臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

The fast changing environment and the complexity of projects has increased risk exposure. Traditional tools and technologies used in the process of risk management are not appropriate owning to its static analysis attribute. The project manager perceives the importance of taking prospective tools to face the challenge and keep the effort to control the project. This research proposes a project risk dynamics model to lead the project manager how to reallocate the contingency cost under the project scope change with a holistic view. By combining the process of risk management and system dynamics analysis in the project management, early signs of risk emergence, which would remain unperceived until problems would aggravate, can be identified in the project. Hence, the project manager can take better advantage offered by System Dynamics modeling, while enhancing the performance of the existing risk management process.
Project scope change creates a series of effects and causes cost overruns that affect the schedule and lower performance in the long run. This research presents a risk dynamics framework that displays a trade-off process between cost and schedule and thereby attempts to revise the contingency cost and keep it under control. A pipeline work package is modeled and discussed.

The fast changing environment and the complexity of projects has increased risk exposure. Traditional tools and technologies used in the process of risk management are not appropriate owning to its static analysis attribute. The project manager perceives the importance of taking prospective tools to face the challenge and keep the effort to control the project. This research proposes a project risk dynamics model to lead the project manager how to reallocate the contingency cost under the project scope change with a holistic view. By combining the process of risk management and system dynamics analysis in the project management, early signs of risk emergence, which would remain unperceived until problems would aggravate, can be identified in the project. Hence, the project manager can take better advantage offered by System Dynamics modeling, while enhancing the performance of the existing risk management process.
Project scope change creates a series of effects and causes cost overruns that affect the schedule and lower performance in the long run. This research presents a risk dynamics framework that displays a trade-off process between cost and schedule and thereby attempts to revise the contingency cost and keep it under control. A pipeline work package is modeled and discussed.

Table of contents
Chapter 1 Introduction1
1.1 Background1
1.2 Research Motivation2
1.3 Research Objective3
1.4 Research Method4
1.5 Research Framework6
Chapter 2 Literature Review8
2.1 Project scope changes8
2.1.1 Causes of Project Scope Changes8
2.1.2 The Process of Scope Change Control10
2.2 Contingency Cost10
2.3 System Dynamics Method13
2.3.1 Definitions of System Dynamics13
2.3.2 The Negative and Positive Feedback Loop Structures14
2.3.3 The Basic Principle of System Dynamics14
2.3.4 System Dynamics Implementation Procedures16
2.4 System Dynamics for Project Management17
2.5 The SYDPIM Framework21
2.6 Using SYDPIM to Manage Risk Dynamics within the PMBOK Framework21
Chapter 3 Research Design24
3.1 Conceptual Framework24
3.2 Causal Loop Diagrams27
3.3 Building The Risk Dynamic Model31
Chapter 4 Modeling Pipeline Work Package32
4.1 System Dynamic Tool-Stella32
4.2 Case Background33
4.3 Model Pipeline Work Package35
4.4 Concrete Tests on Building Confidence39
4.5 Model Validation and Calibration40
4.6 Test the Impact of Policies49
Chapter 5 Conclusions and Suggestions57
5.1 Research Conclusions57
5.2 Future Research Direction58
Reference59
Appendix: Equations of SD for pipeline work case62

Figures
Figure 1-1 Overview of the SYDPIM process logic5
Figure 1-2 The framework of this thesis7
Figure 2-1 A standard system dynamics flow diagram15
Figure 2-2 Forester’s seven stage of implementation16
Figure 2-3 Tao’s system dynamics approach17
Figure 3-1 Overview of project management24
Figure 3-2 The risk dynamics model framework25
Figure 3-3 The rework cycle26
Figure 3-4 Approved process to the scope change project29
Figure 3-5 Adjustment process between cost and schedule trade-off30
Figure 4-1 Model pipeline work package38
Figure 4-2 Contingency cost on different level of scope change 42
Figure 4-3 No change at each period (0% change)43
Figure 4-4 100% change at the design phase and 0% at pipe work phase44
Figure 4-5 Contents of contingency cost (100% at design phase and 0% at pipe work phase)44
Figure 4-6 75% change at design phase and 20% change at pipe work phase47
Figure 4-7 Contents of contingency cost (75% change at design phase and 20% at pipe work phase)47
Figure 4-8 Change of overtime policy50
Figure 4-9 Change workforce policy51
Figure 4-10 Change of delivery way policy52
Figure 4-11 Canceling of delivery way policy52
Figure 4-12 Change of skipping on QA54

Tables
Table 2-1 Application of system dynamics to project management 19
Table 4-1 Possible contingency items40
Table 4-2 Contents of contingency cost data 42
Table 4-3 100% at design phase and 0% at pipe work phase 45
Table 4-4 Contents of each contingency cost item (100% at design phase and 0% at pipe work phase)45
Table 4-5 75% at design phase and 20% at pipe work phase48
Table 4-6 Contents of each contingency cost item (75% at design phase and 20% at pipe work phase)48
Table 4-7 Change of overtime policy50
Table 4-8 Change workforce policy51
Table 4-9 Change of delivery way policy53
Table 4-10 Canceling of delivery way policy53
Table 4-11 Change of Skipping on QA55

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