) 35
Table 17 Summary of ANCOVA for regression slope (3-month and 9-month) 36
Table 18 Summary of ANCOVA for regression intercepts(3-month and 9-month) 36
Table 19 Summary of ANCOVA for regression slope (3-month and 1-year) 36
Table 20 Summary of ANCOVA for regression intercepts(3-month and 1-year) 37
Table 21 Summary of ANCOVA for regression slope (6-month and 9-month) 37
Table 22 Summary of ANCOVA for regression intercepts(6-month and 9-month) 37
Table 23 Summary of ANCOVA for regression slope (6-month and 1-year) 38
Table 24 Summary of ANCOVA for regression intercepts(6-month and 1-year) 38
Table 25 Summary of ANCOVA for regression slope (9-month and 1-year) 38
Table 26 Summary of ANCOVA for regression intercepts(9-month and 1-year) 39

Arkes, H. R. (1996). The psychology of waste. Journal of Behavior Decision Making, 9(3), 213-224.
Arkes, H. R., &; Blumer, C. (1985). The psychology of sunk cost. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 35(1), 124-140.
Baron, R. M., &; Kenny, D. A. (1986). The moderator-mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51(6), 1173-1182.
Bazerman, M., Beekun, R., &; Schoorman, F. (1982). Performance evaluation in dynamic context: the impact of a prior commitment to the rate. Journal of Applied Psychology, 67, 873-873.
Bellemare, C., Krause, M., Kroger, S., &; Zhang, C. (2005). Myopic loss aversion: information feedback vs. invest. Flexibility. Econ. Lett., 87(3), 319-324.
Benartzi, S., &; Thaler. R. H. (1995). Myopic loss-aversion and the equity premium puzzle. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(1), 73-92.
Bhushan, R., Brown, D., &; Mello, A. (1997). Do noise traders ‘create their own space? Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 32(1), 25-45.
Bonini, C. P. (1977). Capital investment under uncertainty with abandonment options. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 12(1), 39-54.
Brockner, J. (1992). The escalation of commitment to a failing course of action: toward theoretical progress. Academy of Management Review, 17(1), 39-61.
Chow, C. W., Harrison, P., Lindquist, T., &; Wu, A. (1997). Escalating commitment to unprofitable projects: replication and cross-cultural extension. Management Accounting Research, 8(3), 347-361.
Conlon, D. E. &; Garland, H. (1993). The role of project completion information in resource allocation decisions. Academy of Management Review 36, 402-413.
Cronbach, L. J. (1987). Statistical tests for moderator variables: flaws in analyses recently proposed. Psychological Bulletin, 102(3), 414-417.
Cunha, Jr, M., &; Caldieraro, F. (2009). Sunk-cost effects on purely behavioral investments. Cognitive Science, 33(1), 105-113.
Dawes, R. M. (1988). Rational choice in an uncertain world. San Diego: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich.
Dholakia, U. M. (2001). A motivational process model of product involvement and consumer risk perception. European Journal of Marketing, 35(11/12), 1340-1362.
Fan, D. H. (1992). The functions, assumptions, and limitations for analysis of covariance. Journal of National Taiwan Normal University, 37, 133-163 (In Chinese).
Garland, H. (1990). Throwing good money after bad: the effect of sunk costs on the decision to escalate commitment to and ongoing project. J. Appl. Psychol., 75(6), 728-731.
Garland, H., &; Newport, S. (1991). Effects of absolute and relative sunk cost on the decision to persist with a course of action. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 48(1), 55-69.
Hilton, R. W. (2008). Managerial Accounting: Creating Value in a Dynamic Business Environment, 7e. Taiwan: McGraw-Hill Companies.
Hilton, R.W. (2010). Managerial Accounting: Creating Value in a Dynamic Business Environment, 8e. Taiwan: McGraw-Hill College.
Hongren, C., Foster , G., &; Datar. S. M. (2006). Cost Accounting: A Managerial Emphasis, 9e. Prentice Hall.
Hughes, C. T., &; Gibson, M. L. (1991). Students as surrogates for managers in a decision making environment: an experimental study. Journal of Management Information Systems, 8(2), 153-166.
Kahneman, D., &; Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Kahneman, D., &; Tversky, A. (1984). Choices values and frames. Am. Psycholo., 39(4), 341-350.
Keil, M. B., Tan, C. Y., Wei, K., Saarine, T., Tuunaine, V., &; Wassenaar, A. (2000b). A cross-cultural study on escalation of commitment behavior in software projects. MIS Q., 24(2), 299-324.
Keil, M., Mann, J., &; Rai, A. (2000a). Why software projects escalate: an empirical analysis and test of four theoretical models. MIS Q., 24(4), 631-663.
Keil, M., Mixon, R., Saarinen, T., &; Tuunainen V. (1995). Understanding runaway information technology projects: results from and international research program based on escalation theory. Journal of Management Information Systems, 11(3), 67-87.
Keil, M., Truex, D. P., &; Mixon, R. (1995). The effects of sunk cost and project completion on information technology project escalation. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 42(4), 372-381.
Kelly, M. (1997). Do noise traders influence stock prices? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29(3), 351-363.
Mann, J. (1996). The Role of Project Escalation in Explaining Runaway Information Systems Development Projects: a Field Study. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, Georgia State University, Atlanta: GA.
March, J.G., &; Shapira, Z. (1987). Managerial perspectives on risk and risk taking. Management Science, 33(11) , 1404-1418.
McAfee, R. P., Mialon, H. M., &; Mialon, S. H. (2010). Do sunk costs matter? Economic Inquiry, 48(2), 323-336.
Merchant, K.A., &; Bruns, W. J. (1986). Measurements to cure management myopia. Business Horizons, 29(3), 56-64.
Merchant, K. A., &; Manzoni, J. F. (1989). The achievability of budget targets in profit centers: a field study. The Accounting Review, 64(3), 539-558.
Sharp, D. J., &; Salter, S. B. (1997). Project escalation and sunk costs: a test of the international generalizability of agency and prospect theory. Journal of International Business Studies, 28(1), 101-121.
Shapira, Z. (1995). Risk Taking: A Managerial Perspective. New York: Russel Sage Foundation.
Slovic, P. (1969). Differential effects of real versus hypothetical payoffs on choices among gambles. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 80(3), 434-437.
Snedecor, G. W., &; Cochran, W. G. (1989). Statistical methods. Iowa State University Press: AMES.
Soman, D., &; Cheema, A. (2001). The effect of windfall gains on the sunk cost effect. Marketing Letters, 12(1), 51-62.
Soman, D., &; Gourville, J. T. (2001). Transaction decoupling: how price bundling affects the decision to consume. Journal of Marketing Research, 38(1), 30-44.
Southwood, K. E. (1978). Substantive theory and statistical interactions: five models. American Journal of Sociology, 83(5), 1154-1203.
Staw, B. M. (1976). Knee-deep in the big muddy: a study of escalating commitment to a chosen course of action. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 16(1), 27-44.
Staw, B. M., &; Ross, J. (1978). Commitment to a policy decision: a muti-theoretical perspective. Administratives Science Quarterly , 23(1), 40-64.
Stede, W. A. V. (2000). The relationship between two consequences of budgetary controls: budgetary slack creation and managerial short-term orientation. Accounting, Organization and Society, 25(6), 609-622.
Tan, H. T., &; Yates, J. F. (1995). Sunk cost effects: the influences of instruction and future return estimates. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 63(3), 311-319.
Teger, A. I. (1980). Too Much Invested to Quit: The Psychology of the Escalation of Conflict. New York: Pergamon Press.
Thaler, R. (1985). Mental accounting and consumer choice. Mark. Sci., 4(3), 199-214.
Thaler, R. H. (1980). Toward a positive theory of consumer choice. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 1(1), 39-60.
Thaler, R. H., Tversky, A., Kahneman, D., &; Schwartz, A. (1997). The effect of myopia and loss aversion on risk taking: an experimental test. Q. J. Econ., 112(2), 647-661.
Tversky, A., &; Kahneman, D. (1992). Advances in prospect theory cumulative representation of uncertainty. J. Risk Uncertainty, 5(4), 297-323.
Whyte, G. (1986). Escalating commitment to a course of action: a reinterpretation. Academy of Management Review, 11(2), 311-321.
Whyte, G. (1993). Escalating commitment in individual and group decision-making: a prospect theory approach. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 54(3), 430-455.
Yang, M. L., Cheng, K. C. &; Ni, F. Y. (2009). The relationship between risk perception and sunk cost effect. Journal of Management &; Systems, 16(4), 487-504(In Chinese).