臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

過去探討高速公路車流對事故發生之影響的相關研究，即使可證實在某些車流狀態下，具有較高的事故風險，但巨觀之車流資訊並無法用以解釋實際之車輛互動行為與事故發生過程，此外過去之研究大多致力於找出與事故相關之影響因素，卻鮮少對於事故發生過程中不同因素之連結與在時間上的演變關係進行研究。自然駕駛研究(Naturalistic Driving Study)提供了絕佳的機會能以更微觀及更多不同面相了解事故與近似事故(Near Crash)的發生，本研究運用NDS資料分類出行經不同車流狀態時的行車動態，並提出利用序列式結構之模型連結行車動態與其他因素在事故發生過程不同階段中的影響。研究結果發現高速公路追撞事故發生的過程與機制是在不同的行車動態情況下，因為容易觸發不同的車輛行為例如前車減速或變換車道，而在此同時當駕駛受到其他因素例如分心的影響時，感知到該情況的時間便會增加，因而可能反應不及進而造成事故之發生。

According to the findings of previous research, there are relations between traffic flow and crash occurrences on freeway However, the actual behaviors and how crashes happened under different traffic state cannot be clearly verified and explained.
Previous studies have indicated many factors are associated with rear-end crash risk or freeway crash, but the connections between factors and the contribution to the progression of a freeway rear-end crash are scarcely been discussed. Naturalistic Driving Study provides a great opportunity to better understand the causality of crash and near crash. This study utilize NDS data to define behavioral-based microscopic traffic states, then develop a sequential model to evaluate the impacts of traffic states and other factors on the progression of a crash.The model results shows that the mechanism of a crash happened is that under different traffic states, different driving behaviors(events) are more likely to happen(for instance, vehicle ahead decelerating versus other vehicle lane change).When the event trigger, if at the same time the driver is distracted , driver’s perception time will be increased, which may finally causing the driver not able to react in time, eventually evolving into a crash.

中文摘要 …………………………………………………………………………… I
英文摘要 ………………………………………………………………………… II
誌謝 ……………………………………………………………………… III
目錄 ………………………………………………………………………… IV
圖目錄 ………………………………………………………………………… V
表目錄 ………………………………………………………………………… VI
第一章 緒論 ……………………………………………………………………1
1.1研究背景與動機 ……………………………………………………………1
1.2研究目的 ……………………………………………………………………3
1.3研究範圍與對象 ……………………………………………………………………3
1.4研究架構與流程 ……………………………………………………………………4
第二章 文獻回顧 ……………………………………………………………………6
2.1高速公路追撞事故影響因素 …………………………………………6
2.2高速公路車流狀態與事故發生率…………………………………………7
2.3自然駕駛研究分析…………………………………………………………………… 8
2.4風險指標 ……………………………………………………………………9
第三章 研究方法 …………………………………………………………………11
3.1事故過程影響因素分析……………………………………………………………11
3.2研究模型 ……………………………………………………………………13
第四章 資料介紹與整理……………………………………………………………………17
4.1資料介紹 ……………………………………………………………………17
4.2資料蒐集與項目 ……………………………………………………………………19
4.3資料處理 ……………………………………………………………………21
4.3.1時間序列資料處理……………………………………………………………………21
4.3.2事件屬性資料處理……………………………………………………………………29
第五章 研究結果與分析 ……………………………………………………………………31
5.1行車動態分類結果 ……………………………………………………………………31
5.2模型結果與分析 ……………………………………………………………………33
5.2.1模型比較 ……………………………………………………………………35
5.2.2單層結構模型 ……………………………………………………………………39
5.2.3序列式結構模型 ……………………………………………………………………46
第六章 結論與建議 ……………………………………………………………………54
6.1結論與研究應用 ……………………………………………………………………54
6.2建議 ……………………………………………………………………55
參考文獻 ……………………………………………………………………57
簡 歷 ………………………………………………………………………… 60

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