臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

傳統上, 央行藉操作短期名目利率調控國內物價及產出。然而於利率已降至極低水平期間, 此道貨幣政策傳遞機制功效令人存疑。本文試圖回答: 日本貨幣政策在利率管道上之效果是否隨時間而有所變化? 另外, 在近年低利率環境下, 大規模寬鬆貨幣政策透過該管道對於實質變數影響為何? 本文運用貝氏 (Bayesian) 統計理論與馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法 (Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC) 估計時變參數向量自我迴歸模型 (time-varying parameter vector autoregression) 得到以下結論: 一、 1975-2015 年間, 日本利率管道效果及外生衝擊影響於不同期間呈異質性。二、日本利率政策衝擊在 1990 年後對產出及失業率無顯著正面影響, 支持近年其貨幣政策難以透過利率管道提振景氣的論點。

Monetary authorities typically manipulated short-term nominal interest rate in order to smooth domestic price and production. However, the effectiveness of such policy become doubtful when the nominal interest rate is close to the zero lower bound. This paper applies Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to estimate a time-varying parameter model and attempts to evaluate the effectiveness of Japanese monetary policies through interest rate channel in recent years. The main empirical conclusions of the paper are as follows. First, the effect of monetary policy through the interest rate channel as well as exogenous shocks show time varying effects between 1975 and 2015. Second, a shock of decreasing interest rate have little positive effect on the production and the unemployment rate, which is supported by the view that the quantitative easing policy in recent years is difficult to stimulate the economy through the interest rate channel.

謝詞 i
摘要 ii
Abstract iii
1 前言 1
1.1 日本貨幣寬鬆政策 2
1.2 貨幣政策傳遞機制 3
1.3 向量自我迴歸模型 (VAR) 4
1.4 相關文獻 5
2 模型 8
2.1 TVP-SVAR 8
2.2 估計 10
2.3 收斂評估 14
3 總體經濟實證與模擬 16
3.1 資料 16
3.2 設定 18
3.3 結果 19
3.4 穩健度測試 24
4 結論 28
參考文獻 30
A 附錄 34
A.1 Kalman Filter 34
B 圖附錄 36
B.1 相關時間序列 36
B.2 模擬結果 44
B.3 其他模擬結果 53
B.4 收斂檢定結果 63

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