臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

房地產是民眾重要的保值與投資的工具，近年來由於受到金融海嘯的影響，人們紛紛以房地產做為避險標的，加上投機客炒作，導致房地產價格不斷的飆漲，尤以亞洲地區為甚，因此，日益增加的學者關注房地產與總體經濟的關聯。此外，開發中國家資本市場較不健全，購屋的資金取得無法完全仰賴銀行，而需要透過民間借貸。故本文建立一包含房地產市場、貨幣市場與一般消費財市場之動態總體模型，且民眾對經濟變數之預期為完全預知，並假設經濟體系具有金融雙元性，亦即將借貸利率區分為銀行利率與民間貸款利率，在此情形下，若政府為了抑制房地產價格，提出提高所得稅率或財產稅率、增加國宅、以及調整貸款比例的房地產政策，對房地產價格與數量的長、短期效果。
研究結果發現，增加國宅短期可能會使房屋數量出現錯向調整的狀況，而政府若調整所得稅率、財產稅率、或貸款比例，短期房價出現過度調整的可能，決定因素在於價格效果與所得效果的相對大小，以及政策宣告至執行的時差大小而定。至於，長期而言，房地產政策對房價與房屋數量的影響均不明確。

Due to the impact of the financial crisis, real estate is important to people as the preservation and investment tools,. In recent years, people especially in Asia hold real estate as the subject of the hedge and peculators continued speculation which leading real estate prices rising. Therefore, an increasing number of scholars concerned about the relationship between real estate and macroeconomics. In addition, capital markets are not completely sound in developing countries, housing funds are not only dependent on bank but also on private lending. So in this paper we establish a dynamic macro model which includes real estate market, money market and general consumer goods market and assume the expectations of economic variables is perfectly rational, and the financial dualism exists in the economy. For reducing real estate prices, government can implement income or property tax rate policies, increase public housing and adjust the proportion of loans. We try to figure out the announcement effect of those policies on real estate prices and quantities.
The study found that increasing the public housing may cause the real estate quantities mis-adjustment in the short run. while the government adjust the rate of income tax, property tax rate, or the proportion of loans, real estate price will overshoot in the short run, and the determinant factors are the relative of the price effect and the income effect. In the long run, the impact of real estate policies magnitude is ambiguous.

摘要 ii
目錄 iv
表目錄 v
圖目錄 vi
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 文獻回顧 7
第三節 本文架構 11
第二章 理論模型 12
第一節 模型架構 12
第二節 比較靜態分析 15
第三節 經濟體系的動態性質 26
第三章 政策宣告分析 36
第一節 增加所得稅率政策 36
第二節 增加國宅政策 42
第三節 增加財產稅率政策 48
第四節 貸款比例 54
第四章 結論 62
參考文獻 64
註釋 66
附錄 70
表附錄 78
圖附錄 89

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