臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

房地產不僅影響個人居住的正義與上下游產業的發展，也是個人投資保值的重要工具，台灣房價所得倍數由1986年4.3躍升為1989年的12，隨後雖因景氣衰退房市稍微降溫，但近十年又出現攀升的趨勢，平均房價由2001年的15.72萬/坪上揚至2012年27.10萬/坪，上揚幅度逾1.72倍之多。加以1970年代台灣固定資本形成占GDP比重平均逾27%，對經濟成長貢獻達2.3個百分點，其中近一半的貢獻來自營建工程；顯示房地產與總體經濟的關係密切。
房價急速上漲，造成貧富差距擴大，導致社會不安，各國政府紛紛採行各項平抑房地產的措施。本文建構納入房地產市場的總體動態模型，探討三種房地產相關政策的宣告效果，研究結果顯示：政府提高財產稅率長期而言對房地產價格與數量的影響不確定，需視價格效果與利率效果的大小以及宣告致執行時差長短而定；短期動態調整時，房價可能出現過度(overshooting)調整的現象。政府提高所得稅率長期而言對房地產價格與數量的影響不確定，但短期房價可能出現過度調整現象。若政府興建國宅長期而言影響效果不明確，短期房屋數量可能出現錯向(mis-adjustment)或過度調整的現象。

In 1970s the fixed assets which contributed to 2.3% for economic growth of Taiwan accounted for 27% of GDP, among them the half of contribution was from the construction project. The evidence showed the real estate has closely related to macro-economy. The real estate is not only to affect the personal residence of justice but also to impact the development of upstream and downstream industries and be provided as important tools for personal investment purposes. In Taiwan, Price and Income Ratio was rising from 4.3 in 1986 to 12 in 1989. By the downturn then the housing price is dropped and began to rise in nearly a decade. The average unit housing price was rising from $157,200NTD/ping in 2001 to $271,000NTD/ping in 2012. The growth rate was approximately 172%. Rapidly rising in housing price enlarges a gap between the rich and the poor and therefore leads to social unrest. To face and solve this problem, the governments adopted policies to stabilize housing prices. In this paper we construct a macroeconomic model with the housing market and discuss the announcement effect for three real estate policies. The results showed that in the long-term, the effect of property tax rate, income tax rate and construction of public housing on house prices and stock are ambiguous. But the house prices may overshoot during the period of implementing property tax rate policy in the short run. And the construction of public housing is probably to lead houses stock mis-adjustment.

摘要 i
目 錄 iii
圖目錄 iv
表目錄 vi
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 文獻回顧 7
第三節 本文架構 10
第二章 理論模型 11
第一節 模型架構 11
第二節 比較靜態分析 16
第三節 動態性質 19
第三章 政策宣告效果分析 27
第一節 財產稅政策 27
第二節 所得稅政策 32
第三節 興建國宅政策 37
第四章 結論與政策建議 43
註釋 44
附錄 49
參考文獻 75

中文文獻：
王雅楓(2000)，《房屋市場中政府政策之宣告效果分析》，政治大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。
林素菁、林祖嘉(2001)，台灣地區住宅供給彈性之估計，《住宅學會第十屆論文集》。
吳文章(1995)，《宣示效果，體制變革與房價的動態調整》，逢甲大學經濟研究所碩士論文。
吳森田(1994)，所得、貨幣與房價-近二十年台北地區的觀察，《住宅學報》，第二期，49-65。
張金鶚、楊宗憲(2000)，台北市成屋價格泡沫知多少，《住宅學會第九屆論文集》。
蔡曜如(2003)，我國房地產市場發展、影響暨政府因應對策，《中央銀行季刊》，第二十五卷，第四期。
魏文欽、郭宗諭(2012)，影響房價變動因素之系統動態模擬(兼論奢侈稅)，《中華理論結構模式》，第五卷，第一期，31-49。
謝文盛(2001)，再論土地增值稅與住宅價格之關係，《住宅學報》，第十卷，第二期，91-105。

國外文獻：
Abel, A., (1980), “Empirical Investment Equations： An Integrative Framework, ” in K. Brunner and A. Meltzer, eds., On the State of Macroeconomics, Carnegie- Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy (Amsterdam： North-Holland), 39-91.
Blackley, D. M., (1999), “The Long-Run Elasticity of New Housing Supply in the United States： Empirical Evidence for 1950 to 1994, ”Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 18(1), 25-42.
Blanchard, O. J., (1981), “Output, Stock Market, and Interest Rates,” American Economics Review 71, 132-143.
Blanchard, O. J., (2008), “The Crisis： Basic Mechanisms, and Appropriate Policies,” IMF Working Paper, WP/09/80.
Dornbusch, R., (1976), “Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics,” Journal of Political Economy, 84, 1161-1176.
DiPasquale, D., and W. C. Wheaton (1994), “Housing Market Dynamics and the Future of Housing Prices, ” Journal of Urban Economics, 35(1), 1-27.
Foley, D. K., and M. Sidrauski, (1971), Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Growing Economy, N. Y., Macmillan.
Gray, M., and S. J. Turnovsky, (1979), “The Stability of Exchange Rate Dynamics under Perfect Myopic Foresight,” International Economic Review, 20, 643-660.
Kearl, J. R., (1979), “Inflation Mortgages and Housing, ” Journal of Political Economy, 87, 1115-1138.
Leung, C., (2004), “Macroeconomics and Housing： a Review of the Literature,” Journal of Housing Economics, 13, 249-267.
Malpeezi, S., and D. Maclennan (1996), “The Long-Run Price Elasticity of New Housing Construction in the United States and the United Kingdom, ” Manuscript.
Poterba, J. M., (1984), “Tax Subsidies to Owner­Occupied Housing,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 729-752.
Salge, M., (1997), Rational Bubbles Theoretical Basis, Economic Relevance and Empirical Evidence with a Special Emphasis on the German Stock Market, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
Topel, R. and S. Rosen, (1988), “Housing Investment in the United States, ” Journal of Political Economy, 96, 718-740.
Wilson, C. A., (1979), “Anticipated Shocks and Exchange Rate Dynamics,” Journal of Political Economy, 87, 639-647.

參考書籍：
賴景昌(1994)，《國際金融理論﹕進階篇-初版》，台北茂昌圖書有限公司。
賴景昌(2007)，《國際金融理論﹕基礎篇》，第2版，台北華泰圖書有限公司。