臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

退撫基金管理績效之良莠，不僅影響國家財政負擔，亦攸關軍公教人員權益，又因台灣近年來受到全球金融風暴及國內政經動盪因素影響，許多公司驚傳財務危機，故我國針對財務預警之研究確有實質上的必要性，且隨著知識型態改變，智慧資本更可能是驅動公司價值之要素，故本研究整合財務比率與智慧資本指標，運用決策樹來建構財務危機預警模型，提供給退撫基金投資管理決策單位有用的預警訊息。研究結果顯示「稅後淨值報酬率」、「每股盈餘」、「現金流量比率」等3項財務比率及「每人營業利益」、「每人營收」、「人力資產報酬率」等3項智慧資本指標具有顯著的預測能力，而投資人在判斷企業是否具有良好經營成效時，不僅應注重財務報表揭露數據之呈現，亦應掌握該企業智慧資本等無形資產的概念。

The management performance of the Pension Fund not only affects the country's financial burden, but is also relevant to the government personnel equity. Resulting in the global financial turmoil and domestic political turmoil of factors, many of the startling news of the financial crisis are spread in Taiwan in recent years. It is essentially required for financial warning, and with the changes of knowledge types, intellectual capital is more likely to drive company’s value, this study integrated financial ratios and intellectual capital indicators, and then used decision trees technique to construct a financial crisis early warning model. It was provided a useful early warning message to the Pension Fund investment managers. In the empirical study, the results show that those indicators: “after-tax net rate of return”, “earnings per share” and “cash flow ratio”, three financial ratios, and “operating profit per person”, “revenue per person”, “Rate of return on human assets”, three intellectual capital index had a significant ability to predict. The judgment which investors determine whether the enterprise has a good business effectiveness or not, not only focuses on the financial statements to expose the data presentation, but also grasp the concept of the intellectual capital and other intangible assets.

目　錄 IV
圖目錄 VII
表目錄 VIII
第一章 緒論1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的3
1.3 研究架構4
第二章 文獻探討6
2.1 退撫基金6
2.2 財務危機7
2.3 智慧資本11
2.4 財務比率分析17
2.5 因素分析19
2.6 資料挖礦22
2.6.1 決策樹的概念 24
2.6.2 決策樹的學習 25
2.6.3 決策樹的演算法28
第三章 研究設計與方法30
3.1 問題定義32
3.2 資料準備33
3.3 因素分析34
3.4 資料挖礦-決策樹36
3.5 解釋與評估37
第四章 實證分析38
4.1 研究樣本及變數選取38
4.2 實證結果 44
4.2.1 KMO與Bartlett檢定 44
4.2.2 主成份分析法 45
4.2.3 直交轉軸48
4.2.4 因素命名50
4.2.5 決策樹財務危機預警模型 51
第五章 結論與建議64
5.1 結論64
5.2 建議65
參考文獻67
中文部份67
英文部份69

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