臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

專案在進行排程規劃時，需要考慮執行過程中會產生許多不確定性因素，以便提高專案完工的可靠度。目前專案排程方法大多藉由計劃評核術(Program Evaluation and Review Technique )與要徑法(Critical Path Method)等方法進行排程。要徑法著重於時間成本權衡問題(Time-Cost Tradeoff Problem)，其作業時間為確定性，因此，無法在專案排程中考慮不確定性因素，而計劃評核術則著重於特定期限前完工機率，無法在專案排程中考慮減少不確定性因素的作業成本，因此將要徑法與計劃評核術結合，可成為同時考量作業時間與作業成本均為不確定性之專案排程方法。
本研究提出結合計劃評核術和要徑法來解決專案排程問題。首先以模擬技術和實驗設計作為開發一個可隨機趕工的時間成本權衡問題，並建構專案排程之可靠度模式，透過反應曲面法(Response surface methodology)，求解時間成本權衡問題，並計算出各個作業時間較短、成本較低，且滿足可靠度的最佳排程方案，提供排程規劃的一個建議解，且經由實例驗證後，證明可靠度應用在本研究中，可以在較短的時間內，有效地求得最佳解。

In this study, it will combine PERT and CPM to solve related problems. At first, it uses simulation techniques and design of experiment (DOE) to solve the time-cost tradeoff problem in developing a rationale for crashing stochastic networks and also develop a reliability of scheduling models. Simulation techniques are useful for analyzing stochastic effects with response surface methodology to study the tradeoffs among time, cost and reliability. Then, to determine the appropriate activities for crashing at minimal cost, including reliability which is needed to obtain optimal solutions. Finally, the results show that reliability can be integrated with simulation techniques and provide an efficient and practical means of optimal project schedules.

中文摘要 I
英文摘要 II
目 錄 III
圖 目 錄 V
表 目 錄 VII

第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與目的 1
1.2 文獻探討 2
1.3 章節內容與研究架構 4
第二章 理論基礎及背景 6
2.1 專案排程 6
2.1.1 甘特圖、要徑法與計劃評核術 6
2.1.2 時間成本權衡問題 7
2.1.3 數學規劃解法 8
2.2 反應曲面法 10
2.2.1 反應曲面法 10
2.2.2 二階反應曲面分析 11
2.2.3 Box-Behnken Dseign 12
2.3 模擬原理 13
2.3.1 二元常態分配原理 13
2.3.2 參數設計 16
2.4 完工時間可靠度與完工成本可靠度 16
第三章 範例描述 18
3.1 範例探討 18
3.2 完工時間可靠度與完工成本可靠度之假設 20
第四章 實驗結果與討論 22
4.1 完工時間之資料分析 22
4.2 完工成本之資料分析 26
4.3 完工時間可靠度之資料分析 30
4.4 完工成本可靠度之資料分析 34
4.5 完工時間與完工成本衡量 38
第五章 結論 42
參考文獻 44
附錄一 五因子之Box-Behnken Design實驗矩陣 47
作者簡介 48

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