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研究生:黃俊熹
研究生(外文):Huang, Chun-Hsi
論文名稱:大陸房地產投資風險管理之研究
論文名稱(外文):Risk Management For Real Estate Investment in China
指導教授:彭雲宏彭雲宏引用關係
指導教授(外文):Ph. D. Yeng-Horng Perng
學位類別:博士
校院名稱:國立臺灣科技大學
系所名稱:營建工程系
學門:工程學門
學類:土木工程學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2000
畢業學年度:88
語文別:中文
論文頁數:147
中文關鍵詞:風險管理、房地產投資、中國大陸
外文關鍵詞:Risk Management、Real Estate Investment、China
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:23
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  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:3
面對著市場龐大、前景可觀的大陸房地產市場,不管是其本國或國外之建設投資業者,均對其有相當大之興趣。但實際進行投資時,需面對變動快速、區域行情差異性大、投資法令多變、行政程序繁瑣、投資成本計算複雜等不確定狀況變數,也令投資者帶有強烈不安全感。二者交織成投資大陸房地產的矛盾情結。
本研究整理國際房地產投資者的考量因素,以SWOT架構分析大陸政經社會情勢,了解外商進入大陸房地產業之優勢與劣勢,機會與威脅點,辨識外商在大陸投資的競爭優勢,然後以影響圖建構各因素彼此關係,經敏感度分析後得到:房地產政策、官僚政治、空置面積、房地產市場景氣和市場資訊正確性為最敏感的因子。經由以上五個狀態變數,對成本單價、售價、銷售率和專案時間的影響程度作分析,可得此四運算數值的分布,依以上分布經蒙地卡羅分析可得其投資報酬率分布情形,根據這分布結果和風險分析循環過程,可提供管理者建立決策模式,並且可以思考面對風險的態度。
This study compiles the factors exerted by international real estate investors and charts their relationship in SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis and influence diagram. A sensitivity analysis is conducted by examining variables including real estate policy, bureaucracy, vacant housing, real estate outlook, and accurate market information. The effects of these five variables on the unit cost, sales price, selling rate, and project duration are analyzed to ascertain the distribution of the four calculated quantities. Furthermore, the rate of return distribution may be isolated via the Monte-Carlo Simulation based on the aforementioned distribution. This distribution results and risk analysis could also enable managers to make decisions.
封面
摘要
ABSTRACT
誌謝
目錄
圖目錄
表目錄
第一章 緒論
1.1 研究動機與目的
1.2 研究範圍與內容
1.3 研究方法與步驟
第二章 文獻回顧
2.1 FDI與大陸投資
2.1.1 FDI定義與理論
2.1.2 跨國投資因素分析
2.1.3 跨國投資評估因素分類
2.2 房地產投資開發
2.2.1 房地產開發之定義
2.2.2 房地產開發流程
2.3 大陸房地產
2.3.1 現況介紹
2.3.2 投資大陸房地產風險
2.4 投資模式策略
2.4.1 投資模式種類
2.4.2 投資模式選類
2.5 風險管理
2.5.1 風險管理的意義
2.5.2 風險辨識
2.5.3 風險分析
2.5.4 建立風險分析模型
2.5.5 風險分析技術
2.5.6 投資決策基準
2.5.7 風險處理
2.6 小結
第三章 大陸房地產市場分析
3.1 大陸投資環境分析
3.1.1 大陸政府與房地產政策
3.1.2 大陸經濟發展
3.1.3 大陸社會情勢
3.2 大陸房地產市場
3.2.1 大陸房地產市場結構特色
3.2.2 大陸住宅市場供需分析
3.2.3 大陸房地產投資分析
3.3 大陸房地產投資開發與程序
3.3.1 大陸房地產開發公司設立程序
3.3.2 大陸房地產開發程序
3.3.3 大陸房地產開發企業
3.4 北京房地產個案投資分析
3.4.1 北京個案背景分析
3.4.2 北京個案建築基本資料
3.4.3 北京個案投資財務分析
3.5 小結
第四章 大陸房地產風險評估模型建立
4.1 風險模型建構流程
4.1.1 評估策略確定
4.1.2 投資目標建立
4.2 風險辦識
4.2.1 風險因子
4.2.2 風險因子分類
4.2.3 決策變數之替選方法
4.2.4 影響圖建立
4.3 風險分析
4.3.1 運算數值預設分析
4.3.2 價值模型建立
4.3.3 敏感度分析
4.3.4 縮減影響圖
4.3.5 狀態變數說明
4.3.6 機率決定
4.3.7 相關係數探討
4.3.8 蒙地卡羅分析結果
4.4 風險處理
4.5 投資大陸房地產建議
4.6 小結
第五章 結論與建議
5.1 結論
5.2 後續研究建議
參考文獻
附錄一 大陸房地產相關名詞
附錄二 大陸房地產開發相關稅費
附錄三 北京個案開發投資計算
附錄四 風險分析結果-機率分析部份
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