臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

颱風由於風場結構複雜波浪瞬息萬變，在颱風來臨時海面可能由風平浪靜的狀態下，在數小時後波浪急遽增大至五六米的大浪，此一現象將嚴重危害沿岸居民的生命安全，因此如果我們能有效的預報颱風波浪將可以減少颱風波浪引起的災害。目前波浪預報是以預報的海面風場輸入波浪預報模式中進行波浪推算。由於預報颱風風場一般施工單位取得不易，導致颱風波浪預報時遭遇有許多瓶頸，故本研究將採用客觀分析預報法提供一個簡便的颱風波浪預報方法。
颱風波浪客觀分析預報法，是利用大量的歷史颱風波浪資訊，統計歸納颱風在不同位置上時預報海域的波浪特性，藉由這些統計資料以預報颱風波浪；本研究中對於波浪資料的取得乃藉由波浪模式推算海面波浪以提供客觀分析預報時的歷史颱風波浪資訊。
前人對颱風波浪特性的研究顯示，颱風來臨前海面上的湧浪成份佔有相當的比例，且颱風是一快速移動風場，故在模式的選擇上採用Wen(1999)所提出的混合波浪模式進行颱風期間的波浪推算；於其理論中提及該模式對此兩種特性皆有不錯的表現。波浪模式推算波浪的能量來自於風，本文採用李(1993)基於艾克曼動力理論，利用海面氣壓場計算得到海面十米的風場，氣壓場以中央氣象局提供颱風時刻12小時一筆的海面氣壓資料進行風場計算，然以此時間間距推算颱風波浪無法表現颱風波浪的特性，故需內插出較小時間間距的海面氣壓，以往的線性內插法將使內插出來的海面氣壓場出現兩個颱風中心的不合理的現象，本研究提出移動線性內插法(Shifting liner Interpolation)，經本文比較也發現此內插方法改進了以往線性內插的不合理現象。其後將內插出氣壓場轉成海面十米的風場進行波浪推算，以提供客觀分析預報所需的大量歷史颱風波浪資料，並將統計之颱風資料繪製成平均波高比值圖、最大波高比值圖以提供颱風定量波浪預報之用。

The Objective Analysis, which is widely implemented in routine weather forecsting, is utilized in present study to predict typhoon waves around Taiwan. In order to establish the statistical model, large amount information of historical typhoon waves, which were obtained by observations and numerical model simulations, have been adopted.
Due to the following facts that the typhoon wind fields features the nature of highly temporal and spatial variation, and that the typhoon wave filed is largely influenced by the evolution of typhoon swells, the Hybrid Wave Model proposed by Wen(1999) is utilized in present study to simulate the typhoon waves. Concerning to the input of the wave model, the predicted wind field is calculated using Lee(1993)’s formula, which were derived based on Ekman theory. The predicted wind direction and wind speed at the elevation of 10 m could thus be estimated from the forecasting barometric field, which is provided by Central Weather Bureau every twelve hours.
As the barometric data issued with time interval of 12 hours, details of the fast moving typhoon might not be conserved. For the sake to obtain accurate interpolation of barometric for single hour estimation, an new interpolation method is proposed in present study. The method entitled as Shift Linear Interpolation, is proved to be capable of eliminating the unreasonable results of using tradictional linear interpolation, such as the appearance of two typhoon eyes. Finally, the statistical model established using objective analysis is validated by observed typhoon wave. The results demonstrate the effective of present model.
The present typhoon wave forecasting model is easy to be implemented. It is useful for engineering applications when there is no numerical wind field available and providing typhoon wave forecast for a specific site in the offshore or coastal regions is necessary.

第一章 台灣海域颱風波浪的重要性1
1-1前言1
1-2前人對於颱風波浪之研究2
1-3研究動機與目的3
1-4研究方法3
5本文組織4
第二章波浪推算基礎理論5
2-1混合(Hybrid)模式基本理論5
2-1-1混合波浪模式採用的能量控制方程式5
2-1-2參數化方向波譜8
2-1-3湧浪能量源函數項9
2-1-4處理快速變化風場的原因10
2-2波浪模式陸地邊界處理11
2-2-1數值計算誤差來源12
2-3-2陸地邊界修正方法13
2-3風場的採用14
2-4驗證-波浪模式推算結果與資料實測比較16
2-4-1不同數值差分方法下波浪推算的驗證16
2-4-2季風下波浪推算結果的驗證16
第三章 風場內插對波浪模式推算的影響18
3-1 風場的準確性對波浪模式計算結果之影響18
3-1-1 風場對混合波浪模式的影響18
3-1-2 快速移動風場對波浪場影響19
3-1-3 前人模擬颱風風場的方法19
3-2 颱風風場內插方法的改進21
3-3-2 內插方法的介紹21
3-4 內插颱風風場結果之驗證23
3-4-1 與中央氣象局風場比較探討空間的誤差23
3-4-2 移動線性內插與線性內插風場結果的比較24
3-4-3不同風場型態下之討論24
第四章 台灣海域颱風波浪之之定量預報26
4-1波浪客觀分析26
4-1-1客觀分析預報繪製流程26
4-2颱風波浪客觀分析應用說明27
4-3分析結果與討論29
第五章結論與建議31
結論31
建議：31
參考文獻33

1.Wen, S. C.,D. C. Zhang and P.F. Guo”A Hybrid model for numerical wave forecasting and its implementation-I The wind wave model”Acta Oceanol sinica, Vol.8 ,pp1-14,(1989).
2.Wen, S. C.,D. C. Zhang and P.F. Guo ,” Analyticlly Derived Wind-Wave Dircetional Spectrum. Part 1. Derivation of the Spectrum ,”J. Oceanogr.,Vol 49,pp131-147,(1993).
3.Wen, S. C., P.F. Guo and D. C. Zhang ,”Analyticlly Derived Wind-Wave Dircetional Spectrum. Part 2.Characteristics Comparison and Verification of Spectrum , Vol 49,pp131-147,(1993).
4.Hsu, S.A.(1992),”Forecasting maximun significant wave height induced by minimun centrcal pressure of a tropical strom sea,”Journal of Gerphysical, Research,pp535-539
5.WAMDI Group, “The WAM model-A Third Generation Ocean Wave Prediction Model, ”J. Phys. Oceanogr , Vol. 18,pp 1775-1810,1988
6.Lamb,H.,” Hydrodynamics ,”6th ed New York :Dover ,pp738,1932
7.Vladimir V. Masjukov,” A mathematical and computer model of the main tropical hurricane wave system”, Computer Physics Communication,(2000)
8.Amal C. Phadke Christopher D. Martino, Kwok Fai Cheung Samual H. Houston “Modeling of tropical cyclone winds and waves for emergency management”, Ocean Engineering,,2003,pp553-578
9.I.R.Young (2000),” A review of the sea state generated by hurricanes”, Marine Structures,pp201-218
10.Wen, S. C.,C. C. Qian, A. Ye, K. Wu, Z. M. Wu, C.L. Guan and D.L. Zhao”Wave modeling Based on an Adopted Wind-Wave Directional Spectrum ”JOURNAL OF OCEAN UNIVERSITY OF QINGDAO, Vol. 29,pp345-397,(1999)
11.Jie Li, ”Simulation of Typhoon Waves by Using WAM Model”,8th Ocean Models for the APEC Region(WOM-6)
12.Holland, G.J.,” An Analytical Model of the Wind and Pressure profile in Hurricane,” Monthly Weather Review,No 108,pp1212-1218(1980)
13.王時鼎 (1977), “侵台颱風風場特性及各地陣虱預報研究”, 國科會
14.廖建明 (2000), “近岸風浪推算之研究”, 國立成功大學水利及海洋工程學研究所博士論文
15.范揚洺 (2001), “鋒面過境期間波高成長之推算”, 國立成功大學水利及海洋工程學研究所碩士論文
16.李汴軍 (1993), “艾克曼動力理論在海面風場之應用”, 中華民國第十七屆海洋工程研討會論文集，145頁-159頁
17.簡仲和,”滯常性颱風圈內風浪解析解模式應用”,中華民國第十三屆海洋工程研討會論文集,1991,pp314-321