臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本論文探討分析師額外預測對於投資者資訊解讀以及管理者投機行為的影響，共分為兩個子題。第一個子題檢視當分析師僅提供盈餘預測時，應計項目錯誤評價是否加劇？當分析師提供額外預測時，應計項目錯誤評價是否減輕？分析師盈餘預測與額外提供其他預測透過影響投資者對盈餘的注意、評估盈餘持續性的能力、盈餘對公司價值評估的重要性，進而影響投資者對盈餘的依賴以及應計項目錯誤評價。在控制應計項目錯誤評價的因素、公司治理變數、預測特徵、內生性問題之後，本論文發現一致的證據顯示分析師預測的類型對於應計項目錯誤評價具有顯著的影響。
第二個子題探討分析師營收預測是否加劇盈餘操縱行為，分析師營收預測雖然提高盈餘操縱行為的透明度，但是亦同時提高管理者操縱盈餘與盈餘組成項目的誘因。本論文使用跨時期的研究設計，研究結果指出在分析師開始提供營收預測之後，管理者盈餘操縱行為，包括應計項目與營收操縱、實質盈餘管理、盈餘科目移轉等，皆顯著地加劇，然而控制組並未有盈餘操縱行為加劇的現象。此外，盈餘操縱行為加劇的現象在沙賓法案之前較為嚴重。
整體而言，本論文指出雖然分析師額外預測將投資者部分的注意力從盈餘身上轉到其他盈餘組成項目，但是分析師營收預測的提供亦提高管理者同時操縱盈餘與盈餘組成項目的誘因，並驅使管理者透過多元的盈餘操縱方式同時打敗不同的績效目標。對於分析師營收預測與現金流量預測在盈餘操縱方面具有不同的影響，一個可能的解釋是因為公司成長的潛力在公司價值評估過程中扮演非常重要的角色，而分析師營收預測正好提供公司成長性的資訊，進一步凸顯分析師營收預測的重要性。

The two essays in my dissertation explore the effects of analyst supplementary forecasts on investor information interpretation and manager’s myopic behaviors. The first essay investigates whether accruals mispricing is aggravated when analysts provide earnings forecasts alone and is mitigated when analysts provide supplementary forecasts. This paper hypothesizes that the provision of analyst earnings forecasts alone or supplementary forecasts influences investor earnings fixation and thus accruals mispricing through investor’s attention toward earnings, the ability to access earnings persistence, and the usefulness of earnings in firm valuation. This paper documents consistent evidence that the types of analyst forecasts influence accruals mispricing, after controlling for the factors of accruals mispricing, corporate governance, forecast characteristics, and endogeneity issues.
The second essay examines whether analyst revenue forecasts trigger more earnings management. This paper hypothesizes that analyst revenue forecasts increase the transparency of earnings management as well as the incentives to manipulate earnings and earnings components. Based on an inter-temporal research design, this paper documents significant evidence that managers use more accruals and revenue management, real activity manipulation, and income classification shifting after analysts start to provide revenue forecasts in addition to earnings forecasts. Such increases in earnings management are not found in control firms and are more pronounced before the Sarbanes-Oxley Act.
Combined together, my dissertation suggests that although analyst supplementary forecasts direct investor’s attention toward earnings components other than earnings, the provision of analyst revenue forecasts increases manager’s incentives to manipulate earnings and earnings components at the same time through multiple earnings management tactics to meet different performance targets simultaneously. One explanation for the different effect of revenue forecasts on earnings management, compared with cash flow forecasts, is the importance of growth information in firm valuation, which is likely to be contained in revenue forecasts.

TABLE OF CONTENTS
摘要…………………………………………………...……………........................... I
ABSTRACT…………………………………………………...…………….............. II
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT………………………………………………………….. III
TABLE OF CONTENTS……………………………………………………............ IV
LIST OF TABLES……………………………………………………………........... VI
ESSAY I: THE EFFECT OF ANALYST EARNINGS AND SUPPLEMENTARY REVENUE AND CASH FLOW FORECASTS ON ACCRUALS MISPRICING
1. INTRODUTION……………………………………………………………............. 1
2. RELATED STUDIES AND HYPOTHESIS DEVELOPMENT……………….... 4
2.1 LITERATURE ON ACCRUALS MISPRICING…………………………………………………... 4
2.2 RECENT STUDIES ON ANALYST SUPPLEMENTARY FORECASTS………………………... 6
2.3 HYPOTHESIS DEVELOPMENT…………………………………………………………............. 8
3. RESEARCH DESIGN AND SAMPLE SELECTION…………………………… 10
3.1 MEASUREMENT OF ACCRUALS AND FUTURE STOCK RETURNS……………………….. 10
3.2 MEASUREMENT OF EXPLANATORY VARIABLES…………………………………………... 10
3.3 MULTIVARIATE REGRESSION AND CONTROL VARIABLES………………………………. 11
3.4 SAMPLE SELECTION……………………………………………………………………………. 11
4. EMPIRICAL RESULTS…………………………………………………………… 12
4.1 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS……………………………………………………………………… 12
4.2 PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS OF TOTAL ACCRUALS MISPRICING……………………………… 13
4.3 REGRESSION RESULTS OF TOTAL ACCRUALS MISPRICING……………………………... 13
4.4 DISCRETIONARY ACCRUALS MISPRICING………………………………………………….. 15
4.5 ENDOGENEITY ISSUE…………………………………………………………………………… 17
4.6 ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS……………………………………………………………….. 20
4.7 IMPROVED FORECAST ACCURACY…………………………………………………………... 21
4.8 PRE-SOX AND POST-SOX PERIOD……………………………………………………………... 22
4.9 THE TIMING OF ANALYST FORECASTS………………………………………………............ 22
4.10 FIRM CHARACTERISTICS……………………………………………………………............... 23
4.11 OTHER SENSITIVITY TESTS……………………………………………………………........... 24
5. CONCLUSION………………………………………………………………........... 25
REFERENCE………………………………………………………………….............. 27

ESSAY II: THE EFFECT OF ANALYST REVENUE FORECAST ON EARNINGS MANAGEMENT
1. INTRODUTION……………………………………………………………............. 46
2. RELATED STUDIES AND HYPOTHESIS DEVELOPMENT……………….... 51
2.1 RELATED STUDIES ON ACCRUALS AND REVENUE MANAGEMENT…………………..... 51
2.2 RELATED STUDIES ON REAL ACTIVITY MANIPULATION………………..……………...... 52
2.3 RELATED STUDIES ON INCOME CLASSIFICATION SHIFTING………..……………........... 53
2.4 RECENT STUDIES ON ANALYST REVENUE FORECASTS………..…………….................... 54
2.5 HYPOTHESIS DEVELOPMENT…………………………………………………………............. 56
3. RESEARCH DESIGN AND SAMPLE SELECTION…………………………… 57
3.1 MEASURING ACCRUALS AND REVENUE MANAGEMENT………………………………... 57
3.2 MEASURING REAL ACTIVITY MANIPULATION………………………………...................... 59
3.3 MEASURING INCOME CLASSIFICATION SHIFTING………………………………………... 60
3.4 EMPIRICAL MODEL……………………………………………………………………………... 61
3.5 SAMPLE SELECTION……………………………………………………………………………. 62
4. EMPIRICAL RESULTS…………………………………………………………… 63
4.1 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS……………………………………………………………………… 63
4.2 UNIVARIATE ANALYSIS………………………………………………………………………… 64
4.3 CHANGE IN ACCRUALS AND REVENUE MANAGEMENT……………………………......... 65
4.4 CHANGE IN REAL ACTIVITY MANIPULATION……………………………………………… 66
4.5 CHANGE IN INCOME CLASSIFICATION SHIFTING…………………………………………. 67
4.6 CHANGE IN EXPECTATION MANAGEMENT………………………………………………… 68
4.7 CHANGE IN EARNINGS BENCHMARK BEATING…………………………………………… 68
4.8 EARNINGS MANAGEMENT TACTICS AND EARNINGS BENCHMARK…………………... 70
4.9 EARNINGS MANAGEMENT TACTICS AND REVENUE BENCHMARK…............................. 71
4.10 EARNINGS MANAGEMENT TACTICS AND EXPENSE BENCHMARK…………………… 72
4.11 PRE-SOX AND POST-SOX PERIOD……………………………………………………………. 74
4.12 CHANGE IN EARNINGS MANAGEMENT TACTICS OF CONTROL FIRMS………………. 74
4.13 OTHER SENSITIVITY TESTS…………………………………………………………………... 76
5. CONCLUSION………………………………………………………………........... 79
REFERENCE………………………………………………………………….............. 80

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