臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究主要目的在於探討盈餘管理對分析師盈餘預測之影響，研究中以2007年第四季券商分析師盈餘預測為對象，採用advanced Jones model異常應計數作為盈餘管理之衡量。實證結果發現，盈餘管理與分析師盈餘預測準確度呈負向關係，顯示分析師在高盈餘管理公司之預測準確度較高。此實證結果可能之解釋為，由於企業傾向盈餘平穩化之管理方式；因此，降低盈餘變異(風險)程度，進而提高分析師盈餘預測準確度。

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of earnings management on analysts’ earnings forecasts. The research firms in the fourth quarter of 2007, analysts forecast earnings targets, the use of advanced Jones model abnormal accruals as a measure of earnings management. Empirical results show that earnings management and analyst earnings forecast accuracy to the relationship between negative, indicating the high earnings management analyst in the company's higher forecast accuracy. The empirical results of this may be interpreted as corporate earnings tend to smooth the way of management;, therefore, reduce the earnings variability (risk) levels, thereby increasing the accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts.

中文摘要　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． iii
英文摘要　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． iv
誌謝辭　　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． v
內容目錄　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． vi
表目錄　　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． viii
圖目錄　　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． ix
第一章　　緒論．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 1
　　第一節　　研究背景與動機．．．．．．．．．．． 1
　　第二節　　研究目的．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 3
　　第三節　　研究架構．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 3
　　第四節　　研究流程與章節架構．．．．．．．．． 4
第二章　　文獻探討．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 6
　　第一節　　公司治理．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 6
　　第二節　　企業盈餘管理行為．．．．．．．．．． 8
　　第三節　　資訊揭露與分析師盈餘預測．．．．．． 22
第三章　　研究方法與設計．．．．．．．．．．．．． 29
　　第一節　　研究假說發展．．．．．．．．．．．． 29
　　第二節　　樣本選取與資料來源．．．．．．．．． 30
　　第三節　　變數操作性定義．．．．．．．．．．． 30
　　第四節　　實證模型．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 39
　　註　釋　　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 40
第四章　　研究結果與討論．．．．．．．．．．．．． 41
　　第一節　　敘述統計．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 41
　　第二節　　相關分析．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 43
　　第三節　　券商分析師盈餘預測準確度影響因素．． 45
第五章　　結論與建議．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 49
　　第一節　　研究結論．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 49
　　第二節　　研究限制與建議．．．．．．．．．．． 50
參考文獻．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 51

一、中文部份

汪進揚，余俊憲(2004)，財務分析師預測準確度和預測行為之研究，證券市場發展季刊，16(4)，117-144。

汪健全(1993)，台灣地區影響財務分析盈餘預估準確度因素之實證研究，台灣大學商學研究所未出版之碩士論文。

吳郁萱(2006)，公司資訊透明度、分析師跟隨與公司績效之關聯性，政治大學會計研究所未出版之碩士論文。

吳心儀(2001)，分析師預測誤差與公司特性的關聯性，元智大學管理學研究所碩士論文。

施岑佩(1995)，盈餘可預測性與財務分析師之預測偏差性研究，政治大學會計研究所論文。

范玥琪(1997)，財務預測誤差決定性因素之研究，彰化師範大學商業教育學研究所未出版碩士論文。

黃敏助(1991)，八十年代證券投資策略鑫典。

林君怡(2002)，門檻心理下之盈餘管理，台灣大學會計研究所未出版之碩士論文。


許秀賓(1993)，財務分析師盈餘預測優越性決定因素－實證研究，會計評論，27(1)，137-158。

游智賢，洪碧霞(2006)，分析師之盈餘預測－公司特性之偏好與盈餘預測修正之市場反應，證券市場發展季刊，18(2)，41-48。

歐進士，李佳玲，詹茂昆(2004)，臺灣企業盈餘管理與經營風險關聯之實證研究，風險管理學報，6(2)，181-206。

鄧名堯(2008)，資訊透明度與分析師跟隨對盈餘預測影響之研究，中國文化大學會計研究所碩士論文。

二、英文部分

Abarbanell, J. S., & Bernard, V. L. (1992). Tests of analysts’ over-reaction/underreaction to earnings information as an explana-tion for anomalous stock price behavior. The Journal of Finance, 47(3), 1181-1207.

Ajinkya, B. B., Atiase, R. K., & Gift, M. J. (1991). Volume of trading and the dispersion in financial analysts’ earnings forecasts. The Accounting Review, 66(2), 389-401.

Alkhafaji, A. F. (1990). Effective boards of directors: An overviews. Industrial Management and Data Systems, 90 (4), 18-26.

Barron, O. E., & Stuerke, P. (1998). Dispersion in analysts’ earnings forecasts as a measure of uncertainty. Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance, 13 (3), 245-270.

Bartov, E. (1993). The timing of asset sales and earnings manipulate- ion. The Accounting Review, 68(4), 840-855.

Beattie, V., Brown, S., Ewers, D., John, B., Manson, S., Thomas, D., & Turner, M. (1994). Extraordinary items and income smoothi- ng: A positive accounting approach. Journal of Business Finan- ce & Accounting, 21(6), 791-811.

Beaver, W. H. (2002). Perspectives on recent capital market research. The Accounting Review, 77(2), 453-474.

Bhushan, R. (1988). Firm characteristic and analyst following. Jour-nal of Accounting and Economics, 11(2-3), 255-274.

Bodnar, C., Tang, C., & Weintrop, J. (1999). Both sides of corporate diversification：The value impacts of geographical and indus-trial diversification. Unpublished manuscript, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia.

Brown, L. D., Hagerman, R. L., Griffin, P. A., & Zmijewski, M. E. (1987). Security analyst superiority relative to univariate time-series models in forecasting quarterly earnings. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 9(1), 61-87.

Brown, L. D., Richardson, G. D., & Schwager, S. J. (1987). An in-formation interpretation of financial analyst superiority in forecasting Earnings. Journal of Accounting Research, 25(1), 49-67.

Chiang, H. T. (2005). Analysts’ financial forecast accuracy and in-formation transparency. Journal of American Academy of Busi-ness, Cambridge, 7(2), 164-167.

Cooper, R. A., Day T. E., & Lewis, C. M. (2001). Following the lead-er: A study of individual analysts’ earnings forecasts. Journal of Financial Economics, 61(3), 383-416.

Das, S., Levine, C. B., & Sivaramakrishnan, K. (1998). Earnings pre-dictability and bias in analyst’s earnings forecasts. The Ac-counting Review, 73 (2), 277-294.

DeAngelo, L. E. (1986). Accounting numbers as market valuation substitutes: A study of management buyouts of public stockhol- ders. The Accounting Review ,61 (3), 400-420

De Bondt, W. F. M., & Forbes, W. P. (1999). Herding in analyst earnings forecasts: Evidence from the United Kingdom. European Financial Management, 5(2), 143-163.

De Bondt, W. F. M., & Thaler, R. H. (1990). Do security analysts overreact? The American Economic Review, 80(2), 52-57.

Dechow, P. M., & Sloan, R. G. (1991). Executive incentives and the horizon problem: An empirical investigation. Journal of Accou- nting and Economics, 14(1), 51-89.

Dechow, P. M., Sloan, R. G., & Sweeney, A. P. (1995). Detecting earnings management. The Accounting Review, 70(2), 193-225.

Dreman, D. N., & Berry, M. A. (1995). Analyst forecasting error and implications for security analysis. Financial Analysts Journal, 51(3), 30-41.

Duru, A., & Reeb, D. M. (2002). International diversification and analysts’ forecast accuracy and Bias. The Accounting Review, 77(2), 415-433.

Easterwood, J. C., & Nutt, S. R. (1999). Inefficiency in analysts’ earnings forecasts: Systematic misreaction or systematic optimism. The Journal of Finance, 54(5), 1777-1797.

Eng, L. L., & Teo, H. K. (1999). The relation between annual report disclosures, analysts’ earnings forecasts, and analyst following: evidence from Singapore. Pacific Accounting Review, 11(2), 219-239.

Francis, J., Hanna, J. D., & Vincent, L. (1996). Causes and effects of discretionary asset write-offs. Journal of Accounting Research, 34(Supplement), 117-134.

Fried, D., & Givoly, D. (1982). Financial analysts’ forecasts of earn-ings: A better surrogate for market expections. Journal of Ac-counting and Economics, 4(2), 85-107.

Gaver, J. J., & Paterson, J. S. (2001). The association between exter-nal monitoring and earnings management in the proper-ty-casualty insurance industry. Journal of Accounting Research, 39(2), 269- 282.

Gelb, D. S., & Zarowin, P. (2002). Corporate disclosure policy and the informativeness of stock prices. Review of Accounting Stu-dies, 7(1), 33-52.

Givoly, D., & Lakonishok, J. (1979). The information content of fi-nancial analysts’ forecast of earnings: Some evidence on semi-strong inefficiency. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 1(3), 165-185.

Gu, Z., & Wu, J. (2003). Earnings skewness and analysts’ forecast bias. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 35(1), 5-29.

Hagerman, R. L., & Zimijewski, M. E. (1979). Some economic de-terminants of accounting policy choice. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 1(2), 141-161.

Healy, P. (1985). The impact of bonus schemes on the selection of accounting principles. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 7(1-3), 85-107.

Healy, P. M., & Wahlen, J. M. (1999). A review of the earnings man-agement literature and its implications for standards setting. American Accounting Association, 13(4), 365-383.

Hong, H., Lim, T., & Stein, J. (2000). Bad news travel slowly: Size, analyst coverage, and the profitability of momentum strategies. Journal of Finance, 55(1), 265-295.

Hope, O. K. (2003a). Disclosure practices, enforcement of accounting standards, and analyst’ forecast accuracy: An international study. Journal of Accounting Research, 41(2), 235-272.

Hope, O. K. (2003b). Accounting policy disclosures and analysts’ forecasts. Contemporary Accounting Research, 20(2), 295-321.

Iranl, A. J., & Karamanou, I. (2003). Regulation fair disclosure, ana-lyst following, and analyst forecast dispersion. Accounting Ho-rizons, 17(1), 15-29.

Jones, J. J. (1991). Earnings management during import relief inves-tigations. Journal of Accounting Research, 29(2), 193 -228.

Kothari, S., Leone, A., & Wasley, C. (2005). Performance matched discretionary accrual measures. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 39(1), 163-197

Kross, W., Ro, B., & Schroeder, D. (1990). Earnings expectation: The analysts’ information advantage. The Accounting Review, 65(2), 461-476.

Lang, M. H., & Lundholm, R. J. (1996). Corporate disclosure policy and analyst behavior. The Accounting Review, 71(4), 467-492.

Lim, T. (2001). Rationality and analysts’ forecast bias. The Journal of Finance, 56(1), 369-385.

Lys, T., & Sohn, S. (1990). The association between revisions of ana-lysts’ earnings forecasts and security price changes. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 13(4), 341- 363.

McNichols, M., & Wilson, G. P. (1988). Evidence of earnings man-agement from the provision for bad debts. Journal of Account-ing Research, 26(0), 1-31.

Moses, O. D. (1987). Income smoothing and incentives: Empirical tests using accounting changes. The Accounting Review, 62(2), 358-377.

O’Brien, P. C. (1988). Analysts’ forecasts as earnings expectations. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 10(1), 53-83.

Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development. (2004). OECD principles of corporate governance [Online]. Available: http:// www.oecd.org/dataoecd/32/18/31557724.pdf [2008, De-cember 8].

Schipper, K. (1989). Commentary on earnings management. Ac-counting Horizons, 3(4), 91-102.

Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1997). A survey of corporate gover-nance. Journal of Finance, 25(3), 737-783.

Wahlen, J. M. (1994). The nature of information in commercial bank loan loss disclosures. The Accounting Review, 69(3), 455-478.

Watts, L. W., & Zimmerman, J. L. (1978). Towards a positive theory of the determination of accounting standards. The Accounting Review, 53(1), 112-134.