臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

近幾年，台灣財政支出規模日漸擴大，收入財源又拓展不易，台灣財政赤字急遽增加，解決政府財政赤字問題，當是刻不容緩。而政府收入與政府支出乃為影響財政赤字的重要因素，究竟財政赤字的產生，是由於收入減少，亦或是支出過度增加，唯有對二者間之關係做正確之釐清，方能對症下藥，解決財政赤字日益惡化的窘況。政府支出與政府收入間之關係，一般可分為四種類型--「量入為出(tax-spend)」、「量出為入(spend-tax)」、「雙向因果關係(fiscal synchronization)」及「獨立關係(independent)」。
本文以台灣為實證對象，檢驗台灣政府之財政收支間之因果關係，所採用之因果關係檢定方法為有向圖(directed graphs)檢定方法，不同於傳統之研究；傳統研究乃利用Granger因果關係及ECM(error correction model)模型；而其主要不同在於Granger因果關係只能就兩個變數個別逐一作分析、ECM模型在個別的係數對短期動態結構之分析，無法有一個很好的解釋，而有向圖檢定方法乃將所有變數一起分析，由ECM衝擊的變化協方差矩陣，能夠重新得到同時發生因果關係之改革，並以圖形的描繪來予以說明時間數列中之動態關係，為解決變數同時發生因果關係之問題的方法論。
本文實證結果呈現台灣的財政收入與財政支出乃是分離的，其相互間並沒有「量入為出」或「量出為入」之存在，政府之支出膨脹與政府收入無關，支持「獨立關係」之假說。另在各支出間之因果關係，則呈現「社區發展及環境保護支出」為「經濟發展支出」及「退休撫卹支出」之「果」，相反的，「經濟發展支出」及「退休撫卹支出」則為「社區發展及環境保護支出」的「因」。而「一般政務支出」同時為「債務支出」與「經濟發展支出」之「果」，換言之，「債務支出」與「經濟發展支出」為「一般政務支出」之「因」，故在各項支出間，存在因果關係。

For these years, the expenditure of Taiwan government has been expanded drastically. Meanwhile, it was very difficult for the government to increase financial resource. As a result, the government’s fiscal deficit has been escalating. It demands our immediate attention to face the deficit problem.
In this study, we intended to explore the empirical causal evidences between expenditure and revenue in Taiwan. We applied the directed graphs, which is very different from the traditional methods. Error correction model (ECM) analyzes the individual coefficient and the short-term movement construction. According to ECM’s innovation covariance chart, we can obtain the evolution of the causation at the same time, and can draw graphs to show the movement relation between the sequence to solve the problem of the covariance and the causation.
The study showed that there are no relationships between Taiwan’s fiscal revenue and expenditure. There exists neither “tax-spend” nor “spend-tax” relationship. The government’s expanding expenditure and the government’s revenue are not related, which supports the independent hypothesis. The causations among expenditures are summarized as follows. “Expenditures for Community Development & Environmental Protection” is the effect of both “Expenditures Economic Development” and “Expenditures for Pension & Survivors’ Benefits”. On the other hand, “Expenditures Economic Development” and “Expenditures for Pension & Survivors’ Benefits” are the causes for “Expenditures for Community Development & Environmental Protection”. And “Expenditures for General Administration” is the effect for both “Obligations” and “Expenditures Economic Development”. In other words, “Obligations” and “Expenditures Economic Development” are the causes for “Expenditures for General Administration”. Hence, there exist causation relationships among expenditures.

第一章 緒論........................................1
第一節 研究動機與目的............................1
第二節 論文架構..................................7
第二章 文獻回顧....................................8
第一節 財政赤字的成因............................8
一、政府支出規模擴大的主要文獻.................8
二、我國財政概況..............................11
三、本節結語..................................25
第二節 財政收支因果關係.........................26
一、量入為出(tax-spend).......................26
二、量出為入(spend-tax).......................30
三、雙向「因果關係(fiscal synchronization)」..32
四、獨立關係(independent).....................34
五、本節結語..................................34
第三節 本章結語.................................37
第三章 研究方法...................................38
第一節 模型簡介.................................38
一、單根檢定（Unit Root Test）................38
二、Granger因果關係...........................40
三、共積（Cointegration ）理論與檢定方法......42
四、有向圖（Directed Graphs）分析法...........45
第二節 本章結語.................................48

第四章 台灣財政收支因果關係之實證分析.............50
第一節 資料處理.................................50
第二節 估計方法.................................51
第三節 實證結果.................................53
一、單根檢定..................................53
二、共積檢定..................................55
三、有向圖檢定................................62
第四節 本章結語.................................71
第五章 結論與建議................................72
第一節 結論.....................................72
第二節 未來研究方向與建議.......................74
參考文獻..........................................75

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