臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本文運用實質選擇與賽局理論推導資訊服務公司之投資決策數理模型。首先先評估單一廠商投資決策，針對一網路資訊服務公司投資在免費軟體的效用做評估，利用實質選擇權法建構成本與收益之模型，導入實際及潛在企業價值以衡量投資行為所產生之財務效益，達成增加網路使用率提升的投資升級決策點、或決定撤資點之數理模型建構。其次，研究當資訊市場中存在兩相異廠商之競爭行為，建構跨國資訊服務公司在具差異市場下，投資不同服務水準產生之財務效益，導入實際及潛在價值綜效評估企業策略價值以真實衡量投資行為。本文以賽局理論分析兩類型廠商：網路資訊服務公司(例：Google)與傳統資訊服務公司(例：Microsoft)在全球不同的網路市場區塊「高度網路使用區」與「低度網路使用區」之投(撤)資決策，設廠商服務水準具隨機變動的特性，建構兩廠商在競爭狀態下個別之利潤模型，評估廠商之現金流量；且將廠商策略改變存在之潛在價值納入考量，利用此模型求算出資訊公司最適服務水準，綜合評估各階段之最適升級決策點，以供跨國資訊公司作出網路市場投資之最適門檻值分析，以利在最適時點下進行投資升級之參考依據。

This study utilizes the real options approach and game theory to construct a mathematical decision-making model of investing in the information market of internet information service firms. At first, it assumes that there is a single firm in the market and evaluates the financial effect when this single firm provides free software to its’ consumers; subsequently, it sets up a model of the cost and revenue function to estimate the investment behavior. In the second part, this study assumes there are two competitive firms and discusses the competition relationship. Game theory is utilized to analyze the revenues of two types of internet information service firms. Besides, the transnational information service market is differentiated from two domains- high-use and low-use of the information service. This study assumes that the service level is following geometric Brownian motion, constructs the cost and revenue function to evaluate the cash flow, and combines the potential value of the firm’s strategy changeover. This model not only evaluates the optimal service level and timing of investment, but also provides internet service firms in estimating their investing decisions.

Acknowledgements I
Chinese Abstract II
Abstract III
Table of Contents IV
List of Tables VI
List of Figures VIII
List of Notations IX

CHAPTER Ⅰ INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Research Background and Motivation 1
1.2 Research Problems and Objective 4
1.3 Research Limitations 7
1.4 Research Structure and Outline 7

CHAPTER Ⅱ LITERATURE REVIEW 11
2.1 Information Technology and Information Service 11
2.2 Real Options Approach 14
2.3 Game Theory and Game Options 17

CHAPTER Ⅲ THE MODEL CONSTRUCTION 23
3.1 Model 1 Introductions and Construction 23
3.1.1 Model 1 Introductions 23
3.1.2 Evaluation of Firm Values of Different Stages 25
3.1.3 Decision-making Threshold of Model 1 28
Content Page
3.2 Model 2 Introductions and Construction 30
3.2.1 Model 2 Introductions 30
3.2.2 Game Options and Analysis of Market Portion 34
3.2.3 Model 2 Generalization 36
3.2.4 Evaluation of Firm Values of Different Strategies 36
3.2.5 Decision-making Threshold of the Internet Service Firm 43
3.2.6 Decision-making Threshold of the Traditional Service Firm 44
CHAPTER Ⅳ NUMERICAL ANALYSIS AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 47
4.1 Numerical Example of Model 1: Single Firm Decision-making 47
4.2 Sensitivity Analysis of Model 1: Single Firm Decision-making 48
4.3 Numerical Example of Model 2: Two Competitive Firms 55
4.4 Sensitivity Analysis of Model 2: Two Competitive Firms 56

CHAPTER V CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 61
5.1 Conclusions 61
5.2 Recommendations 63

References 65

1.Alvarez, L. H. R. and Stenbacka, R., “Adoption of uncertain multi-stage technology projects: a real options approach,” Journal of Mathematical Economics, Vol. 35, 2001, pp. 71-97.
2.Angelou, G. N. and Economides, A. A., “A compound real option and AHP methodology for evaluating ICT business alternatives,” Telematics and Informatics, 2008, article in press.
3.Balasubramanian, P., Kulatilaka, N., and Storck, J., “Managing information technology investments using a real-options approach,” Journal of Strategic Information Systems, Vol. 9, 2000, pp. 39-62.
4.Barco, R., Lazaro, P., Wille, V., Diez, L., and Patel, S., “Knowledge acquisition for diagnosis model in wireless networks,” Expert Systems with Applications, 2008, article in press.
5.Botteron, P., Chesney, M., and Gibson-Asner, R., “Analyzing firms’ strategic investment decisions in a real options’ framework,” Int. Fin. Markets, Inst. and Money, Vol. 13, 2003, pp. 451-479.
6.Buckley, A., Tse, K., Rijken, H. and Eijgenhuijsen, H., “Stock Market Valuation with Real Options: lessons from Netscape,” European Management Journal, Vol. 20, 2002, pp. 512-526.
7.Campbell, J. A., “Real options analysis of the timing of IS investment decisions,” Information & Management, Vol. 39, 2002, pp. 337-344.
8.Chen, D. N., Jeng, B., Lee, W. P., and Chuang, C.H., “An agent-based model for consumer-to-business electronic commerce,” Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 34, 2008, pp. 469-481.
9.Courchane, M., Nickerson D., and Sullivan R., “Investment in internet banking as a real option: theory and tests,” Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Vol. 12, 2002, pp. 347-363.
10.Dasgupta, A., “Coordination and delay in global games,” Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 134, 2007, pp. 195-225.
11.Dixit, A. K. and Pindyck, R. S., Investment under Uncertainty, New Jersey, Princeton University Press, 1994.
12.Doraszelski, U.,” The net present value method versus the option value of waiting: A note on Farzin, Huisman and Kort (1998),” Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, Vol. 25, 2001, pp. 1109-1115.
13.Fontes, D. B. M. M., “Fixed versus flexible production systems: A real options analysis,” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 188, 2008, pp. 169-184.
14.Harmantzis, F. C. and Tanguturi, V. P., “Investment decisions in the wireless industry applying real options,” Telecommunications Policy, Vol. 31, 2007, pp. 107-123.
15.Hu, Y.C., “Fuzzy multiple-criteria decision making in the determination of critical criteria for assessing service quality of travel websites,” Expert Systems with Applications, 2008, article in press.
16.Isik, M., Coble, K.H., Hudson, D., and House, L.O., “A model of entry-exit decisions and capacity choice under demand uncertainty,” Agricultural Economics, Vol. 28, 2003, pp. 215–224.
17.Ito, K., “On Stochastic Differential Equation,” Memories American Mathematical Society, Vol. 4, 1951, pp. 1-51.
18.Jackson, C. and Pascual, R., “Optimal maintenance service contract negotiation with aging equipment,” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 189, 2008, 387-398.
19.Khansa, L. and Liginlal, D., “Valuing the flexibility of investing in security process innovations,” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 192, 2009, pp. 216-235.
20.Kim, H. J., Weiss, M. B. H. and Morel, B., “Real options and technology management: Assessing technology migration options in wireless industry,” Telematics and Informatics, Vol. 26, 2009, pp. 180-192.
21.Kong, J. J. and Kwok, Y. K., “Real options in strategic investment games between two asymmetric firms,” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 181, 2007, pp. 967-985.
22.Kuno, J. M. H. and Peter, M. K., “Strategic technology adoption taking into account future technological improvements: A real options approach,” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 159, 2004, pp. 705-728.
23.Lee, J. K., Lee, J. H., and Sohn, S. Y., “Designing a business model for the content service of portable multimedia players,” Expert Systems with Applications, 2008, article in press.
24.Li, S. T., Shue, L. Y., and Lee, S. F., “Business intelligence approach to supporting strategy-making of ISP service management,” Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 35, 2008, pp. 739-754.
25.Lin, C. T., Lin, T. T., and Yeh, L.C., “The Entry/exit Real Options Model for Internet Securities Trading Business.” Journal of Economics and Business, Vol. 57, 2005, pp. 61-74.
26.Lin, C. Y. C., “The investment timing game in petroleum production: An econometric model,” Physica A, Vol. 355, 2005, pp. 62-68.
27.Miaoa, J. and Wang, N., “Investment, consumption, and hedging under incomplete markets,” Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 86, 2007, pp. 608-642.
28.Moretto, M., “Competition and irreversible investments under uncertainty,” Information Economics and Policy, Vol. 20, 2008, pp. 75-88.
29.Murthy, D.N.P. and Asgharizadeh, E., “Optimal decision making in a maintenance service operation,” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 116, 1999, pp. 259-273.
30.Murto, P., Nasakkala, E. and Keppo J., “Timing of investments in oligopoly under uncertainty: A framework for numerical analysis,” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 157, 2004, pp. 486-500.
31.Nishihara, M. and Fukushima, M., “Evaluation of firm’s loss due to incomplete information in real investment decision,” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 188, 2008, pp. 569-585.
32.OTAKA, M. and YOSHIDA, T., “Study on option pricing in an incomplete market with stochastic volatility based on risk premium analysis,” Mathematical and Computer Modelling, Vol. 38, 2003, pp. 1399-1408.
33.Ramani, S. V., “Technology cooperation between firms of developed and less-developed countries,” Economics Letters, Vol. 68, 2000, pp. 203-209.
34.Roques,F. A. and Savva, N., “Investment under uncertainty with price ceilings in oligopolies,” Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, Vol. 33, 2009, pp. 507-524.
35.Rouskas, A. N., Kikilis, A. A., and Ratsiatos, S. S., “A game theoretical formulation of integrated admission control and pricing in wireless networks,” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 191, 2008, pp. 1175-1188.
36.Sen, C. G., Baracli, H., Sen, S., and Basligil, H., “An integrated decision support system dealing with qualitative and quantitative objectives for enterprise software selection,” Expert Systems with Applications, 2008, article in press.
37.Shackleton, M.B., Tsekrekos, A.E. and Wojakowski, R., “Strategic entry and market leadership in a two-player real options game,” Journal of Banking & Finance, Vol. 28, 2004, pp. 179-201.
38.Smit, H. T. J. and Trigeorgis, L., “Real options and games: Competition, alliances and other applications of valuation and stra tegy,” Review of Financial Economics, Vol.15, 2006, pp. 95-112.
39.Smit, H. T. J. and Trigeorgis, L., “Strategic Options and Games in Analysing Dynamic Technology Investments,” Long Range Planning, Vol. 40, 2007, pp. 84-114.
40.Telang, R. & Mukhopadhyay, T., “Drivers of Web Portal Use,” Electronic Commerce Research and Applications, Vol. 4, 2005, pp. 46-62.
41.Tsai, W. H., and Hung, S. J., “Dynamic pricing and revenue management process in Internet retailing under uncertainty: An integrated real options approach,” Omega, Vol. 37, 2009, pp. 471-481.
42.Verbeeten, F. H. M, “Do organizations adopt sophisticated capital budgeting practices to deal with uncertainty in the investment decision? A research note,” Management Accounting Research, Vol. 17, 2006, pp. 106-120.
43.Verhoef C., “Quantifying the value of IT-investments,” Science o f Computer Programming, Vol. 56, 2005, pp. 315-342.
44.Wickart, M. and Madlener, R. “Optimal technology choice and investment timing: A stochastic model of industrial cogeneration vs. heat-only production.” Energy Economics, Vol. 29, 2007, pp. 934-952.
45.Wood, C. C. and Parker, D. B., “Why ROI and similar financial tools are not advisable for evaluating the merits of security projects,” Computer Fraud & Security, Vol. 2004, 2004, pp. 8-10.
46.Wu, D. J., Kleindorfer, P. R., and Sun., Y., “Optimal capacity expansion in the presence of capacity options, ”Decision Support Systems, Vol. 40, 2005, pp. 553- 561.
47.Wu, L. C. and Ong, C. S., “Management of information technology investment: A framework based on a Real Options and Mean-Variance theory perspective,” Technovation, Vol. 28, 2008, pp. 122-134.
48.Yeo, K.T. and Qiu, F., “The value of management flexibility-a real option approach to investment evaluation,” International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 21, 2003, pp. 243-250.
49.Yuan, H. C., “Simulation-optimization mechanism for expansion strategy using real option theory” Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 36, 2009, pp. 829-837.