臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究以塔塔加山區的臺灣雲杉 (Picea morrisonicola) 樹輪寬度資料建立輪寬年表，作為探討過去氣候變化的依據，結果重建了 373 年 (1636-2008) 的樹輪寬度年表。根據氣候對樹木生長影響機制，將樹輪寬度與氣候因子進行相關及反應函數分析，結果顯示晚材輪寬主要反映阿里山 7-9 月平均最高溫 (maximum temperature, Tmax)；而早材輪寬主要反映 4-6 月日較溫差 (Diurnal Temperature Range, DTR)。

為了改善傳統樹輪年表建立方法 (ARSTAN) 中，主觀去除樹木生長趨勢的問題，本研究以黃鍔院士在 1998 年所提出「希爾伯特—黃轉換 (Hilbert-Huang Transform, HHT) 」中之總體經驗模態分解法 (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, EEMD) 法作為建立年表的替代方法，將樹輪寬度序列分解為具有不同頻率訊息的分量，並以與氣候反應最佳的分量組合做為新的分量總和年表，提供一個有別於傳統樹輪建立年表的替代方法。EEMD 與 ARSTAN 年表所重建之 Tmax 與 DTR 皆通過重建模式技巧檢測且結果相似，但 EEMD 總和年表在 DTR 重建上結果較佳。

由修正晚材殘差年表所重建之阿里山山區過去 373 年的 7-9 月 Tmax，重建結果可解釋觀測期間 (1951-2008) 7-9 月 Tmax 之 23% 變異 (r=0.48)，並顯示幾個較明顯的暖期，分別是 1718-1726、1908-1916 與 2002-2008。由 NCEP/NCAR 再分析資料顯示 Tmax 反映臺灣夏季受西太平洋夏季季風 (Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon, WNPSM) 的影響，在少雨年時，WNPSM 其中一個環流系統—西太平洋副熱帶高壓 (Western Pacific Subtropical High, WPSH) 規模擴大並往西延伸，阻擋西南氣流及梅雨鋒面，並伴隨著東海的反氣旋活動，因而產生異常溫暖且乾燥的夏季，並對應到較大輪寬發生的年份。此外，重建的 Tmax 中最溫暖的 10 年有 8 年與 El Niño 事件的年份相符合，表現出臺灣夏季 Tmax 與 ENSO 活動的關聯性。

以早材 IMF 總和年表重建之阿里山山區過去 373 年 4-6 月日較溫差 (DTR) 可解釋觀測期間 (1934-2000) DTR 之 28% 變異 (r=0.53)。阿里山日照時數與 DTR 的變化趨勢一致 (r=0.87)，而日照時數減少是日間雲層覆蓋量增加的結果，由 DTR 與雲量間顯著的負相關，可證實阿里山山區 DTR 的變小確實與增加的中高雲量有關。此外，重建之 DTR 顯示過去地表接受到的太陽輻射量變化週期約為 28 年；可反映其變化所引起的 global dimming/brightening 及推測 DTR 開始大幅變化的起始時間點。

Virtually very little dendrochronology data have been reported internationally from Taiwan, despite the existence of many dendrochronologically appropriate tree species. In this study, the potential for reconstruction of local paleoclimate was investigated using multi-century tree-ring chronologies developed from Picea morrisonicola (the endemic Taiwan Spruce). Significant correlations were found against the mean April-June diurnal temperature range (DTR) and against the mean July-September maximum temperature (Tmax). Both of these climate parameters were reconstructed based on the regression relationships.

In a related study, a new frequency decomposition method called empirical mode decomposition (EMD), one part of the Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT), was investigated as an alternative to standard methods of chronology generation in terms of climate signal. A noise assisted version of EMD called ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) was used to decompose the tree-ring time series into a series of quasi-periodic modes from high to low frequency. Consecutive modes were combined from high to low frequency and compared with the climate data. The combination with the most significant climate relationships was then used to reconstruct the climate parameters. As with the reconstructions using traditional methods of chronology generation, statistics from the reconstructions of DTR and Tmax also passed tests for model skill. The reconstruction statistics and variance explained were similar for both methods of chronology generation, with EEMD chronology having better results in the DTR reconstruction and the traditional chronology having better results in the Tmax reconstruction.

Adjusted latewood ring widths show significant (p<0.01) positive correlation against Alishan July-September Tmax. Linear regression of the Alishan Tmax on the tree-ring chronology produced a calibration model that accounted for 23% of the actual Tmax variance. This model was used to reconstruct the July-September Tmax back to A.D. 1636. The reconstruction shows warm periods during 1718-1726, 1908-1916, and 2002-2008. Evidence from comparisons with NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data indicates that the summer climate variability in Taiwan is regulated by processes associated with changes in the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH). In years with less precipitation the WPSH reduces the southwesterly monsoonal flow by extending further westward than in other years. This appears as an anomalous warm and dry summer accompanied with anti-cyclonic motion over the East China Sea. In addition, eight of the ten warmest summers (July-September Tmax) in central Taiwan occurred during El Niño years, indicating a link between Taiwan summer maximum temperatures and ENSO dynamics.

The earlywood mean chronology was calibrated against April-June DTR. A calibration model that accounted for 28% of the actual DTR variance was then produced to reconstruct the DTR. The increasing Tmin, which can be attributed to locally increased cloud cover, contributed to the reduction of DTR. The reconstructed DTR has a cycle of period 28 years, showing the variations in solar irradiance possibly due to cloudiness changes.

摘要 .........................................................................................................................................................VII
Abstract ...................................................................................................................................................IX
英文專有名詞縮寫表及其中文譯名 .............................................................................................XI
圖目錄 ....................................................................................................................................................XII
表目錄 ..................................................................................................................................................XVI
第一章、前言 ......................................................................................................................................1
1.1 研究背景 ................................................................................................................................1
1.2 研究目的 ................................................................................................................................3
1.3 古氣候代用指標—樹輪 ....................................................................................................5
1.4 臺灣的樹輪氣候學研究 ....................................................................................................5
第二章、樹木的生長與氣候 ..........................................................................................................8
2.1 樹輪的形成 ............................................................................................................................8
2.2 樹輪氣候學 ............................................................................................................................9
2.3 樹木生長與氣候反映 ......................................................................................................12
第三章、研究區域概述 ..................................................................................................................14
3.1 地理位置與環境 ................................................................................................................14
3.2 氣候與植群 ..........................................................................................................................15
3.3 研究樹種介紹 .....................................................................................................................16
3.4 氣象資料 ...............................................................................................................................16
3.4.1 氣象站資料 .................................................................................................................16
3.4.2 日較溫差 ......................................................................................................................18
3.4.3 再分析資料 .................................................................................................................20
3.4.4 ISCCP 雲量資料 ........................................................................................................21
3.5 水系與地質 ..........................................................................................................................21
3.6 環境擾動記錄 .....................................................................................................................22
第四章、研究方法 ...........................................................................................................................23
4.1 採樣與樣本前處理 ...........................................................................................................23
4.2 樹輪寬度測量與交互定年 .............................................................................................25
4.3 樹輪寬度年表建立 ...........................................................................................................30
4.3.1 利用 ARSTAN 建立年表 ......................................................................................30
4.3.1.1 標準化 ................................................................................................................30
4.3.1.2 樹輪年表建立 ..................................................................................................32
4.3.2 利用希爾伯特—黃轉換 (HHT) 法建立年表 .................................................35
4.3.2.1 經驗模態分解法 (EMD) ...............................................................................37
4.3.2.2 總體經驗模態分解法 (EEMD) ..................................................................39
4.3.2.3 IMF 分量的性質 .............................................................................................40
4.3.2.4 樹輪年表建立 ..................................................................................................40
4.4 氣候重建 ...............................................................................................................................41
4.4.1 反應函數 ......................................................................................................................41
4.4.2 校正與驗證 .................................................................................................................42
第五章、結果 ....................................................................................................................................44
5.1 輪寬年表 ...............................................................................................................................44
5.1.1 ARSTAN 建立之年表 ............................................................................................44
5.1.2 EEMD 法建立之年表 .............................................................................................50
5.1.2.1 早材年表 ............................................................................................................50
5.1.2.2 晚材年表 ............................................................................................................52
5.2 樹輪生長與氣候關係 ......................................................................................................54
5.3 暖季 ( 7-9月) 平均最高溫重建 .....................................................................................56
5.4 月平均日較溫差重建 ......................................................................................................61
第六章、討論 ....................................................................................................................................66
6.1 樹木生長與氣候關係 ......................................................................................................66
6.1.1 樹木生長的氣候反映 ..............................................................................................66
6.1.2 不同溫度變化幅度之影響 ....................................................................................66
6.1.3 不同樹齡對氣候的反映 .........................................................................................68
6.2 夏季平均最高溫變化 ......................................................................................................70
6.2.1 夏季平均最高溫與修正晚材反映 ......................................................................70
6.2.2 與其他樹輪年表比較 ..............................................................................................70
6.2.3 合成分析 ......................................................................................................................71
6.2.4 區域性雲量變化 .......................................................................................................75
6.2.5 ENSO 與 PDO ............................................................................................................76
6.3 日較溫差變化 .....................................................................................................................80
6.3.1 日較溫差變化原因 ..................................................................................................80
6.3.2 日較溫差與早材輪寬變化之關係 ......................................................................80
6.3.3 雲量與日照時數 .......................................................................................................81
6.3.4 全球黯化 (Global dimming) 現象 ......................................................................83
6.3.5 氣候/樹木生長關係分歧 ........................................................................................86
6.4 傳統方法與 HHT 之比較 ..............................................................................................88
6.4.1 重建結果 ......................................................................................................................88
6.4.2 氣候訊息 ......................................................................................................................89
第七章、結論 ....................................................................................................................................92
第八章、參考文獻 ...........................................................................................................................94
第九章、附錄 ..................................................................................................................................103
附錄 1 生長錐使用方法 ......................................................................................................103
附錄 2 交互定年檢驗軟體 COFECHA ..........................................................................104
附錄 3 ARSTAN 建立年表軟體 ......................................................................................109
附錄 4 Edrm 軟體：修改或重新編輯年份 ..................................................................110
附錄 5 合成年表之採樣立木資料 ...................................................................................111
附錄 6 未合成年表之採樣立木資料 ..............................................................................112
附錄 7 COFECHA 檢驗結果 ..............................................................................................113

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