跳到主要內容

臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

(216.73.216.172) 您好!臺灣時間:2025/09/10 07:14
字體大小: 字級放大   字級縮小   預設字形  
回查詢結果 :::

詳目顯示

: 
twitterline
研究生:李耿誌
研究生(外文):Lee, Gengjhih
論文名稱(外文):An Analysis Of Business Cycle Of U.S. Gaming Industry
指導教授:陳明祥陳明祥引用關係
指導教授(外文):Chen, Minghsiang
口試委員:鎮明常陳乃維蘇宏仁
口試委員(外文):Cheng, MingchangChen, NaiweiSu, Hungjen
口試日期:2011-05-26
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中正大學
系所名稱:財務金融研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:財務金融學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2011
畢業學年度:99
語文別:英文
論文頁數:37
中文關鍵詞:景氣循環馬可夫轉換模型美國博弈產業
外文關鍵詞:Business cycleMarkov switching modelU.S. gaming industry
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:310
  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:7
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:0
This study applies a Markov switching model to analyze the business cycle of U.S. gaming industry using the quarterly data of total US casino and gaming revenue over the period from the third quarter in 1981 to the third quarter in 2009. The total casino and gaming revenue consists of total casino revenue and total revenue of gambling services. Test results show that the expected duration of low-growth state is 21.32 quarters and the expected duration of high-growth state is 6.32 quarters. Empirical result provides useful information for government tourism policymakers and tourist hotel managers.
1. Introduction 1

2. Literature review 5
2.1. Gaming industry 5
2.2. The Markov switching model 7

3. Data and Methodology 9
3.1. Data description 9
3.2. The Markov switching model 10

4. Estimation and specification testing of the Markov switching model 14
4.1. The U.S. gaming industry cycle 14
4.2. Specification test 16

5. Conclusions and Policy implication 18

References 22



American Gaming Association. (2008). State of the states: The AGA survey of
casino entertainment. Retrieved March 3, 2011 from http://www.
americangaming.org.

American Gaming Association. (2009). State of the states: The AGA survey of
casino entertainment. Retrieved March 3, 2011 from http://www.
americangaming.org.

American Gaming Association. (2010). State of the states: The AGA survey of
casino entertainment. Retrieved March 3, 2011 from http://www.
americangaming.org.

American Gaming Association. (2011). State of the states: The AGA survey of
casino entertainment. Retrieved March 3, 2011 from http://www.
americangaming.org.

Archival Federal Reserve Economic Data. (2010). Real total gross domestic product
by state for Nevada. Retrieved May 1, 2011 from http://alfred.stlouisfed.org/
series?seid=NVRGSP&rid=140.

Beveridge, S., & Nelson, C. (1981). A new approach to decompositions of
economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the ‘Business Cycle’. Journal of Monetary Economics, 7, 151-174.

Casino Enterprise Management. (2011). PWC’s global gaming industry outlook to
2014. Retrieved April 29, 2011 from http://www.casinoenterprisemanagement.
com/articles/january-2011/pwc%E2%80%99s-global-gaming-industry-outlook-2014.

Cargill, T. F., & Eadington, W. R. (1978). Nevada’s gaming revenues: Time
characteristics and forecasting. Management Science, 24, 1221-1230.

Cargill, T. F., & Morus, S. A. (1978). A vector autoregressive model of the Nevada
economy. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review Winter, 21-32.

Cargill, T. F., & Raffie, K. (1990). The Nevada VAR model: Update general
observations. Nevada Review of Business and Economics, 14, 2-9.

Chen, S. W. & Lin, J. L. (1999). Modelling business cycle in Taiwan with
time-varying Markov-switching models. Academia Economic Papers.

Choi, J. G. (1999). The restaurant industry: Business cycles, strategic financial
practices, economic indicators, and forecasting. Retrieved April 3, 2011 from
http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-042399-120858/unrestricted/
submit2.pdf.

Choi, J. G., Olsen, M. D., Kwansa, F. A., & Tse, E. C. Y. (1999). Forecasting
industry turning points: the US hotel industry cycle model. Hospitality Management, 18, 159-170.

Corzine, J. S., & Socolow, D. J. (2009). Governor’s annual economic report.
Retrieved April 26, 2011 from http://www.doleta.gov/Programs/2008Reports
AndPlans/Economic_Analysis_Reports/NJ.pdf.

Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation. (2008). Nevada employment
and payrolls 2008. Retrieved April 26, 2011 from http://www.nevadaworkforce.
com/admin/uploadedPublications/2758_2008_E_and_P_web.pdf.

Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation. (2009). Nevada employment
and payrolls 2009. Retrieved April 26, 2011 from http://www.nevadaworkforce.
com/admin/uploadedPublications/2824_2009_EmpPayroll_Web.pdf

Department of Numbers. (2011). Nevada job growth. Retrieved April 30, 2011 from
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/employment/nevada/.

Engel, C., & Hamilton, J. D. (1990). Long swings in the dollar: Are they in the data
and do markets know it? The American Economic Review, 80, 689-713.

Garrett, T. A. (2003). Casino Gambling in America and Its Economic Impacts.
Retrieved March 1, 2011 from http://stlouisfed.org/community_development/
assets/pdf/CasinoGambling.pdf.

Goss, E. (2002). The economic impacts of an Omaha, Nebraska casino. Retrieved
March 1, 2011 from http://typo3.creighton.edu/fileadmin/user/COBA/
EconomicOutlook/docs/gambling.pdf.

Goldfeld, K., & Quandt, R. E. (1973). A Markov model for switching regression.
Journal of Econometrics, 1, 3-16.

Goodwin, T. H. (1993). Business-cycle analysis with a Markov-switching model.
Journal of Business & Economic Statistic, 11, 331-339.

Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary
time series and the business cycle. Econometrica, 57, 357-384.

Hamilton, J. D. (1996). Specification testing in Markov-switching time-series
models. Journal of Econometrics, 70, 127-157.

Harvey, A. C. (1985). Trends and cycles in macroeconomic time series. Journal of
Business & Economic Statistics, 3, 216-227.
Herrman, D. V., Ingram, R., & Smith, W. C. (2000). Gaming in the Mississippi
economy. Retrieved April 27, 2011 from http://www.usm.edu/dewd/pdf/
Gamingstudy.pdf.

Hunsaker, J. (2001). The impact of riverboat casinos on the demand for gambling at
casino resorts: A theoretical and empirical investigation. Managerial and
Decision Economics, 22, 97-111.

Judge, G. G., Griffiths, W. E., Hill, R. C., Lutkepohl, H., & Lee, T. C. (1985). The
theory and practice of econometrics, 2nd edition, New York: Wiley.

Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Authority (2009). Vegas, Orlando, AC top list of
tourism-dependent U.S. economies. Retrieved April 26, 2011 from
http://www.appliedanalysis.com/pdf/reports/lvcvaeis/EIS_1.8_Tourism_Economies.pdf.

Li, G., Gu, X., & Siu, R. C. S. (2010). The impacts of gaming expansion on
economic growth: A theoretical reconsideration. Journal of Gambling Studies, 26, 269-285.

Liu, W. H., & Chyi, Y. L. (2006). A Markov regime-switching model for the
semiconductor industry cycles. Economic Modelling, 23, 569-578.

Madhusudhan, R. G. (1996). Betting on casino revenues: Lessons from state
experiences. National Tax Journal, 49, 401-412.

Mascarenhas, B., & Asker, D.A. (1989) Strategy over business cycle. Strategic
Management Journal, 10, 199-210.

Merla, V. A., & Chirita, S. (2010). Forecasting in tourism – Important component of
the planning process. Romanian Economic Business Review, 5, 182-187.

Mitchell, W., & Burns, A. (1938). Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals.
Retrieved April 27, 2011 from http://www.nber.org/chapters/c4251.pdf.

Moncarz, E., & Kron, R. N. (1993). Operational analysis: a case study of two hotels
in financial distress. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 12, 175-196.

Moore, W., & Whitehall, P. (2005). The tourism area lifecycle and regime
switching models. Annals of Tourism Research, 32, 112-126.

Moss, S. E., Ryan, C., & Parker, D. (2004). The effects of 911 on casino revenues: A
comparison of Mississippi and Las Vegas. Academy of Information and
Management Science Journal, 8, 33-44.

Moss, S. E., Barilla, A. G., & Moss, J. (2005). Forecasting key strategic variables in
the casino tourism industry. Academy of Information and Management Sciences
Journal, 8, 37-56.

Neftci, S. N. (1984). Are economic time series asymmetric over the business cycle.
The Journal of Political Economy, 92, 307-328.

Nelson, S., & Plosser, C. (1982). Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time
series. Journal of Monetary Economics, 10, 139-162.

PricewaterhouseCoppers (2010). The outlook for the casino and online gaming
market to 2014. Retrieved April 29, 2011 from http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/
entertainment-media/pdf/pwc-playing-to-win.pdf.

Quandt, R. E., (1972). A new approach to estimating switching regressions. Journal
of the American Statistical Association, 67, 306-310.

Rephann, T. J. (1997). Casino gambling as an economic development strategy.
Tourism Economics, 3, 161-183.

Rohel, W. S. (1994). Gambling as a tourist attraction: Trend and issues for the 21st
century. In Tourism: The State of the Art, edited by A. V. Seaton. Chichester, UK: John Wiley and Sons, 156-168.

Roehl, W. S. (1999). Quality of life issues in a casino destination. Journal of
Business Research, 44, 223-229.

Schwarz, G. (1978). Estimating the dimension of a model. Annals of Statistics, 6,
461-464.

Shonkwiler, J. S. (1992). A structural time series model of Nevada gross taxable
gaming revenue. Review of Regional Studies, 22, 239-249.

Shonkwiler, J. S. (1993). Assessing the impact of Atlantic City on Nevada gaming
revenues. Atlantic Economic Journal, 21, 50-61.

Sirakaya, E., Delen, D., & Choi, HS (2004). Forecasting gaming referenda. Annals
of Tourism Research, 32, 127-149.

Sichel, D. E. (1993). Business cycle asymmetry: A deeper look. Economic Inquiry,
31, 224-236.

Watson, M. W. (1986). Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends.
Journal of Monetary Economics, 18, 49-76.

QRCODE
 
 
 
 
 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
無相關期刊