臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本文結合內生成長理論與實證分析，並採用動態GMM追蹤資料模型與1996年新版AREAER中將資本管制區分為13細項的定義方式，探討1995年到2006年125個樣本國家資本管制類型與經濟成長率、成長率波動的關係。透過控制國家發展程度，分析已開發、開發中與低度開發國家是否應採取不同的資本管制措施。
研究結果發現，在小型開放經濟體的內生成長模型下，實質利率是決定實質資本或金融資本管制是否有利於成長率的關鍵。當實質利率為正數時，其值愈高，隱含風險貼水愈高，此時管制金融資本流入可防範債務國的高倒帳風險而有利於經濟成長。然而，高通膨率的國家實質利率常為負數，是以流入的資本多為實質資本而非投機性的金融資本，此時管制實質資本則可增加成長率。實證結果部份，實質資本與金融資本皆會促進經濟成長率，且後者的效果大於前者，已開發國家因基礎建設完善與金融體系健全，資本管制的取消將有利於實質資本的分配利用與金融資金的有效投入實質經濟生產，促使成長率增加。相對而言，國家發展程度較低者因金融環境的投機性風險高，對於實質資本或金融資本都應適時採取一定的管制措施。再而，資本管制對成長率波動的影響為不顯著正相關：顯示資本管制的放寬將可分散投資風險而穩定經濟成長率，且國家發展程度愈低，資本管制愈容易顯著擴大經濟成長率波動。

Based on the endogenous growth theory and empirical investigations, this paper examines the influence of controls on physical and financial capitals on economic growth and growth volatilities from 125 countries over the period from 1995 to 2006. We categorize countries into developed, developing and least developed ones to test whether controls on portfolio and physical capital inflows affect economic growth and growth volatilities differently. About empirical analysis, we use dynamic panel GMM and the definitions of capital control in 1996 by AREAER to verify the theoretical findings.
The theoretical results indicate that the values of real interest rate dominate the effect of capital control on economic growth rates. If the value of real interest rate is positive, financial capital control would enhance economic growth to prevent the default risk from disturbing the real economy. However, for high inflation or the least developed countries, the values of real interst rate are usually negative, then, controls on physical capital leads to faster economic growth. Empirical findings reveal that, before classification, controls on physical and portfolio capitals insulate the real economy from external shocks for all countries and the effect of financial capital control is effective. For developed countries, which have sound infrastructure and financial system, removing capital controls could improve economic growth. In contrast, for lower developed countries, controls on capital inflows, including portfolio and physical capital inflows, decrease speculative attacks and shelter the economy from shocks. In addition, for all countries, free capital mobility enhances risk sharing and reduces economic growth volatilities. Though, the impact is not significant except for lower development countries, including developing and the least developed countries.

第一章　緒論................................. 1
第一節　研究動機與目的....................... 1
第二節　章節架構............................. 6
第二章　文獻回顧............................. 7
第一節　資本管制與經濟成長的相關研究......... 7
第二節　經濟成長與其他變數相關研究........... 10
第三節　資本管制衡量方式的相關文獻........... 11
第三章　理論模型............................. 12
第一節　基本假設............................. 12
一、家計部門................................. 12
二、政府部門................................. 13
三、國外部門................................. 13
第二節　最適決策............................. 14
第四章　實證方法說明......................... 19
第一節　動態GMM追蹤資料模型.................. 19
第二節　變數介紹及研究範圍................... 21
第三節　敘述統計............................. 23
第五章　實證分析結果......................... 26
第一節　資本管制對成長率的影響............... 26
一、未區分國家發展程度的估計結果............. 26
二、依國家發展程度區分的估計結果............. 33
第二節　資本管制對成長率波動的影響........... 44
一、未區分國家發展程度的估計結果............. 44
二、依國家發展程度區分的估計結果............. 50
第六章　結論................................. 60
參考文獻..................................... 63
附錄　樣本國家列表中英對照................... 67

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