臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

國際快遞業在台灣的發展即將進入一嶄新的紀元，國際快遞市場有愈來愈增加的趨勢，未來在台灣如何營運與發展將是國際快遞業的重要課題；然而其在台灣的營運發展將會遭受到許多因素所影響，產生許多不確定性，其中主要來自政府方面的影響最為顯著與重大，因而即產生所謂政治風險。此政治風險可能對於業者的營運有所影響，妨礙了業者經營的目標，甚至阻礙了政府發展台灣成為國際運籌中心的目的，所以必須對於政治風險方面建立風險評估的架構，才能確保目標與目的的達成。因此本研究著眼於此，欲試圖探討政治風險對於國際快遞業營運之影響，實際確認及評估國際快遞業之政治風險來源。所以本研究首先將分析與調查國際快遞業在台灣的政策環境與營運現況，再建立國際快遞業的政治風險評估模式，主要以個體政治風險與總體政治風險，及融合BERI（Business Environment Risk Information）的模式來確認其政治風險源，然後採用不同專家的意見以李克特五尺度法量度兩個項目，包括風險來源發生的機率與風險來源發生的影響程度，以衡量其政治風險，並利用層級架構清楚的AHP（Analytic Hierarchy Process）法系統化地來評估出國際快遞業主要的政治風險。最後對於政治風險課題進行風險控制決策分析，提供業者建議，並回饋建言于政府，冀望對國家整體營運有所助益。

Over the past five years, the official transport agencies in Taiwan were desperate to construct the island as the regional distribution center of international express delivery and, according to the prevalent transport policy, authorized the access of using exclusive working area at the Taipei international airport to two of four main global express delivery companies, i.e. UPS and FedEx. However, owing to incomplete justification and insubstantiality of the transport policies and relative instability of overall political and economics environments, the developments of international express delivery in Taiwan are still sensitively confined to some limitations in political aspects. This study consequently establishes a generic structure for assessing business’ operating risks resulting from political factors and initiates the categories of risk treatments towards which the policy amendments should move to mitigate the operating risks as well as to ensure the reasonability of the overall transport environment. In this study, the operations of international express delivery in Taiwan are empirically and systematically investigated, and, based on the structure of Business Environment Risk Information (BERI), which has been broadly used globally, the potential operating risks are identified and classified into six main groups. The operating risks, defined as the product of event occurrence and event consequences (each of which is measured on the Likert five—metrics scale), are qualitatively answered by 16 professionals representing three different groups. The qualitative risks are assessed by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and tested by Spearman ranking method to compare the relative risks between the events and to reflect the risk perceptions from the different groups of people. By using the skills of risk management, this study devises the principle of political risk control of governments as the directions of transport policy improvements.

壹、序論1
一、研究動機1
二、研究目的3
三、研究方法4
四、研究範圍與限制5
五、研究流程6
貳、國際快遞業營運環境現況8
一、政府對國際快遞業之相關政策與計畫8
二、國際快遞業目前營運情況14
三、國際快遞市場未來預測21
四、台灣未來在全球航空貨運市場中的地位23
五、國際快遞未來展望27
參、政治風險文獻探討34
一、政治風險的起源34
二、政治風險的定義、來源與影響36
三、政治風險的衡量與評估41
四、政治風險的控制47
五、小結51
肆、國際快遞業之政治風險評估架構53
一、本研究之政治風險評估程序53
二、國際快遞業之政治風險定義、來源及內容54
三、政治風險來源項目說明57
伍、衡量評估及控制國際快遞業之政治風險63
一、衡量國際快遞業之政治風險來源63
二、評估其主要政治風險來源67
三、進行風險控制決策分析83
陸、結論與建議91
一、結論91
二、建議94
參考文獻98
附錄：《訪談問卷》103

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