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Thesis topic︰
The Prediction of Risky Enterprise Distress — pages ︰73
The Comparison of Cash Management Model,
Financial Ratio Model, Cash Flow Model, And Mixed Model
University (college)︰Management Graduate School of Fu-Jen University
Graduate time︰88 academic year, second semester, Master academic degrees abstract
Graduate student︰Chi-Rou Lai Advice professor︰Dr. Kuei-Yen Wu
Abstract︰
Because if being able to prefigure out the sign of worse enterprise operation, the managed authorities can take some efficient actions properly to improve and avoid the worse managed status going on. In a word, a warning model of enterprise financial distress with predictive function is not only showing out the warning before risky distress happened for enterprise but also good for investors, the credit of banks, and control of security authorities.
The research tries to create a cash management model, which is according to the companies in public that suffering to be the list for full delivery stock, stock departing from market, or temporary ceasing operation stock as the samples during 1990- 1999. In addition, it’s based on initial time of the falling stocks’ price to be the one of failure point, and also being taken “failure point” to define the time suffering from full delivery stock, stock departing from market, or temporary ceasing operation stock in the traditional research as another one. Then, test the accurate rate of classification for cash management model under these two kinds of failure point. At the same time, make the compare and contrast with financial rate model, cash flow model, and mixed model. At last, test whether if business condition factor affect the accurate rate of model classification or not. The following statement is for the results of this research.
1. As for the elastic respect of cash balance to the transaction volume, Distress Company is less than well-organized one obviously under the failure point according to the huge falling stocks’ price. But, it has no found like that for the elastic respect of cash balance rate to interest rate.
2.The average number of the dynamic adjusted rate for Distress Company is higher than well-organized one obviously if taking huge falling stocks’ price as the failure point.
3. The accurate rate of classification is higher than static one obviously for dynamic cash management model.
4.Under two kinds of failure points above-mentioned, it’s better than the model without business condition factor as to the accurate rate of classification in the cash management model with business condition factor.
5.Comparing with each model︰
（1）Comparison among financial ratio model, cash flow model, and cash management model
For single model, the accurate rate of classification in dynamic cash management model isn’t better than that in traditional cash flow model or financial ratio model.
（2）Comparison between mixed and single model
It’s better than the rate in single model as to the accurate rate of classification in mixed model by the definition for two kinds of failure points. And added cash management variables in the warning model of enterprise distress really contributes to the accurate rate of prediction indeed. If there is business condition factor in mixed model, the accurate rate of classification will be better than that not included business condition factor.
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