臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

早期的消費與儲蓄行為理論，如恆常所得假說、生命週期假說等，均假設人們是生活在一個確定的環境之中，但事實上，人們的生活環境往往充滿不確定性，因此也就造成了傳統理論與現實的差距。在眾多的可能因素中，學者指出預防性儲蓄可以合理解釋許多經濟模型與現實環境不符的爭議(Abel,1985；Carroll,1997；Deaton,1992；Normandin,1994；Skinner,1988)。預防性儲蓄是人們在面對未來所得與支出不確定性時，累積財富的一種儲蓄行為，是一種為未來風險提供保險的機制(Deaton,1992；Leland,1968；Merrigan & Normandin,1996)。而同樣建築在預防不確定性的立基下，亦有學者提出了急難性基金的概念。
急難性基金與預防性儲蓄分別為財務專家與經濟學者所提出，兩者同為降低不確定性衝擊的預防手段，急難性基金主要是提供意外發生後，能夠迅速轉換現金的資產，而預防性儲蓄則為事前預防不確定下所作的儲蓄，亦強調資產流動性的重要，兩者之間具有相當程度的相關性。
在有限的資源裡，如何決定急難性基金與一般投資的最適配置，往往受到經濟個體的風險承受度所影響。當經濟個體屬於低風險承受度時，其對於急難性基金的需求較多，當經濟個體屬於高風險承受度時，則會加重在投資性資產的分配，故經濟個體在投資理財上，主要依據個人的風險承受度來決定急難性基金與投資性資產兩者間的比率分配。
本研究使用1998年美國消費者財務調查資料(Survey of Consumer Finance)，由經濟個體的財務資料，衡量經濟個體的急難性基金。採用結構方程模型(Structural Equation Model)探討急難性基金與風險承受度的因果關係。
研究中發現，當急難性基金愈高時其風險承受度亦會愈高，而當風險承受度愈高時其急難性基金反而會下降。

The theory of consumption and saving behavior like permanent income hypothesis and life cycle hypothesis all presume people live in a certain environment. But it is questionable. Scholars indicated that the theories didn’t correspond to the reality. But precautionary saving could explain the paradox between theories and reality. Like precautionary saving, emergency fund also based on preventing uncertainty.
Emergency fund and precautionary saving were addressed individually by economists and financial scholars. Both of them were used to reduce the strike of uncertainty and stressed the importance of fluidity. They have lots of similarities.
In the limited resources, it is hard to decide the optimal ratio between emergency fund and general investment. It decides by the individual risk tolerance. A person who has low risk tolerance will ask for more emergency fund. On the contrary, a person with high risk tolerance will increase the weight of the investment.
The study used the data of American survey of consumer finance. It took emergency fund and risk tolerance as endogenous variables and used the methodology of structure equation model. The mainly goal is probing into the causal relationship of emergency fund and risk tolerance. The results show that emergency fund has a positive effect toward risk tolerance, but risk tolerance affects emergency fund reversely.

第一章 緒論 4
第一節 研究動機 4
第二節 研究目的 5
第三節 論文架構 6
第二章 文獻探討 7
第一節、急難性基金 7
第二節 風險承受度 9
第三節、急難性基金與風險承受度之關聯性 12
第四節、研究假設 14
第三章 研究方法 16
第一節 資料來源 16
第二節 結構方程模型﹙SEM﹚ 17
一、模型 19
二、模式的整體適配度 20
第三節 變數的定義與衡量方式 22
一、急難性基金 22
二、風險承受度 25
第四章 實証結果 30
第一節 敘述統計分析 30
第二節 急難性基金與風險承受度之結構方程模式檢定 34
一、樣本模式之適配度檢定 34
二、SEM模式各變項之效果 35
第五章 結論與討論 46
第一節 結論與討論 47
第二節 建議 50
參考文獻 52
附錄 57
附錄一 SCF選擇變數之代號、問項及編碼 57
附錄二 急難性基金與風險承受度間接效果之求算 62
附錄三 64
附錄四 66
附錄五 68

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