臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究之主要目的在於檢測分析師之盈餘預測是否會受到各類投資人〈外資、基金、自營商〉與內部關係人之個股交易行為之影響。
本研究根據2000年1月至2005年4月間各月對該會計年度盈餘之分析師預測樣本以及各類投資人各月之持股變化資料進行分析，研究結果發現：
1、分析師預測呈過度樂觀的傾向，且樂觀程度會隨著盈餘宣告日的接近逐漸下降，甚至出現悲觀的傾向的現象。
2、分析師預測修正時，是會參考投資人交易策略的資訊的。越接近年底時，投資人交易行為對於分析師預測修正態度影響越大。
3、分析師會隨著年底時經理人的增加持股變化而增加樂觀的程度，但對於董監事及大股東增加持股抱持著悲觀的看法。
4、在機構投資人方面，只有當期及前期自營商持股變化在12月與分析師預測有正向顯著影響，而其它月份並不顯著。

The main purpose of the study is to investigate whether analyst earnings forecast will be influenced by the trading behaviors of insiders and various types of investors including QFIIs, mutual funds, and securities firms.
This study is based on monthly analyst forecast consensus data and monthly insider and institutional stock holding provided by Taiwan Economic Journal. The main findings of this study are summarized as follows：
1、The analyst earnings forecast consensus are mostly over-optimistic, but will be revised downward as the earnings announcement date is approaching.
2、Overall speaking, analyst earnings forecasts are influenced by institutional investors and insiders. Such influence is most significant at the last month of the year.
3、As the insiders﹙managers﹚increase their holdings, analysts will react positively in their earnings forecasts. On the other hand, analysts react negatively when board member insiders and other major stake-holders increase the stakes. But such negative influences are not significant.
4、Among the various types of institutional traders, only securities firms holdings are positively related to analyst earnings forecasts. The positive effect is only significant at last month of the year.

第一章 研究動機
1.1 研究動機
1.2 研究目的
第二章 文獻探討
2.1分析師預測修正之文獻探討
2.1.1分析師預測修正是否具資訊內涵之相關文獻
2.1.2分析師預測修正影響因素之相關文獻
2.1.3分析師預測品質之相關文獻
2.1.4分析師預測修正產生群聚現象之相關文獻
2.1.5管理當局引導分析師預測修正態度的轉變
2.2 投資人類型之文獻探討
第三章 研究方法
3.1資料來源、研究期間與選樣標準
3.1.1資料來源及研究期間
3.1.2內部關係人之定義
3.1.3選樣標準
3.2假設建立
3.3變數衡量與定義
3.4實證模型
第四章 實證結果
4.1敘述統計
4.2實證結果
4.1.1分析師預測態度趨勢分析
4.2.2投資人交易行為與分析師預測關聯性分析
第五章 結論
5.1敘述統計
5.2實證結果
5.3 研究限制
附錄圖表
參考文獻
表4-1自變數及應變數敘述統計
表4-2分析師預測態度轉變與其他自變數之相關係數矩陣(不分月份)
表4-3七月分析師預測態度轉變與其他自變數之相關係數矩陣
表4-4八月分析師預測態度轉變與其他自變數之相關係數矩陣
表4-5九月分析師預測態度轉變與其他自變數之相關係數矩陣
表4-6十月分析師預測態度轉變與其他自變數之相關係數矩陣
表4-7十一月分析師預測態度轉變與其他自變數之相關係數矩陣
表4-8十二月分析師預測態度轉變與其他自變數之相關係數矩陣
表4-9 分析師預測態度變動趨勢表(全期間、不考慮預測次數)
表4-10分析師預測誤差(FE)變動趨勢表(全期間、不考慮預測次數)
表4-11分析師預測態度變動趨勢表(全期間、預測次數8次以上)
表4-12分析師預測誤差(FE)變動趨勢表(全期間、預測次數8次以上)
表4-13各類投資人平均持股變動狀況
表4-14當投資人持股變化方向不同時，分析師預測誤差修正幅度趨勢
表4-15內部關係人持股變動對Diff_fe%變化幅度影響(全期間)
表4-16內部關係人持股變動對Diff_fe%變化幅度影響(各季)
表4-17機構投資人持股變動對Diff_fe%變化幅度影響(全期間)
表4-18機構投資人持股變動對Diff_fe%變化幅度影響(各季)
表4-19 Order Probit分析(全期間、不考慮月份差異)
表4-20分析師預測態度變動比例分配
表4-19 Order Probit分析(9~12月各月份別)

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