臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本論文由兩個主題構成。第一章探討保險發展與經濟成長的長短期關係，以40個國家1981至2010年之年資料，運用合併平均群體估計法(pooled mean group estimation)，本文發現壽險與產險發展對於經濟成長有不同之長短期效果。針對完整樣本之分析，本文發現壽險對經濟成長有長期顯著之正面效果，但其短期效果並不顯著；產險則與壽險相反，對經濟成長具有短期之正效果，但長期效果則不顯著。在排除異常短期係數估計值之縮減樣本分析中，壽險的效果大致維持相同，但產險則有所變化，不管長期或短期效果皆不顯著，顯示完整樣本下產險的整體短期效果係受到少數特定國家的影響，這些結果在數個穩健度(robustness)測試下仍維持一致。針對個別國家之分析，結果顯示短期效果及長期均衡調整之速度因國家而異。在不同的所得水準及保險發展程度對保險的成長效果之影響分析中，結果顯示當國家之所得水準較低或壽險發展程度較低時，壽險發展對經濟成長有顯著之效果，但在高所得國家則不論產壽險其長短期效果皆不顯著。
在第二章，本文運用動態追蹤門檻模型(dynamic panel threshold model)，檢視與制度面有關之因素如何影響保險與經濟成長之關係。本文建立四個假設：類制度(quasi-institution)正面性(positivity)、類制度負面性(negativity)、類制度二元性(duality)、以及類制度無關性(neutrality)假設，並採用與政治環境、經濟環境、以及法律環境有關之多重衡量指標評估制度環境之健全性。實證結果顯示，對於壽險的經濟成長效果，在三個制度相關層面之各項指標變數皆呈現一致性之結果，主要支持類制度負面性假設。然而，制度環境對於產險的經濟成長效果之影響則較不一致，類制度正面性、類制度負面性及類制度無關性假設分別在不同指標得到支持，但同一層面下之各指標並未呈現一致性之結果，且多僅達到最低限度(marginal)之顯著水準。整體結果之意涵為，健全之制度環境不必然有促進壽險之經濟成長效果的功能，但不佳的制度環境卻會阻礙壽險的經濟成長效果，至於產險的經濟成長效果則受某些特定指標的影響。第三章針對未來可行研究方向提供一些建議。

This dissertation comprises two topics. In Chapter 1, I explore the short- and long-run relation between insurance development and economic growth for 40 countries between 1981 and 2010. Applying a pooled mean group estimation, I find that life and nonlife insurance have different short- and long-run effects on the growth. On a full sample analysis, life insurance exerts a significantly positive long-run effect on the growth, while its short-run effect is not significant. Nonlife insurance, in contrast, has a significantly positive short-run growth effect but no long-run effect. On a reduced sample analysis, the observation on life insurance is qualitatively similar, but the growth effect of nonlife insurance is no longer significant both in short and long run, suggesting that specific countries drive the overall effect in the full sample. The results pass a battery of robustness tests. The analysis on individual countries reveals that the short-run effect and adjustment speed toward the long-run equilibrium varies across countries. I also analyze if the level of income and insurance development makes any difference on the growth effect of insurance. The results show that the growth effect of life insurance is significant in non-high income countries and countries with low level of life insurance development, while the effect is not significant both for life and nonlife insurance in high income countries.
In Chapter 2, I employ the dynamic panel threshold model to investigate how institutional environments shape the impact of insurance development on economic growth. I conduct four hypotheses for possible intermediate effects of institutional environments on insurance-growth nexus: quasi-institution positivity, quasi-institution negativity, quasi-institution duality, and quasi-institution neutrality. I use multiple measures related to political, economic, and legal environments to evaluate the soundness of institutional environments. Empirical results show that the quasi-institution negativity hypothesis is supported for life insurance because the observation is consistent across all institution-related measures. The results in nonlife insurance are not as uniform as those in life insurance. The quasi-institution positivity, negativity, and neutrality are respectively supported in different institutional measures, and the coefficients in most cases are significant only at a marginal significance level. The overall findings suggest that a sound institutional environment does not necessarily benefit the growth effect of life insurance, but an unhealthy one does deter it and that the effect depends on specific measure in the case of nonlife insurance. In Chapter 3 I briefly introduce some directions for further research.

謝誌 i
摘要 ii
ABSTRACT iii
Chapter 1 Insurance Development and Economic Growth: Short-run and Long-run Effect 1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 Literature Review 6
1.2.1 Theoretical Foundation 7
1.2.2 Empirical Literature 14
1.3 Model Specification and Data 20
1.3.1 Model Specification and Estimation 20
1.3.2 Data 24
1.4 Empirical Results 25
1.4.1 Summary Statistics 25
1.4.2 Linear Model Analysis 27
1.4.3 Short- and Long-run Growth Effects of Insurance Development 30
1.4.4 Differences in Individual countries 34
1.4.5 Robustness Checks 38
1.4.6 Influence of the level of Income and Insurance Development 44
1.4.7 Further issues 47
1.5 Conclusion 56
Chapter 2 Insurance Development and Economic Growth: Relevance of Political, Economic and Legal Environments 59
2.1 Introduction 59
2.2 Literature Review and Hypotheses Development 62
2.2.1 Related literature 62
2.2.2 Hypotheses 65
2.3 Methodology and Data 67
2.3.1 Model specification and Estimation 67
2.3.2 Variables and Data 70
2.4 Empirical Results 73
2.4.1 The mediating effect of institutional environments on insurance-growth relationship 73
2.4.2 Dynamic threshold effect of institutional environments 78
2.4.3 Robustness check — Institutional environments as a regressor 84
2.4.4 Discussions and Implications 88
2.5 Conclusion 89
Chapter 3 Further Research and Feasible Direction 92
Bibliography 95
Appendix 101
Appendix 1-A Insurance-Growth Nexus — Demand-following view 101
Appendix 1-B Insurance-Growth Nexus — Supply-leading view 104
Appendix 1-C Variables Definition and Data Sources in Chapter 1 106
Appendix 1-D Countries listed and sample period in Chapter 1 107
Appendix 2-A Variables Definition and Data Sources in Chapter 2 108
Appendix 2-B Countries listed and sample period in Chapter 2 109

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