臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

隨著全球暖化與氣候變遷影響，極端降雨事件未來可能成為常態，重大災害將更加頻繁。每逢颱風、豪雨等降雨季節期間，對於極端降雨常會誘發較嚴重之深層崩塌坡地災害。分析近二十年來臺灣各地區致災性豪雨降雨資料，發現邊坡災害之成因多是「連續降雨過多」或「短延時雨量過強」所致。以輕度變質之板岩為例，其構成邊坡板岩材料抗侵蝕能力相較於泥岩或頁岩材料為高，惟板岩極易沿其葉理方向裂開，轉為細碎薄片狀之面狀構造，當板岩劈理受邊坡長時間重力及風化作用後，其材料將逐漸弱化而造成潛變(creep)行為，即板岩邊坡變形過程中，亦會發展節理裂隙，促使降雨入滲引致地下水位抬升岩屑崩滑可能性增加。
本研究選用深層崩塌高風險區之臺中市梨山區松茂崩塌地與臺東縣金峰鄉新興崩塌地二個同屬板岩邊坡區域，利用現地降雨與地下水位變動之監測資料，以數值分析軟體SEEP/W模組模擬降雨引致地下水位抬升關係，再利用SLOPE/W模組針對已知滑動面之地下水位抬升與邊坡穩定之關係。為因應極端氣候造成降雨回歸周期的改變，本研究應用前峰型、中峰型、後峰型、平均型等設計雨型，對二處邊坡進行模擬分析，嘗試建立降雨引致邊坡壞預警系統。經模擬分析及驗證後提出降雨延時與累積降雨量之關係及最高地下水位累積降雨量與水位抬升高度之關係兩種模式，做為評估之基準，相關研究成果如下：(一) 降雨延時(X)與累積降雨量(Y)之關係：松茂崩塌地可得到F.S.=1.05時上界為Y=-7.221*X+1844.052與下界Y=-7.221*X+1630滑動面達臨界狀態；新興崩塌地可得到F.S.=1.0時Y=0.35*X+371.98與F.S.=1.05時Y=0.021*X+143.56滑動面之臨界狀態。(二)最高地下水位累積降雨量(X)與水位抬升高度(Y)之關係：松茂崩塌地可得之關係式為Y=0.00387*X，且當Y=3m，FS=1.05、Y=6m，FS=1.0；於新興崩塌地之關係式為Y=0.00789*X，且當Y=1.0m，FS=1.05、Y=3.87m，FS=1.0。

With global warming and climate change issues, extreme rainfall events in the future may become the normal, causing severe disaster events will be more frequent. During the rainy season such as typhoon and heavy rain, severe rainfall often induces more serious slope disasters. Analysis of the devastating heavy rainfall in Taiwan in the past two decades, the occurrence of slope disasters is mostly caused by "excessive continuous rainfall" or "short-duration rainfall". For mild metamorphic slate, its erosion resistance is higher than that of mud or shale. However, the slate is easily split along its cleavage direction and turned into a finely- cut sheet. When subjected to long-term gravity and weathering, the material of shale will gradually become weaken and turn into creep. That is, during the deformation process of slate slope, joint fissures will gradually grow out. When the rainfall infiltration leads to groundwater level rise, the possibility of rock debris collapse will increase.
In this study, high- risk areas with deep collapse were selected for analysis, taking Songmao Landslide area in Lishan District and Sinsing Landslide area in Jinfeng Township, Taitung County as examples. To simulate groundwater level rise caused by rainfall, this study conducted SEEP/W module of GeoStudio numerical software. The groundwater level monitoring data will be used for verification. Then, the SLOPE/W module of GeoStudio numerical software is used for slope stability analysis. Exploring the relationship between groundwater level rise and safety factor of slope is one of the main task in this study.
The uncertainty of rainfall caused by extreme weather is researched herein. In this study, the design of rainfall patterns such as advanced, intermediated, delayed and uniform rainfalls models were simulated. This study tried to establish a deep- seated landslide disaster warning system. After simulation analysis and verification, the relationship between rainfall duration and accumulated rainfall and the relationship between the maximum groundwater level cumulative rainfall and water level elevation were proposed as the evaluation criteria. The relevant research results are as follows: (1) Relationship between rainfall duration (X) and cumulative rainfall (Y): When FS=1.05 of Songmao Landslide area, the upper bound is Y=-7.221*X+1844.052, and the lower bound Y=-7.221 *X+1630. The FS=1.0 of Sinsing Landslide area, Y=0.35*X+371.98; when FS=1.05, Y=0.021*X+143.56. (2) Relationship between cumulative rainfall at the highest groundwater level (X) and rise of groundwater level (Y): In Songmao Landslide area, the relationship of cumulative rainfall at the highest groundwater level and rise of groundwater level is Y=0.00387*X; and when Y=3m, FS=1.05; Y=6m, FS=1.0. In Sinsing Landslide area, the relationship is Y=0.00789*X; and when Y=1.0m, FS=1.05; Y=3.87m, FS=1.0.

摘要 I
Abstract II
致謝 IV
目錄 V
圖目錄 VII
表目錄 XI
第一章 緒論 1
1-1 前言 1
1-2 研究動機與目的 4
1-3 研究方法 5
第二章 文獻回顧 7
2-1 深層崩塌 7
2-2 邊坡破壞與降雨之相關研究 10
2-3 邊坡災害降雨警戒管理值 16
2-4 Geo-Studio程式介紹 23
2-4.1 SEEP/W模組 23
2-4.2 SLOPE/W 24
2-5 不飽和土壤 27
2-5.1 不飽和土壤基質吸力 28
2-5.2 土壤水分特徵曲線 30
第三章 板岩區案例概況 33
3-1 臺灣板岩區工程特性 33
3-2 極端降雨設計雨型 39
3-3 調查案例概況 47
3-3.1 臺中市和平區松茂地區之潛在大規模崩坍地 47
3-3.2 臺東縣金峰鄉新興村之潛在大規模崩塌地 54
第四章 研究案例分析 61
4-1 松茂崩塌地 61
4-1.1 數值模型剖面建立與邊界條件設定 61
4-1.2 降雨引致地下水位變動之滲流分析 63
4-1.3 降雨引致地引致邊坡穩定耦合分析 66
4-1.4 設計雨型於邊坡地滑探討 71
4-2 新興崩塌地 77
4-2.1 數值模型剖面建立與邊界條件設定 77
4-2.2 降雨引致地下水位抬升與洩降之滲流分析 77
4-2.3 降雨引致地引致邊坡穩定耦合分析 80
4-2.4 設計雨型於邊坡地滑探討 85
4-3 板岩邊坡破壞管理值 91
4-3.1 松茂崩塌地 92
4-3.2 新興崩塌地 97
第五章 結論與建議 106
5-1 結論 106
5-2 建議 107
參考文獻 108

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