臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

2007年7月發生的全球性金融危機，造成許多公司倒閉。倒閉原因可能來自公司融資政策、會計衡量基礎變動或兩者互動的影響。基此，本研究目的以探討金融加速器理論與會計加速器理論個別對企業價值之影響，及兩者交互作用對企業價值之影響。我國會計準則仍未完全採公平價值為衡量基礎，故實證資料不足，但瞭解金融加速器與會計加速器交互作用之影響，是學界與實務界共同的期待，因此本研究採用以系統動態學為模擬方法論，選擇兩家具代表性之企業為個案。模擬結果發現：兩種加速器都會影響企業價值，無論在繁榮或衰退期金融加速器對企業價值均呈現負面影響，表示企業不宜採高度舉債之融資政策。而會計加速器在兩種經濟周期均會增加兩家個案公司企業價值。另外發現，金融加速器對企業價值之影響比會計加速器大。

In July, 2007 the global occurs financial crisis, causes firms faced bankruptcy. The bankrupt reason possibly comes from the firm’s finance policy or accounting standard change. This research explores that the financial accelerator and accounting accelerator isolated and both on the effect of the firm value. Fair value accounting completely had still not implemented in Taiwan, the actual data is insufficient, but must understand the simultaneous impacts of both theories, therefore this research uses the system dynamics as a methodology and chooses two firms as the cases. The findings: Two kinds of accelerators affect the firm value, the financial accelerator has the negative effect on firm value, indicated that the firm is not taken highly leverage policy. Moreover, in accounting accelerator aspect, firm value has the positive effect. To the impact on the firm value, the financial accelerator is more significant than accounting accelerator.

目錄
第壹章 緒論 ................................................................................................................1
第一節 研究背景..........................................................................................................1
第二節 研究動機..........................................................................................................3
第三節 研究目的..........................................................................................................4
第四節 研究流程..........................................................................................................4

第貳章 文獻探討...........................................................................................6
第一節 資本結構理論........................................................................6
第二節 金融加速器理論..............................................................................................8
第三節 會計加速器理論............................................................................................12
第四節 未認列無形資產............................................................................................14
第五節 系統動態學....................................................................................................16

第參章 系統動態學模型............................................................................................21
第一節 個案與資料蒐集............................................................................................21
第二節 觀念架構........................................................................................................24
第三節 動態模型建構................................................................................................28
第四節 模型效度檢測................................................................................................35

第肆章 政策情境模擬與結果分析............................................................................40
第一節 基本模擬與結果............................................................................................40
第二節 政策情境設計................................................................................................48
第三節 模擬結果與討論............................................................................................53

第伍章 結論與建議....................................................................................................72
第一節 結論................................................................................................................72
第二節 學術與管理意涵............................................................................................73
第三節 研究限制........................................................................................................74
第四節 建議................................................................................................................74
文獻參考......................................................................................................................75

圖目錄
圖1-1 研究流程圖....................................................................................................5
圖2-1 建模步驟的反覆循環..................................................................................18
圖2-2 資料、歷史與系統運作之環路關係..........................................................18
圖3-1 台灣的半導體產業鏈..................................................................................22
圖3-2 觀念架構圖..................................................................................................24
圖3-3 企業價值之模型邊界圖..............................................................................26
圖3-4 企業價值之因果環路圖..............................................................................27
圖3-5 資產之動態模型..........................................................................................30
圖3-6 舉債與股東權益之動態模型......................................................................31
圖3-7 淨利之動態模型..........................................................................................32
圖3-8 經濟變動與生產情形之動態模型..............................................................33
圖3-9 企業價值與會計衡量基礎變動之動態模型..............................................34
圖4-1 T公司與M公司總資產比較.....................................................................40
圖4-2 T公司總資產...............................................................................................41
圖4-3 M公司總資產..............................................................................................41
圖4-4 T公司與M公司淨利比較.........................................................................42
圖4-5 T公司淨利...................................................................................................42
圖4-6 M公司淨利..................................................................................................43
圖4-7 T公司資本結構...........................................................................................44
圖4-8 M公司資本結構..........................................................................................44
圖4-9 T公司與M公司企業價值比較..................................................................45
圖4-10 T公司經營政策...........................................................................................46
圖4-11 M公司經營政策..........................................................................................47
圖4-12 T公司企業價值（基本情境）...................................................................56
圖4-13 M資產（基本情境）..................................................................................56
圖4-14 T公司企業價值（基本情境）...................................................................56
圖4-15 M公司資產（基本情境）............................................................................57
圖4-16 T公司企業價值（繁榮期情境）..................................................................62
圖4-17 T公司資產（繁榮期情境）.......................................................................62
圖4-18 M公司企業價值（繁榮期情境）.................................................................62
圖4-19 M公司資產（繁榮期情境）.......................................................................63
圖4-20 T公司企業價值（衰退期情境）..................................................................67
圖4-21 T公司資產（衰退期情境）.......................................................................68
圖4-22 M公司企業價值（衰退期情境）.................................................................68
圖4-23 M公司資產（衰退期情境）.......................................................................68

表目錄
表3-1 T公司與M公司之參數驗證表.................................................................36
表3-2 T公司與M公司之成對檢定表.................................................................39
表4-1 T公司與M公司總資產比較.....................................................................41
表4-2 T公司與M公司淨利比較.........................................................................43
表4-3 T公司與M公司資本結構比較.................................................................44
表4-4 T公司與M公司企業價值比較.................................................................45
表4-5 T公司與M公司長期償債能力比較….....................................................46
表4-6 經濟成長指數與毛利……………….….....................................................47
表4-7 模擬政策之負債比率……………….….....................................................51
表4-8 政策情境設計..............................................................................................52
表4-9 T公司政策情境模擬結果（企業價值）...................................................57
表4-10 T公司政策情境模擬結果（資產）...........................................................57
表4-11 M公司政策情境模擬結果（企業價值）...................................................58
表4-12 M公司政策情境模擬結果（資產）...... ....................................................58
表4-13 企業價值比較（基本情境）......................................................................58
表4-14 企業價值波動性比較（基本情境）..........................................................58
表4-15 資產比較（基本情境）..............................................................................59
表4-16 資產波動性比較（基本情境）..................................................................59
表4-17 T公司政策情境模擬結果（企業價值）...................................................63
表4-18 T公司政策情境模擬結果（資產）...........................................................63
表4-19 M公司政策情境模擬結果（企業價值）...................................................64
表4-20 M公司政策情境模擬結果（資產）...........................................................64
表4-21 企業價值比較（繁榮退期情境）..............................................................64
表4-22 企業價值波動性比較（繁榮期情境）......................................................64
表4-23 資產比較（繁榮期情境）..........................................................................64
表4-24 資產波動性比較（繁榮期情境）..............................................................65
表4-25 T公司政策情境模擬結果（企業價值）...................................................69
表4-26 T公司政策情境模擬結果（資產）...........................................................69
表4-27 M公司政策情境模擬結果（企業價值）...................................................69
表4-28 M公司政策情境模擬結果（資產）...........................................................70
表4-29 企業價值比較（衰退期情境）..................................................................70
表4-30 企業價值波動性比較（衰退期情境）.......................................................70
表4-31 資產比較（衰退期情境）...........................................................................70
表4-32 資產波動性比較（衰退期情境）...............................................................70
表4-33 政策分析模擬結果......................................................................................71

中文文獻：
謝長宏，1980，系統動態學－理論、方法與應用，華泰文化事業股份有限公司
謝長宏，1999，系統概論，華泰文化事業股份有限公司
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