臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究發展了一種關於輸配水系統之新分析模式，此模式結合了優選模式、最小切集法及窮舉模擬法，此模式演算後可找出輸配水系統中之關鍵管路，並分析輸配水系統之系統設施可靠度。首先，本研究依水資源調配情形建立一套全時域優選模式，其次，藉由窮舉法及最小切集法發展結合全時域優選模式以模擬及逐案優選之方式找出輸配水系統之關鍵輸配水管路。最後，在依據系統內之關鍵管路輔以管路使用年限計算輸配水系統中之系統設施可靠度。本研究之主要貢獻在於利用發展出之模式可定位出輸配水系統中之重要關鍵管路以避免水資源之供需調度發生嚴重問題；再者，可以分析計算輸配水系統中之系統設施考可靠度，本研究並將研究成果應用於新竹地區之輸配水系統中，模式分析結果良好且與實際輸配水系統情況甚為接近。本研究之成果可提供水利單位作為水資源調度分配及預算編列之重要依據及參考。

This study develops a new method to calculate the water distribution system’s mechanical reliability and locates crucial pipes by using the minimum cut-sets method、exhaustive enumeration method and an optimal allocation model. First, a full domain optimization model was established to analyze the water distribution system. Next, the minimum cut-sets method and exhaustive enumeration method were used to discover the water distribution system’s key pipes. At last, water distribution system’s mechanical reliability can be calculated. The major contributions are that we can use optimal allocation model to locate crucial pipelines in the water distribution whose failure will severely impair the source-demand connectivity. Besides, we can calculate water distribution system’s mechanical reliability. Thus we can offer these results for hydraulic construction funds consulting. The developed methodology is applied to a water distribution system in Hsin-Chu, Taiwan.

目 錄
口試委員會審定書 I
誌謝 II
中文摘要 III
英文摘要 IV
目錄 V
圖目錄 VII
表目錄 VIII

第一章　緒論 1
1.1 前言 1
1.2 研究動機 1
1.3 研究方法 2
1.4 論文架構 3
第二章　文獻回顧 4
2.1線性規劃 4
2.2最小切集法 6
2.3設施可靠度 6
2.4文獻探討與研究發展方向彙整 7
第三章　研究方法論 8
3.1 最佳化模式 9
3.1.1 目標函數 10
3.1.2 限制式 11
3.1.3模式特性探討 16
3.2窮舉法 17
3.3最小切集法 18
3.4設施可靠度 22
第四章　方法論應用 23
4.1 研究區域 23
4.1.1 區域水資源運用概況 23
4.1.2 水資源設施概述 25
4.2 基本資料蒐集與分析 27
4.2.1 水源設施水文資料 27
4.3 水源與自來水系統最佳化調配模擬 40
4.3.1 輸配水系統模式建立—頭前溪流域 40
4.3.2 輸配水系統模式建立—鳳山溪流域 44
4.4 新竹地區關鍵管路求解 47
4.5模式優選模擬結果 50
4.5.1新竹地區關鍵管路分析結果 51
4.5.2新竹地區輸配水系統之系統設施可靠度 52
4.6供水管路破壞率與系統設施可靠度之關係 52
4.6.1供水管路破壞率推估 52
4.6.2採用供水管路破壞率推估系統設施可靠度 54
第五章　結論與建議 55
5.1 結論 55
5.2 建議 56
參考文獻 58
符號說明 62
簡 歷 63

參 考 文 獻
1.Cullinane, M. J., 1989, ‘Determining availability and reliability for water distribution systems,’ Reliability analysis of water distribution systems, Mays, L. W., ed., ASCE, New York.
2.Crawley, P. and Dandy, G. C., 1993, ‘Optimal Operation of Multiple-Reservoir System’, J. Water Resour. Plng. and Mgmt., ASCE, 119(1), 1-7.
3.Dandy, G. C., Engelhardt, M., 2001, ‘Optimal Scheduling of Water Pipe Replacement Using Genetic Algorithms, ’ J. Water Resour. Plng. and Mgmt., 127(4), 214-223.
4.Giovanni, M. S, Paola, Z., 2008, ’Multiperiod Hypergraph Models for Water Systems Optimization,’ Journal of Water Resour Manage 22, 307-320.
5.Hobbs, B. F., 1985, ‘Reliability analysis of water system capacity,’ Hydraulics and hydrology in the small computer age, ASCE 1, New York. New Jersey, 341-346.
6.Hsu, N.-S. and Cheng, K.-W., 2002, ‘Network Flow Optimization Model for Basin Scale Water Supply Planning,’ J. Water Resour. Plng. and Mgmt., ASCE, 128(2), 102-112.
7.Kuczera, G., 1989, ‘Fast Multireservoir Multiperiod Linear Programing Models,’ Water Resources Research, 25(2), 169-176.
8.Keisler, A., Ormsbee, L., and Shaniir, U., 1990, ‘A methodology for least-cost design of invulnerable water distribution networks,’ Civ. Engrg. Sys., 7(1), 20-28.
9.Labadie J. W., 2004, ‘Optimal Operation of Multi reservoir Systems: State-of-the-Art Review,’ J. Water Resour. Plng. and Mgmt., ASCE, 130(2), 93-111.
10.Liu, D., Chen, X., Lou, Z., 2010, ’A Model for the Optimal Allocation of Water Resources in a Saltwater Intrusion Area：A case study in a pearl River Delta in China,’ Journal of Water Resour Manage, 24, 63-81.
11.Park, H., and Liebman, J. C., 1993, ‘Redundancy-constrained minimum-cost design of water-distribution nets,’ J. Water Resour. Plng. and Mgmt., ASCE, 119(1), 83-98.
12.Park, S., Jun, H., Kim B. J., Im, G. C., 2008, ’Modeling of Water Main Failure Rates Using the Log-linear ROCOF and the Power Law Process ,’ Journal of Water Resour Manage, 22, 1311-1324.
13. Reca, J., Martines , J, Gil, C., Banos , R. , 2008, ’Application of Several Meta-Heuristic Techniques to the Optimization of Real Looped Water Distribution Networks,’ Journal of Water Resour Manage, 22, 1367-1379.
14.Shamir, U., and Howard, C. D. D., 1981, ‘Water supply reliability theory,’ J. Am. Waterworks Assoc., 73, 379-384.
15.Shamir, U., and Howard, C. D. D., 1985, ‘Reliability and risk assessment for water supply systems,’ Proc., Spec. Conf. Comp. Applications in Water Resour., H. Tourno, ed., ASCE, New York, 1218-1228.
16.Su, Y.-C., Mays, L. W., Duan, N., and Lansey, K. E., 1987, ‘Reliability- based optimization model for water distribution systems,’ J. Hydr. Engrg., ASCE, 114(12), 1539-1556.
17.Sahoo, B., Lohani, A. K., Sahu, R. K., 2006, ’Fuzzy Multiobjective and Linear Programming Based Management Models for Optimal Land-Water-Crop System Planning,’ Journal of Water Resour Manage, 20, 931-948.
18.Tu, M. Y., 1996, Study on Surface Water Right By using optimal method, Ms. thesis, National Taiwan University.(in Chinese)
19.Tsai, J. X., 2003, Methodology and Application for a time step-by-step optimal method of multi-reservoir system with united operational simulated model, Ms. thesis, National Taiwan University.(in Chinese)
20.Tu, M.Y., Hsu, N.S., and Yeh, W.W-G., 2003, ‘Optimization of Reservoir Management and Operation with Hedging Rules,’ J. Water Resour. Plng. and Mgmt., ASCE, 129(2), 86-97.
21.Wagner, J. M., Shamir, U., and Marks, D. H., 1988, ‘Water distribution reliability: analytical methods,’ J. Water Resour. Plng. and Mgmt., ASCE, 114(3), 253-275.
22.Yang, S.-L., Hsu, N.-S., Louie, P. W.-F. and Yeh, W. W.-G., 1996, ‘Water Distribution Network Reliability: Connectivity Analysis,’ Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 2(2), 54-64.
23.Yang, S.-L., Hsu, N.-S., Louie, P. W.-F. and Yeh, W. W.-G., 1996, ’Water Distribution Network Reliability Stochastic Simulation,’ Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 2(2), 65-72.
24.Tung, C. P., S. Y. Hsu, C. M. Liu, and J. S. Li. 2003. ‘Applying Genetic Algorithm to Optimize Operation Rules for the LiYuTan Reservoir in Taiwan,’ Journal of American Water Resources Association, 39(3), 649~658.
25.Lee, J. J., C. S. Jang, C. W. Liu, C. P. Liang, S. W. Wang, ‘Determining the probability of arsenic in groundwater using a parsimonious model,’ Environmental Science & Technology.
26.Wu, M. Y. , Kuo, S. L. , Kuo, C. L., 2011 ’Optimal Design of Water Treatment Facilities Under Nonlinear Conditions with Uncertainty Based on Flexible Tolerance Concept,’ Environmental Engineering Science, 28(4), 275-282.
27.Yu, G. H., Chen, H. L. and Wen, W. C., 2002 ‘A Distribution-Free Method for Forcasting Non-Gaussian Time Series,’ Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 16 (2), 101-111.
28.林松青，吳瑞賢，陳世偉，2004，「雙標的水庫串聯系統最佳運轉機制之研究」，中國土木水利工程學刊，16(4)，593-607。
29.經濟部水利署，2004，「臺灣地區水資源總量管制機制規劃」。
30.經濟部水利署水利規劃試驗所，2004，提升台灣水資源台灣水資源運用效率之研究。
31.台灣省自來水股份有限公司，2004，台灣省自來水事業統計年報。
32.經濟部水利署水利規劃試驗所，2005，「北部地區水資源系統備用水源及管網之分析檢討」。
33.巨廷工程顧問股份有限公司，2004，「台灣地區水資源總量管制機制規劃—台灣地區水資源總量評估」。