臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

過去從眾相關文獻並未對訊息模糊性與從眾行為的關係，進行深入的分析與驗證。為探討此有趣問題，本研究以基於聲譽與薪酬考量的觀點，在唯一成功決策者可以獲得更高薪酬的前提下，架構理論模型，探討訊息模糊性對從眾行為的影響。本研究的分析結果發現，不論私有訊息相同或相異，只要市場給予唯一成功決策者的薪酬誘因沒有高到可以補償因忽略本身私有訊息的損失下，就會存在有從眾的完美貝氏均衡。本研究並進一步比較於決策者私有訊息相異的情境與私有訊息相同的情境，結果發現相較於決策者私有訊息相異的情境，決策者私有訊息相同的情境，更有可能會出現從眾行為。此外，在決策者私有訊息相同的情境下，除非提高唯一成功決策者可以獲得的薪酬，否則所獲得的私有訊息越精確，決策者越有可能發生從眾現象。但是在決策者私有訊息相異的情境裡，卻是得到訊息模糊程度並不會影響決策者的決策選擇，即決策者並不會因訊息模糊程度的改變，而放棄私有訊息產生從眾行為。

The issue of the relationships between information ambiguity and herding behavior is overlooked and doesn''t has been analyzed and verified in the related herding literature. For exam this intriguing issue, we mold the concept of information ambiguity into the model based on the consideration on reputation and compensation. We find, no matter how the private information is different among the decision-makers, there exists a perfect Bayesian herding equilibrium when the compensation offer to the only one success is not high enough. However, the herding behavior is more possible when decision-makers all observed same information. Under the situation where decision-makers all observed same information, we find that more precise the information, more possible the behavior of reputational herding. But contrary to this argument, we find that when the private information observed by the decision-makers are different, the degree of information ambiguity does not affect decision-makers’ decisions, in another word, the behavior of reputational herding is not influenced by information ambiguity

目 錄
中文摘要…………………………………………………….……………….….i
英文摘要………………………………………………………………………..ii
誌謝………………………………………………………………………………iii
目錄………………………………………………………….…………..…….iv
表目錄…………………………………………………….……………...……v
圖目錄……………………………………………………….……….….…...vi
第壹章 緒論……………………………………..………….………….……1
第一節 研究動機…….………………………………………………...1
第二節 研究目的…………………………………………….…….…..5第三節 研究架構……………………………………….……….……..6
第貳章 文獻探討……………………………….…....……………….……7
第一節 從眾行為之文獻探討…..……………………………………...7
第二節 訊息模糊性之文獻探討……………...……….…………....26
第參章 模型設定…………………………….……..…….…………….…31
第一節 基本架構…………………………………….…….…………31
第二節 決策事件發展……..……………………….…………...…33
第三節 薪酬契約…………………………………….………….……34
第肆章 決策者最適決策之模型推論與分析………..…………...…..35
第一節 決策者A的最適決策分析…………...……………………….35
第二節 決策者B的最適決策分析.…….………..…………….…….37
第伍章 分析結果歸納與實證涵義……..…………….…….……...…..63
第一節 分析結果歸納.………….……………….………….…………63
第二節 實證涵義…………………………………….………….…………68
第陸章 結論與建議….…………………………….…..………….………71
第一節 結論………………………………………………….….….…71
第二節 建議……………………………………………..…..………73
附錄………………………………………….……………………..…………...76
參考文獻……………………………………………………………………...79
表目錄
表3-1決策者的薪酬標準…….…….…..…………….………..……...34
表5-1 從眾行為的分析歸納………….………………………………..……65
表 5-2 訊息模糊程度對從眾行為影響的分析歸納………….….…..………67
圖目錄
圖3-1 模型基本架構……..……….……..…………………..……………32
圖 5-1 兩決策者私有訊息相異情境下，無差異點的決定與訊息模糊程度的影響……..……………………………………………………………….………46
圖5-2 兩決策者私有訊息相同情境下，無差異點的決定與訊息模糊程度的影響……..……………………………………………………………….………62

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