臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本文探討管理者同時兼具股東身分的公司治理特性下，是否會藉由提高盈餘預測準確度之途徑，用以緩和外界對公司可能存在的負面評價，以及降低對管理者在經營決策過程中可能存在的誠信疑慮。本研究以2005~2010年度中已發布自願性盈餘預測之台灣上市公司為樣本，並採用複迴歸工具以驗證本文所建構的研究假說。實證結果發現，控制股東的現金流量權、董事兼任經理人，以及董監質押比等三個公司治理特性，對管理當局盈餘預測準確度有顯著的正向影響。換言之，在前述公司治理之特性下，由於管理者本身亦是股東，此將導致其個人財富與公司價值產生連結，因此有採行降低外界對公司負面評價與未來營運不確定性疑慮之誘因。此意謂著管理者擁有公司營運的第一手資訊，透過盈餘預測資訊的發布與實際達成預測目標之成效，可發射其對公司營運發展之掌控程度與管理能力，此將有助於減緩內外部利害關係人間之資訊不對稱程度，並強化外部對公司產生正面評價之資訊利益。

This paper discusses the characteristics of corporate governance managers who are also shareholders to determine their impact on management earnings forecast accuracy and whether raising earnings forecast accuracy eases negative evaluations from sources outside the company. This study uses data from the listed companies in Taiwan that published voluntary earnings forecasts from 2005 to 2010, and uses multiple regression analysis tools to verify its hypotheses. The empirical results show that the three corporate governance characteristics of cash flow rights for controlling shareholders, executive duality, and board share collateralization ratio have a significant positive impact on management earnings forecast accuracy. In other words, among the characteristics of the aforementioned corporate governance managers is the fact that a given manager is also a shareholder, and this will link his personal wealth and the value of the company together, such that he has an incentive to reduce outside negative evaluations of the company and any uncertainty regarding future operations. This means that such managers have first-hand information about their companies operations through the release of earnings forecasts and the actual effectiveness of the objectives-related predictions that signal the degree of development in the company''s operations and management capabilities, and that this information will help lessen the extent of information asymmetry between interested internal and external parties, strengthening the information benefit of positive assessments of the company produced by the external sources.

中文摘要 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- i
英文摘要 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ii
誌謝 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- iii
目錄 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- iv
表目錄 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- v
圖目錄 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- vi

一、 緒論----------------------------------------------------------------- 1
1.1 研究背景與動機-------------------------------------------------- 1
1.2 研究目的與研究問題-------------------------------------------- 2
1.3 論文架構----------------------------------------------------------- 3
二、 文獻探討與假說推論-------------------------------------------- 5
2.1 公司治理----------------------------------------------------------- 5
2.2 董事會特性-------------------------------------------------------- 8
2.3 股權結構特性----------------------------------------------------- 10
2.4 假說推論----------------------------------------------------------- 11
三、 研究設計----------------------------------------------------------- 20
3.1 研究樣本與研究期間-------------------------------------------- 20
3.2 資料來源與樣本篩選-------------------------------------------- 20
3.3 模型設計----------------------------------------------------------- 23
3.4 變數定義----------------------------------------------------------- 23
3.5 研究架構----------------------------------------------------------- 28
四、 實證結果----------------------------------------------------------- 29
4.1 敘述統計----------------------------------------------------------- 29
4.2 相關係數分析----------------------------------------------------- 31
4.3 迴歸分析----------------------------------------------------------- 34
五、 結論與建議-------------------------------------------------------- 37
5.1 結論----------------------------------------------------------------- 37
5.2 研究建議----------------------------------------------------------- 37
5.3 研究限制----------------------------------------------------------- 38
參考文獻 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 39

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